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PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights
Over the past twenty years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has expanded its political, institutional, economic, and other forms of engagement with all regions of the world. Not surprisingly, because engagement in Latin America and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is formulated by the same Chinese Communist Party and PRC-based state-owned enterprises (SOE), it is broadly comparable across regions. 1 Differences in PRC engagements between regions generally reflect differences between government types, particular business opportunities, strategic geography, historical relationships, and Chinese familiarity with the target country, among others. A comparative examination of PRC engagement across regions offers insights by helping to identify common patterns and differences, focusing on the reasons why each occurs. 2  There is a limited but growing volume of work in English on PRC engagement with Central and Eastern Europe. Important works include the Carnegie Foundation report “China’s Influence in Southeastern, Central and Eastern Europe.” 3 Other works include works by think tanks such as China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe 4 and the Washington, DC based Center for European Policy Analysis. 5 Read Now
Feb. 8, 2024 - PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights R. Evan Ellis Over the past twenty years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has expanded its political, institutional, economic,...
Argentina's Milei Returns Idea of Limited Gov't to Global Stage In Latin America
The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help. —Ronald Reagan - Aug. 12, 1986 Most Argentines did not elect eclectic libertarian Javier Milei in November 2023 because they understood his economic philosophy. Rather, they were exasperated by the economic disaster of the leftist Peronist government of Alberto Fernandez, with inflation racing toward 140%, making buying basic goods a daily struggle, plus an impending debt default, evidence of official corruption, and increasing public insecurity. Yet Argentines were also skeptical of the traditional right. Its prior businessman President, Mauricio Macri (2015 to 2019), facing a similarly impossible set of economic challenges and political obstacles, also left the government in financial crisis and economic freefall. https://www.newsmax.com/evanellis/capitalist-libertarianism-milei/2024/02/05/id/1152304/
Feb. 6, 2024 - The nine most terrifying words in the English language are:I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help.— Ronald Reagan - Aug. 12, 1986Most Argentines did not elect eclectic libertarian Javier Milei in November 2023 because...
Strategic Implications of the Deterioration of the Rules-Based International Order
The multiple crises currently playing out in Ukraine, the Middle East, the Taiwan straits, and even Guyana’s Essequibo region, reflect a deterioration of the rules-based international order that has served as the foundation for economic growth, technological progress, and the limitation of interstate conflict since the end of the Second World War. The current deterioration is a product of the expansion of PRC economic and other power as the country pursues its interests, complimented by the enabling effect of that pursuit on a range of illiberal states, with distinct agendas, but united by a common interest in limiting the constraints of that order as they pursue their own interests. Over the long run, the deterioration of the rules-based order undermines democracy and economic progress and facilitates transnational crime and domestic conflict. It may also expand the frequency of inter-state conflict, even in Latin America, in a system in which militarily “stronger” authoritarian regimes increasingly lack constraint in taking what they want from their weaker neighbors. Governments in the region may rediscover the relevance of their militaries in defending the nation against external, as well as environmental, criminal, and internal challenges. Keywords: People’s Republic of China, Rules-Based World Order, Illiberal Governments. https://ceeep.mil.pe/2024/02/01/implicaciones-estrategicas-del-deterioro-del-orden-internacional-basado-en-normas/?lang=en
Feb. 2, 2024 - The multiple crises currently playing out in Ukraine, the Middle East, the Taiwan straits, and even Guyana’s Essequibo region, reflect a deterioration of the rules-based international order that has served as the foundation...
Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn’t Falling
The takeover of Ecuadorian TV station TC in the middle of a widely watched news broadcast, Ecuadoran President Daniel Noboa’s declaration of a state of internal armed conflict, and his deployment of the military as part of the response dominated international news and captured the attention of Washington policymakers last week. Ecuador’s homicide rate has increased eightfold over the past eight years, including almost doubling last year to over 8,000 murders, giving the country a murder rate of 46.5 per 100,000, one of the highest in the region. The number of murders in prisons has similarly almost doubled to over 400 last year. Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn't Falling - Global Americans (theglobalamericans.org) Background image from United Press International via Global Americans Article (https://theglobalamericans.org/perspectives-on-ecuador-the-sky-isnt-falling)
Jan. 22, 2024 - The takeover of Ecuadorian TV station TC in the middle of a widely watched news broadcast, Ecuadoran President Daniel Noboa’s declaration of a state of internal armed conflict, and his deployment of the military as part of...
Deterring War without Threatening War: Rehabilitating the West’s Risk-averse Approach to Deterrence
Antulio J. Echevarria II - US Army War College Shortly after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, defense scholars began asking why the West’s approach to deterrence had failed. Some critics claimed the West never had an official deterrence policy regarding Ukraine, or at least not a consistent one; others maintained the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) took military force “off the table” too soon, relying too much on the coercive power of sanctions.[i] In truth, the West had both a deterrence policy and a supporting deterrence strategy vis-à-vis Ukraine. US President Joseph Biden and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reinforced the policy and the strategy by repeatedly warning Russia’s President Vladimir Putin not to attack Ukraine. However, the West’s approach was too risk-averse to succeed against a major power armed with military capabilities comparable to NATO’s own. It attempted to deter war without threatening war, which in turn rendered it vulnerable to Russian deterrence. By attempting to minimize the risk of a major war, the West made the right call, even though it resulted in the failure of its own deterrence measures. The “value of the political object,” to borrow Clausewitz’s expression, did not warrant risking a potentially ruinous war.[ii] The question now is whether it is possible to rehabilitate the West’s approach to deterrence without requiring NATO to act as irresponsibly with military force as did Putin’s Russia. https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/deterring-war-without-threatening-war-rehabilitating-the-wests-risk-averse-approach-to-deterrence/
Jan. 19, 2024 - Shortly after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, defense scholars began asking why the West’s approach to deterrence had failed. Some critics claimed the West never had an official deterrence policy...
China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua
China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua – R. Evan Ellis in The Diplomat https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/chinas-growing-strategic-position-in-nicaragua/ Background images from Vecteezy (China: https://www.vecteezy.com/video/1618488-china-flag) and FreePik (Nicaragua: https://www.freepik.com/free-photo/waving-flag-nicaragua_10419403.htm)
Dec. 21, 2023 - R. Evan Ellis | The October 2023 announcement of multiple major infrastructure projects to be performed by Chinese companies in Nicaragua highlights China’s deepening strategic position in that country, with significant...
Is the Baltic Sea a NATO Lake? 
Is the Baltic Sea a NATO Lake? John R. Deni This article is part of the Baltic Sea Region Security Initiative developed by the Carnegie Endowment’s Europe Program. With the addition of Finland and soon Sweden into the NATO fold, nearly all of the Baltic Sea littoral states will be alliance members. This has prompted some observers to label the Baltic Sea a kind of “NATO lake.” This is unfortunate framing that implies the Baltic is NATO’s alone, that the Western alliance has little to worry about from a security perspective, or that the littoral states can lean back and rest in the warm embrace of Article 5 and the United States’ commitment to their security. This, of course, does not reflect reality, underlined recently by suspicious damage to the Baltic Connector gas pipeline and telecom links. The fact remains that, today, the Baltic littoral states face a number of significant threats that membership in NATO alone will not ameliorate. Instead, the members of the alliance on the Baltic Sea—Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Germany, and Denmark, as well as aspirant Sweden—and the United States confront a dynamic regional security picture that will require further refinement of capabilities and increased capacity as well as more considered efforts in collective cooperation through both NATO and the European Union.
Dec. 20, 2023 - John R. Deni | This article is part of the Baltic Sea Region Security Initiative developed by the Carnegie Endowment’s Europe Program. | With the addition of Finland and soon Sweden into the NATO fold, nearly all of the...
Alarm Grows Over Weakened Militaries and Empty Arsenals in Europe
Budget cuts and an eroded weapons industry have hollowed out armed services; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals risks “People may say the Russians have taken it on the chin, and we don’t need to worry. That’s a valid point, but it ignores residual Russian strength,” said John Deni, a professor at the U.S. Army War College and an expert on European militaries. “If the Russians present us with a mass problem in Europe, the challenge is, can technology and advanced capabilities do it? And there we see some challenges.” Article quote and background image from: https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/alarm-nato-weak-military-empty-arsenals-europe-a72b23f4
Dec. 12, 2023 - Budget cuts and an eroded weapons industry have hollowed out armed services; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals risks John R. Deni, as quoted in a recent article in the Wall Street Journal: “People may say the Russians have...
The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now
The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now - Evan Ellis - The Dispatch In November 2013, then-Secretary of State John Kerry declared, to thunderous applause, that “the era of the Monroe Doctrine is over.” Flash forward to 2019 and John Bolton, the national security adviser at the time, proclaimed that the Monroe Doctrine was alive and well. Within six years, high-level administration officials had shown the range of views toward the 200-year-old proclamation and U.S. policy in Latin America more broadly: While the left tends to treat the Monroe Doctrine as a symbol of the imposition of U.S. hegemony, the right regards it as a defense of U.S. strategic interests in the hemisphere. Despite those divergent views, the Monroe Doctrine—first proclaimed on this day in 1823 by President James Monroe—deserves renewed attention. Revisiting it should lead us to ask anew how to appropriately engage with our neighbors in Latin America, a task made all the more imperative today by the troubling and often unnoticed activities of China, Russia, and Iran in the hemisphere we share. Background image from article: https://thedispatch.com/article/the-monroe-doctrine-then-and-now/
Dec. 8, 2023 - R. Evan Ellis | In November 2013, then-Secretary of State John Kerry declared, to thunderous applause, that “the era of the Monroe Doctrine is over.” Flash forward to 2019 and John Bolton, the national security adviser at the...
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