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Research and Analysis
Mexico's "Narco-Refugees": The Looming Chal- lenge for U.S. National Security, by Dr. Paul Rexton Kan. Due to the ongoing and brutal drug cartel violence that has gripped portions of Mexico, there has been a rise in the number of Mexican nationals seeking political asylum in the United States to escape the violence in their home country. This monograph focuses on the asylum claims of these "narco-refugees" who are unwillingly leaving Mexico, and it reviews the special challenges these asylum seekers pose to U.S. national security interests and public safety.

Presidential Succession Scenarios in Egypt and Their Impact on U.S.-Egyptian Strategic Relations, by Gregory Aftandilian. This monograph explores the critical question of who might succeed President Hosni Mubarak by examining various succession scenarios in Egypt. Given the extensive political, security, and economic ties between the United States and Egypt, the monograph also examines the policy implications of each of these scenarios and makes recommendations for U.S. policymakers.

Puncturing the Counterinsurgency Myth: Britain and Irregular Warfare in the Past, Present, and Future, by Dr. Andrew Mumford. Far from being the counterinsurgency exemplars that history has benevolently cast them, this monograph posits 10 myths of British counterinsurgency to debunk key elements of British performance in irregular warfare from Malaya to Iraq.

Natural Gas as an Instrument of Russian State Power, by Alexander Ghaleb. This monograph supports Robert Gates's recent assessment that NATO could face a dim if not dismal future; not because of funding considerations, but because NATO decisions are made by consensus, and many members will be unlikely to side against Russia in the future because of their heavy dependency on Russian Natural Gas.

The Afghanistan Question and the Reset in U.S.-Russian Relations , by Dr. Richard J. Krickus. The ability of the United States and Russia to cooperate in Afghanistan represents a solid test of their reset in relations. Skeptics in Washington cite the value gap that separates the two sides as well as compelling evidence that the Kremlin is bent on a course of confrontation and not cooperation with the West. Russian critics claim that there is no justification for Moscow to help Washington in what many Kremlin overlords believe is a losing cause.

Coming Soon
Arms Control and Proliferation Challenges to the Reset Policy, by Stephen J. Blank

Russian Nuclear Weapons, Past, Present, and Future, edited by Stephen J. Blank

Chinese Lessons from Other Peoples' Wars, edited by Andrew Scobell, David Lai, and Roy Kamphausen.

Monthly Op-Ed
China's Aircraft Carrier: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly, by Dr. David Lai.

Articles and Briefs
SSI Opportunities
The Academic Engagement Program request for proposals (RFP) is open. Scroll to the bottom of the announcement on and contact Mr. Karol to begin the process. Amendment #1 for the Academic Colloquia can be obtained from Mr. Karol. More about the Academic Engagement Program.

Upcoming Events
XXIII USAWC Annual Strategy Conference
The Future of U.S. Grand Strategy in an Age of Austerity: Challenges and Opportunities
April 10-12, 2012 — Carlisle, PA

News & Resources
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On September 19-20, Dr. Stephen Blank presented a paper on Russian views on multipolarity in Asia to the East-West Center-Naval Postgraduate School conference: "Beyond Dominance in Asia" in Washington, D.C.

On September 14-15, Dr. Jeffrey McCausland and Dr. David Lai attended and served as discussants at the "Trilateral Workshop on Bilateral Alliance Politics and Intra-spoke Relations in Asia" in Tokyo, Japan. This workshop is part of the Southeast and Northeast Asia security dialogue among the United States and Asian regional actors.

On September 11-13, Prof. Douglas Lovelace, Dr. Jeffrey McCausland, and Dr. David Lai participated in a workshop, "Bridging Spokes and Spines: U.S. Alliance Strategy and the Geopolitics of Southeast Asia," in Singapore. Dr. McCausland provided a strategic overview of the U.S.-Southeast Asia relations. Dr. Lai discussed U.S. security policies in maritime Southeast Asia. Prof. Lovelace chaired the panel of "Emerging Challenges in Southeast Asia Security Landscape."

On September 11-14, Dr. Andrew Terrill attended the Institute of Global Conflict and Cooperation's 27th Workshop on Arms Control and Security in the Middle East. At this conference, he gave a presentation entitled, "Regional Politics and Dangers after the U.S. Military Withdrawal from Iraq."

The views expressed in this newsletter are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. This newsletter is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited.

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