Recent Publications - Tag R. Evan Ellis

The Peru F-16 Sale: The Relationship Between Partner Politics, Extra-Hemispheric Adversaries, and US Defense Access
May 19, 2026 — On April 18, 2026, interim Peruvian President José María Balcázar temporarily suspended signing a $3.42 billion agreement for the purchase of 24 new F-16 C and D block 70 fighters, associated equipment, and support. The Peruvian government authorized the official purchase decision in January 2026, following a formal two-year evaluation process ratifying the need for the capabilities and finding the US offer met Peruvian needs better than other contender’s products, including the Swedish JAS-39 Grippen and the French Dassault Rafale F4... MORE

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How Maduro’s capture went down – a military strategist explains what goes into a successful special op
January 5, 2026 — The predawn seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3, 2026 was a complicated affair. It was also, operationally, a resounding success for the U.S. military.Operation Absolute Resolve achieved its objective of seizing Maduro through a mix of extensive planning, intelligence and timing. R. Evan Ellis, a military strategist and former... MORE

Screenshot of the article covering R. Evan Ellis' interview with "The Conversation"

Election, Crisis, and U.S. Opportunity in Bolivia
August 13, 2025 — Bolivia, strategically at the center of South America, faces a critical election that will define its direction in its current profound economic, political and security crisis, its future relationship with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), its engagement with the United States and Western institutions, and its role in the Americas and... MORE

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Ecuador’s Incoming Government Faces Difficult Choices Regarding China
May 8, 2025 — With Daniel Noboa returning to the presidency and a new Chinese ambassador on the way, China-Ecuador relations are at an inflection point.From April 22-25, I had the opportunity to travel to Quito, Ecuador, to address an international forum on China and Latin America, held by the prestigious San Francisco of Quito University and FLACSO Ecuador. My... MORE

Ecuador’s Incoming Government Faces Difficult Choices Regarding China | R. Evan Ellis

China’s Coming Diplomatic Blitz in the Americas
May 8, 2025 — The next few months will bring a series of high-profile multilateral engagements between China and Latin American countries, as Beijing seeks to capitalize on discontent with Trump.In the coming three months, China will have a number of opportunities to advance its multilateral engagement with the Americas, leveraging discontent among many... MORE

China’s Coming Diplomatic Blitz in the Americas | R. Evan Ellis

Transnational Organized Crime in Mexico and the Government’s Response
April 29, 2025 — The US government threats of tariffs on the Mexican government if it did not do more to control illicit fentanyl flows into the United States have cast new attention on the growing problem of transnational organized crime that has wrought violence and corruption at all levels in Mexico. This work, based on the authors research in interviews with... MORE

Transnational Organized Crime in Mexico and the Government’s Response | R. Evan Ellis

Toward a More Effective DoD Contribution to Strategic Competition in the Western Hemisphere
February 21, 2025 — Innovative new thinking is needed on the security challenges the People’s Republic of China poses in Latin America and the Department of Defense’s role in the US response, including (1) enhanced security cooperation that helps key democratic partners succeed and provides the United States leverage and situational awareness, and (2) anticipating how the People’s Republic of China may exploit its commercial and other activities in the region in times of war... MORE

Toward a More Effective DoD Contribution to Strategic Competition in the Western Hemisphere | R. Evan Ellis

Ecuador’s Security Challenges and the Government’s Response
February 11, 2025 — In January 2024, following a series of dramatic public security incidents, including the escape from prison of Adolfo Macias (“Fito”), the leader of the violent Ecuadoran gang Los Choneros, and the takeover of an Ecuadoran Television station during a live broadcast, the newly elected government of Daniel Noboa declared a “state of internal warfare”... MORE

Ecuador’s Security Challenges and the Government’s Response | R. Evan Ellis

Evolution of the Latin American Strategic Environment and the Posture of its Security Forces
January 14, 2025 — The security environment in Latin America and the Caribbean continues to evolve, driven in part by dramatic underlying changes in the broader global dynamics. Latin American security forces, constrained by a combination of resources and administrative and political factors, struggle with varying degrees of effectiveness to adapt. This paper... MORE

Evolution of the Latin American Strategic Environment and the Posture of its Security Forces | R. Evan Ellis

2025: Possibilities for the Year to Come
December 27, 2024 — 2025 is likely to be a transformative year for Latin America and the Caribbean, and its relationships with the United States, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and other actors. Although it is impossible to predict with certainty the complex interaction among interdependent events and factors, it is important to recognize the substantial number... MORE

2025: Possibilities for the Year to Come | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

Ecuador’s Evolving Engagement with the PRC
December 24, 2024 — Under the current Ecuadorian government of Daniel Noboa, major infrastructure, financial, and security cooperation with China has been restrained, but political expediency may change that.In September 2024, Ecuadorian Economy Minister Juan Carlos Vega Malo traveled to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to discuss a range of commercial and... MORE

Ecuador’s Evolving Engagement with the PRC | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

Making the Case for Democratic, Limited Government and Economic Liberty in the Americas
December 17, 2024 — This work is derived from an address given by the author to the InterAmerican Institute for Democracy on December 4, 2024, in Miami, Florida.In discussing the status of political and economic freedom in Latin America, my thoughts go to the consolidation of power of criminal dictatorships in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba, the deterioration of... MORE

Making the Case for Democratic, Limited Government and Economic Liberty in the Americas | R. Evan Ellis