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China Landpower Studies Center | May 8, 2025

Ecuador’s Incoming Government Faces Difficult Choices Regarding China

With Daniel Noboa returning to the presidency and a new Chinese ambassador on the way, China-Ecuador relations are at an inflection point.From April 22-25, I had the opportunity to travel to Quito, Ecuador, to address an international forum on China
China Landpower Studies Center | May 8, 2025

China’s Coming Diplomatic Blitz in the Americas

The next few months will bring a series of high-profile multilateral engagements between China and Latin American countries, as Beijing seeks to capitalize on discontent with Trump.In the coming three months, China will have a number of opportunities
China Landpower Studies Center | April 29, 2025

Transnational Organized Crime in Mexico and the Government’s Response

The US government threats of tariffs on the Mexican government if it did not do more to control illicit fentanyl flows into the United States have cast new attention on the growing problem of transnational organized crime that has wrought violence
China Landpower Studies Center | April 24, 2025

Waging War without Disruption: China’s People’s Armed Police in a Future...

As one of the three branches of China’s armed forces, the People’s Armed Police (PAP) (人民武装警察) operates alongside the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) (人民解放军) and the militia (民兵) as a key instrument of Chinese Communist Party power. According to the
European Security | April 21, 2025

Russia's the Enemy

The United States has never been directly involved in the war in Ukraine. U.S. troops weren’t sent there to fight for Ukraine against the Russian invaders, and both sides of our political spectrum seemed intent on keeping it that way. Russia remained
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Category: Regional Issues, China Landpower Studies Center, European Security, INDOPACOM (Indo-Pacific Region), South & Latin America

Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn’t Falling
January 22, 2024
Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn’t Falling | R. Evan Ellis Background image from United Press International via Global Americans Article (https://theglobalamericans.org/perspectives-on-ecuador-the-sky-isnt-falling)
Deterring War without Threatening War: Rehabilitating the West’s Risk-averse Approach to Deterrence
January 19, 2024
Deterring War without Threatening War: Rehabilitating the West’s Risk-averse Approach to Deterrence - Military Strategy Magazine Antulio J. Echevarria II https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/deterring-war-without-threatening-war-rehabilitating-the-wests-risk-averse-approach-to-deterrence/
Assessing the Outcome of Taiwan's Presidential Election | 2024 Elections to Watch
January 18, 2024
On January 13 Taiwanese voters headed to the polls, where they elected William Lai to serve as president. Carnegie Asia Program non-resident scholar Sheena Greitens breaks down the results of the election and the various issues at play.
Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait
January 5, 2024
The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the monograph provides US military and policy practitioners new insights into ways to deter the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan without relying exclusively on the threat of great-power war. Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris Keywords Taiwan, China, deterrence, cross-strait relations, Indo-Pacific, East Asia, US foreign policy, international security Disciplines Defense and Security Studies https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/964
China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua
December 21, 2023
China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua – R. Evan Ellis in The Diplomat https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/chinas-growing-strategic-position-in-nicaragua/
Is the Baltic Sea a NATO Lake? 
December 20, 2023
Is the Baltic Sea a NATO Lake? John R. Deni
Alarm Grows Over Weakened Militaries and Empty Arsenals in Europe
December 12, 2023
Budget cuts and an eroded weapons industry have hollowed out armed services; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals risks “People may say the Russians have taken it on the chin, and we don’t need to worry. That’s a valid point, but it ignores residual Russian strength,” said John Deni, a professor at the U.S. Army War College and an expert on European militaries. “If the Russians present us with a mass problem in Europe, the challenge is, can technology and advanced capabilities do it? And there we see some challenges.” Article quote and background image from: https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/alarm-nato-weak-military-empty-arsenals-europe-a72b23f4
The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now
December 8, 2023
The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now - Evan Ellis - The Dispatch Background image from article: https://thedispatch.com/article/the-monroe-doctrine-then-and-now/
Would Venezuela Really Invade Essequibo?
December 4, 2023
By R. Evan Ellis In the context of unfolding global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the dangers of an increasingly aggressive yet economically fragile People’s Republic of China (PRC), Venezuela’s provocative referendum on its claim to two thirds of the territory of neighboring Guyana has received understandably little attention in Washington, D.C. Original background image from article: https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/would-venezuela-really-invade-essequibo/
How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
December 4, 2023
How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit by John R. Deni Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is just months away, and allies are eagerly preparing the agenda. This time around, several member countries are keen to avoid the kind of divisive discussions over Ukraine’s path to membership that publicly played out at last year’s summit in Vilnius — and none more so than hosting nation the United States. Background image from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_%E2%80%93_NATO_Commission_chaired_by_Petro_Poroshenko_(2017-07-10)_48.jpg