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NATO’s Defense Demands Eastern Front Improvements
NATO’s Defense Demands Eastern Front Improvements
July 20, 2023 - John R. Deni The recent summit largely avoided urgent questions about the mismatch between available forces and the Russian threat. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s rather impolitic reaction to the news that his...

NATO Vilnius Summit could have been historic. Instead, it mostly kicked the can down the road.
NATO Vilnius Summit could have been historic. Instead, it mostly kicked the can down the road. 
John R. Deni
July 14, 2023 - John R. Deni argues that at the NATO Summit, “there was little significant movement on several key issues, leaving much on the table for the alliance’s 75th birthday summit next year in Washington, DC.” With the Vilnius...

We don’t really know which NATO allies are pulling their weight.
We don’t really know which NATO allies are pulling their weight.
John R. Deni

The Defense Investment Pledge agreed to by NATO allies in 2014 is reaching its decade-long finish line. The Alliance’s own data indicate that not all allies will cross that line, as many still spend less than the equivalent of 2 percent of their gross domestic products on defense and several still devote less than 20 percent of their defense budgets to acquisition and related research and development. Nonetheless, some allies like the United States are advocating to increase the 2 percent target. This is sure to run into resistance. How can the United States and like-minded allies successfully negotiate higher targets? They might start by agreeing to portray NATO burden- and risk-sharing more accurately. Although some argue that inputs like defense spending tell us a lot about outputs like contributions to Alliance operations, recently available data indicate this is not necessarily the case: New statistical analysis shows that whether or not a country has met the 2 percent spending target doesn’t tell us whether or not they’re contributing equally to the Alliance’s mission. If burden- and risk-sharing could be portrayed more accurately, those opposed to increasing the input targets might be more willing to reconsider. Even if they do not, improving how NATO depicts burden- and risk-sharing would benefit lawmakers, analysts, academics, and the public. Recommendations on how to achieve this follow the statistical analysis.

Continue reading the article https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/natos-next-burden-sharing-agreement/
July 10, 2023 - Here’s how to fix that. John R. Deni  The Defense Investment Pledge agreed to by NATO allies in 2014 is reaching its decade-long finish line. The Alliance’s own data indicate that not all allies will cross that line, as many...

Debate continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join NATO
Debate continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join NATO
Podcast appearance.
John R. Deni

As leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, meet at the annual summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, the conversation continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join the alliance and if so, when.

Here & Now‘s Celeste Headlee speaks with John Deni, research professor at the U.S. Army War College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
July 10, 2023 - Podcast appearance. John R. Deni As leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, meet at the annual summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, the conversation continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join the alliance...

Security Challenges in the Caribbean: Threats, Migration, and International Cooperation
Security Challenges in the Caribbean: Threats, Migration, and International Cooperation, R. Evan Ellis, SSI Worldwide
R. Evan Ellis

The Caribbean faces growing security challenges, ranging from geopolitical tensions to armed violence and the gang epidemic, exacerbated by drug trafficking and competition for drug routes. The region has also been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, mass migration, and money laundering. Caribbean countries require integrated solutions to address these issues, including strengthening institutions, combating crime and corruption, and addressing underlying causes such as inequality and drug demand. International cooperation, particularly with the United States (USA), plays a crucial role in facing these challenges and restoring stability in the Caribbean region.

Keywords: Caribbean, Security Challenges, Geopolitical Tensions, Armed Violence, Gangs, COVID-19, Migration, Money Laundering, Integrated Solutions, Institutional Strengthening, Crime Prevention, Corruption, Inequality, Drug Demand, International Cooperation, United States, Stability.

Continue reading the article

Background image from the related CEEP article.
July 6, 2023 - R. Evan Ellis The Caribbean faces growing security challenges, ranging from geopolitical tensions to armed violence and the gang epidemic, exacerbated by drug trafficking and competition for drug routes. The region has also...

Brazil and the Illiberal Anti-U.S. Alliance
Brazil and the Illiberal Anti-U.S. Alliance
Jun 20, 2023 | China, R. Evan Ellis, South & Latin America, SSI Worldwide
June 20, 2023 - R. Evan EllisDuring World War II, Brazil contributed to the security of allied trans-Atlantic shipping routes and sent a division-sized expeditionary force to Italy to help liberate Europe from Hitler and Mussolini’s...

The Advance of China and Authoritarian Populism in Honduras
The Advance of China and Authoritarian Populism in Honduras
R. Evan Ellis

In Latin America, it is strategically important that the United States distinguish between principled left-oriented democratic regimes versus those which seek to manage the alarm of Washington and Western investors as they pursue a fundamentally anti-democratic, anti-market, anti-U.S. course. It is time for Washington to recognize that the Honduran regime of Xiomara Castro, Mel Zelaya, and their Libre movement, are on the latter path. The Castro government has also opened the door to greater Chinese involvement in the Central American country.

https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/06/the-advance-of-china-and-authoritarian-populism-in-honduras/
June 9, 2023 - R. Evan EllisIn Latin America, it is strategically important that the United States distinguish between principled left-oriented democratic regimes versus those which seek to manage the alarm of Washington and Western...

The Trouble with China’s Global Civilization Initiative (on The Diplomat)
The Trouble with China’s Global Civilization Initiative (on The Diplomat)
The Trouble With China’s Global Civilization Initiative

R. Evan Ellis

History is marked by the recurring tragedy of publics rallying around leaders with attractive-sounding rhetoric, from new constitutions to government-led development and social justice, to prosperity through privatization. Whether on the right or the left, the most consistent outcome is to empower and benefit the elites selling the concept.

China’s new Global Civilization Initiative (GCI), announced by Xi Jinping in his March 15 keynote speech to the Chinese Communist Party High-Level Dialogue with World Political Parties, fits neatly into the global tradition of leaders selling attractive-sounding concepts whose practical implications ultimately benefit them.

Continue reading the article: https://thediplomat.com/2023/06/the-trouble-with-chinas-global-civilization-initiative/
June 1, 2023 - R. Evan EllisHistory is marked by the recurring tragedy of publics rallying around leaders with attractive-sounding rhetoric, from new constitutions to government-led development and social justice, to prosperity through...

Panama’s Popular Discontent Is Still Simmering
Panama’s Popular Discontent Is Still Simmering
R. Evan Ellis

With roughly a year to go before Panama’s next general election scheduled for May 2024, Panamanians are broadly frustrated with the country’s current conditions. During a weeklong visit last month, government officials, academics and others I spoke with expressed concerns over insecurity, the economy, corruption and the stalled completion of popular infrastructure projects. Panamanians generally believe that their country is headed in the wrong direction and are skeptical of the major political parties’ a
bility to deliver a positive change.

Continue reading the article: https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/cortizo-panama-economy-politics-corruption-elections-mining//

(AP photo by Ana Renteria)
May 27, 2023 - R. Evan EllisWith roughly a year to go before Panama’s next general election scheduled for May 2024, Panamanians are broadly frustrated with the country’s current conditions. During a weeklong visit last month, government...