The US government threats of tariffs on the Mexican government if it did not do more to control illicit fentanyl flows into the United States have cast new attention on the growing problem of transnational organized crime that has wrought violence and corruption at all levels in Mexico. This work, based on the authors research in interviews with senior Mexican security officials in Mexico City in March 2025, examines the evolution of transnational organized crime in the country, and the Mexican government’s response, with the support of the United States and other partners.
The principal drivers of transnational organized crime dynamics in Mexico are flows of cocaine through the country, largely destined for European and Asian markets, as well as the production of fentanyl there from Chinese and other precursors, mostly oriented toward export to the United States. In addition, other illicit activities including petroleum theft (huachicol), smuggling and exploitation of migrants transiting the country, extortion and kidnapping, illegal mining and money laundering, have also fueled Mexico’s evolving illicit economy.
With respect to murders and other violence in Mexico, arms, including long arms imported from the United States, arms obtained on the black market from Central American and other global wars, drones and other military products principally from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), as well as a large, well-developed illicit domestic industry for military vehicles and supplies all contribute to the lethality of multiple ongoing conflict within the country.
Background image of fentanyl pills from Mexico seized by US Custom and Border Protection officers at the Port of Mariposa in Nogales, Arizona, November 2023 from DVIDS (https://www.dvidshub.net /image/8123153/fentanyl-seizure-port-nogales). Overlaid with a digital map of Mexico from Freepik (https://www.freepik.com /free-vector/mexico-map-vector_333986.htm), edited for color.