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NEWS | March 22, 2024

Implications for Modern Warfighting Concepts: What the US Army Can Learn from Past Conflicts

Richard D. Butler

These four historic vignettes provide context and lessons learned for the US Army as it returns to peer conflict. Although history does not account for the cyber and space domains, the leaders involved in the highlighted conflicts dealt with the reintroduction of maneuver warfare tied to modern fires from land, sea, and air. Peer-level conflict also compelled governments to work intensely in the information space to steel their societies and to influence allies, partners, and adversaries. Using historical reference material and insights from historians and other experts, this essay will help the US Army and the wider community of interest relearn peer rival conflict to support deterrence and prepare for the next large-scale war.

Defense of the Philippines, 1899–1942

The US Army faced a new, long-term challenge in the Philippines following the seizure of Manila in 1898. Based on Washington’s policy, the US Army and the US Navy coordinated a basic, long-term strategy that induced the Army to pacify the Filipinos and support the fortification of Luzon as an expeditionary staging area for the Navy. Four significant events shaped the region militarily over the next 20 years. The first event was the Russians’ twofold defeat in 1905 at the hands of the Japanese. The second was the 1907 Japanese invasion scare, which heightened the long-term belief that the United States and Japan would go to war in the Pacific. The third was the Navy’s shift from coal- to oil-fired boilers, which eliminated the necessity of maintaining a coaling station in the Philippines. The final event was the post–World War I agreement that gave the Japanese possession of Germany’s mandate islands in the northern, western, and northwestern Pacific (the Marshall Islands, Caroline Islands, Mariana Islands, and Palau Islands). By 1920, the Army’s mission to defend the archipelago was outdated and untenable.1

Politically, the Army was hamstrung by a public that neither desired a large standing American land force nor wanted to fund US-backed Filipino efforts to create an indigenous force in the Philippines. Despite these factors, the Army persisted in creating operational-level plans, insisting on immediate reinforcement. In 1931, Army and Navy wargamers realized immediate reinforcement of the Philippines was infeasible.2 The US Army War College and the US Naval War College—acting as service think tanks and wargamers and contributing as adjuncts of the service planning staffs—clearly understood the dilemma from the standpoint of War Plan Orange and the subsequent Rainbow Plans, which became increasingly important as war approached. As the 1930s wore on, the Joint Board adopted the Navy’s and Army’s informed posture: The US military would defend the Hawaii-Panama-Alaska line.3

The field commanders in the Philippines also recognized the dire situation and planned as best they could to fight a delaying action. From an Army standpoint, these forlorn efforts included routinely using unobtainable mobility figures early in the war and assuming the Navy would fight through in time to relieve the forces holding out on Luzon. General Douglas MacArthur even changed the plans to induce resourcing and support as he sought to build defensive resiliency in the Philippines. This change, however, gained little traction because fortifying the Philippines was not high on the political-military agenda.4

At the end of 40 years of strategy and planning, the Army in the Pacific was in an isolated position due to Washington’s strategic shortsightedness and several other factors. Time was increasingly on Tokyo’s side due to the modernization of its military power and the benefits of being in the winning coalition in World War I. Until December 1941, Washington continued to believe its economic power and available forces in the Pacific were sufficient to deter Japanese military aggression against US possessions. Psychologically, Americans believed Asian militaries were not equal to their Western counterparts. Most importantly, the political, strategic, and operational levels of the civilian-military relationships never identified a suitable solution for this infeasible scenario. Implementing national policy toward the Philippines regarding the transition and status of the Philippines and its military could have made a profound difference in deterrence and early conflict. Culpability also resides with the military departments that should have reconciled the gap between strategy, plans, and resources. These actions would not have staved off World War II, but they would have kept more than 18,000 American soldiers and the Filipino Army fighting on better terms early in the war.5 The isolation of American forces in the Pacific is a hard lesson the US military should never be forced to relearn.

The Korean War, 1950

In early 1950, Washington did not consider the defense of South Korea vital to the United States or its free-world allies.6 Sensing an opportunity, Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin acquiesced to Chinese Chairman Mao Zedong’s request to unify the peninsula by force. During the first few weeks of the conflict, MacArthur, as the theater commander, rapidly sought and obtained political buy-in to defend Korea. President Harry S. Truman immediately authorized the use of US Air Force assets based in Japan, changed the operational control of the US Seventh Fleet to MacArthur’s Far East Command, and began ammunition resupply to the Republic of Korea Army. Politically, Truman and Secretary of State George C. Marshall signaled support requirements to allies and partners and engaged the UN in San Francisco.7

Knowing he needed an operationally oriented mission command on the Korean Peninsula, MacArthur established the Advance Command and Liaison Group in Korea, subsuming the remnants of the American advisory group that was evacuating Seoul.8 MacArthur also intuitively knew the new command would need American ground forces rapidly, so he requested them from Washington. Approval drove the hasty deployment of ill-prepared occupation forces in Japan that consisted of four understrength divisions and a limited number of available organic service-support troops. Senior-leader dialogue also obtained early decisions to employ the Pacific-based marine regimental combat team, and Far East Command worked quickly to introduce and integrate allied troops and headquarters as they became available and could be flowed into Korea.9

The US military emphasized growing a robust mission command structure for the war fight and sustainment. Eighth Army Headquarters was dispatched to the Korean Peninsula, and the Army passed its communication-zone duties to the newly established Japan Logistical Command. The Army also established Pusan Logistical Command to handle the significant sustainment mission required to build and maintain combat power on the peninsula. Japan Logistical Command reported to Far East Command, and Pusan Logistical Command reported to Eighth Army.10 Due to the unanticipated nature of the war and the austere conditions in Korea, the early months of the war focused on the deployment of service-support personnel to set the theater.11

The need for added means to fight became apparent as the North Koreans continued to seize the initiative. This requirement prompted presidential and congressional action to extend enlistments, conduct an expansion call-up of the reserves, and extend the draft. The Army and the US Marine Corps also established worldwide sustainment operations to assemble the required personnel and equipment. Within Far East Command’s area of responsibility, the US military had already authorized limited increases in personnel and equipment readiness for combat, including forced-entry operations, which MacArthur began in mid-1949 with the limited resources at his disposal.12 The United States also diligently worked to reconstitute the Republic of Korea’s decimated infantry divisions, which would later perform admirably for their young nation. American manpower shortages also forced the integration of Korean servicemembers into the American ranks to prepare for the Inch’ŏn landing.13 The Korean Augmentation to the US Army remains important to the alliance today. The Navy also enlisted Japanese merchants and merchantmen to support rear-area logistics and combat-landing operations.14 These examples represent two important coalition contributions to the US-led war effort.

MacArthur always envisioned the need to conduct an amphibious landing to cut the enemy’s lines of communication and seize the initiative from the Korean People’s Army. Given the rapid advance of the enemy and the complete breakdown of the Republic of Korea Army, MacArthur reassessed the feasibility of this plan. Through extensive coordination with the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the United States met its additional Army and Marine Corps division requirements without accepting unnecessary global risk, particularly in Europe. This coordination mitigated operational risk significantly, allowing Far East Command to focus on building up the X Corps in Japan while keeping enough force structure to defend the Pusan perimeter, break out rapidly, and link up with the landing forces in the vicinity of Seoul after the Inch’ŏn landing had broken the will of the enemy.

After the US military had sorted the feasibility and associated risk for the Inch’ŏn landing, the Joint Chiefs of Staff remained concerned about the landing location due to the tides and terrain. MacArthur was resolute about how he chose to apply his means: He assumed the risk knowing that not only was there concern in Washington, but also concerns about the landing site voiced by Rear Admiral James H. Doyle, the Navy commander for the operation, and Lieutenant General Lemuel C. Shepherd Jr., Fleet Marine Forces Pacific commander. The discussion of approaches with the Joint Chiefs of Staff lasted until the morning of the invasion. One of MacArthur’s staff hand-delivered the general’s last communication to the Joint Chiefs of Staff on the day of the landing, showing MacArthur’s commitment to the mission. The Joint Chiefs of Staff simply replied that they approved the plan and had informed the president.15

Although the US military was not fighting against a peer, this case shows how a forward-deployed Joint Force can create dilemmas, extend the conflict in time and space, and create multiple convergence points. Early in the conflict, time was on the enemy’s side. The Korean People’s Army controlled the operational tempo and nearly achieved victory. External friendly forces were not immediately available to counter the initial attacks. Only rapid decisions at the strategic and national policy level created the strategic maneuver, which enabled swift mobilization, the deployment of resources, and authorities to seize the initiative.

Economic Warfare in World War I, 1900–16

In 2012, British economist and historian Nicholas A. Lambert wrote Planning Armageddon: British Economic Warfare and the First World War. The book details the Royal Navy’s efforts to design and implement a blockade campaign for the anticipated war between the United Kingdom and Germany and points out the effort’s efficacy and the challenges it entailed. The British government, navy, and army were never completely aligned with the policy. Additionally, bureaucrats and experts struggled to implement the policy due to the complexity of the global economy and business leaders’ (including British business leaders’) proclivity for making a profit. Implementation challenges included difficulty identifying the goods that should be considered war material and second-destination shipping, and other means to evade the blockade. The United Kingdom also lacked whole-of-government resources for managing and implementing the blockade across the country’s ministries. Its military struggled to meet high-priority requirements for the British Army in Europe and Gallipoli. Other nations also challenged the global application of the blockade by making enforcement decisions to manage their economies and domestic expectations. This scenario was particularly true of the United States, whose burgeoning economy reaped profits from trade with the warring parties.16 Despite repeated efforts between the Admiralty and other elements of the British government to revise and align the protocols for enforcement as well as to seek support from Washington, forcing the Germans to capitulate based solely on economic warfare proved impossible.

The lessons here are quite interesting. The first lesson: economic warfare does contribute to an overall whole-of-nation effort and governments and societies will endure much to win if they believe the fight is worth the hardship. The second lesson: implementing economic measures to the maximum extent practicable requires great forethought, collaboration, international cooperation, and persistence for success. A final lesson: sharing and understanding service perspectives is important. The British Army and Royal Navy had to collaborate so the United Kingdom could set strategy, implement policy, and align resources across the British government.

Prelude to Operation Overlord, 1940–44

As noted in the first vignette, the Rainbow planning efforts identified the infeasibility of the United States’ position in the Pacific. These plans, however, also began to align the political and military ends of the “Germany-first” policy once war came. This notion solidified during the American-British Conversations-1 conference as the central tenet of the Allied military strategy following the Dunkirk evacuation, the Battle of Britain, and the Soviet entry into the war. The Germany-first policy also remained central after the Japanese attacks on American forces in the Pacific. As American planners began to envision the long campaign ahead, they looked deeply into the mobilization effort and integrated operational steps required to defeat Germany. The Victory Program, promulgated by the General Headquarters in Washington, identified the center of gravity as defeating the German Army and seizing German terrain. To achieve this victory, the Army envisioned a campaign to control the sea lines of communication, build up forces in the United Kingdom, reduce Germany’s strategic capability, conduct forced-entry operations in France, and then strike at the heart of Germany. Militarily, the plan was direct and efficient.

Varying interests among the Allies, however, dictated a much less direct route. Throughout the three years of planning that culminated in the Normandy Invasion, Prime Minister Winston Churchill continuously articulated the need to conduct operations in the Mediterranean Basin. British motivations included the desire to maintain lines of communications and resource management with the United Kingdom’s colonial possessions in Northern Africa, the Middle East, and Asia—during the war and following its end. The British were also concerned with communist expansion into Central and Southern Europe and America’s readiness to fight.17

Premier Stalin and Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov pushed aggressively for opening a second front to relieve the pressure on the Soviet armies in the East. Stalin and Molotov went so far as to tell Churchill they might be willing to sue for a separate peace. A strong national desire to seek retribution for the attack on Pearl Harbor also shaped the American stance. This motive led military leaders in the Pacific and Ernest King, Chief of Naval Operations, to push repeatedly for more resources in that hemisphere. Additionally, American senior leaders knew the Army was green and needed experience before invading Fortress Europe.

The result was repeated cooperation and compromise at the policy-strategy interface, informed by the availability of military resources. Given resource scarcity, the only initial viable option for opening a second front was entry into Northern Africa (Operation Torch). The decision to execute the operation, coupled with decisions to divert additional resources to the Pacific War following the Battle of Midway to support preparations for the campaigns in the Solomon and Aleutian Islands and to enter the lend-lease agreement with Russia, ultimately sapped the buildup in the United Kingdom (Operation Bolero) that would be required to execute forced-entry operations into continental Europe.

Ultimately, Operation Torch increased the feasibility of the Normandy Invasion (Operation Overlord) by ensuring American military leaders and troops were battle-tested. Operation Torch provided insight into who should command Operation Overlord and how the Army should arrange its command relationships. Operation Torch also provided valuable lessons for training and sustaining units.18 Perhaps most importantly, the operation kept the alliance solvent, allowed more time for American society to mobilize completely, and created the strategic narrative that the Axis powers were doomed to failure. Within the military, Marshall captured the importance of the weighty strategic decisions being made by politicians when he stated he had learned the importance of politicians doing something in the war every year.19

These same factors played out again in 1943 and 1944. Political necessity continued to drive planning hampered by feasibility limitations. From the time standpoint, political requirements demanded action, even if the action was not ideal. The Allies needed to press the Axis powers on multiple fronts to change the cumulative momentum of the war. The availability of landing craft and seasoned American commanders and servicemembers drove how many major operations could be conducted each year. At the political level, the Army created room for strategic maneuver to accommodate the political needs of major Allied countries to maintain the coalition. This strategy meant keeping the second front in Europe moving through Italy, accelerating operations in the Pacific, and postponing the invasion of France until the summer of 1944.

Synthesizing the Lessons

Applying the lessons outlined above will be difficult. The United States has not been in a peer conflict in many decades. When peer adversaries transition to conflict over perceived vital interests, the war will likely not be short, particularly if the adversaries do not share a common land border. This prolonged warfare will require Army concepts and plans that are durable and expandable. The nature of conflict endures as a test of wills, inducing national pride and actions that may have been considered unnecessary before the start of the conflict. This fervor means quick wins will be less likely if both sides meet deterrence requirements. Nations fight peer conflicts in all domains, and multidomain conflict means the Joint Force must employ all options in all domains by all services. The more vital the interest to both sides, the more likely major campaigns will occur in the land domain. Even with the deterrent potential of the cyber domain, deterrence will require options that involve ground campaigns. Allies and partners matter, especially because the American military fights away games. Coalition interests, capabilities, and ideas have substance. Conflict creates opportunities to change relationships. Thus, Army plans and capabilities must be flexible, adaptive, and mindful of the post-conflict international system.

 

 

Richard D. Butler

Colonel Richard D. Butler, US Army, is the director of the China Landpower Studies Center at the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute.

 

 

ENDNOTES

  1. Brian McAllister Linn, Guardians of Empire: The US Army and the Pacific, 1902–1940 (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1997), 79–114. Return to text.
  2. Maurice Matloff and Edwin M. Snell, Strategic Planning for Coalition Warfare 1941–1942 (Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 1980), 2-3, https://history.army.mil/books/wwii/sp1941-42/chapter1.htm. Return to text.
  3. Henry G. Gole, The Road to Rainbow: Army Planning for Global War, 1934–1940 (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2002), 35–36, 87–89, 99. Return to text.
  4. Louis Morton, “The Decision to Withdraw to Bataan” in Command Decisions (Center for Military History, 2000), 155–58, https://history.army.mil/books/70-7_06.htm. Return to text.
  5. Louis Morton, The Fall of the Philippines (Washington, DC: US Army Center of Military History, 1993), 49. Return to text.
  6. James Schnabel, Policy and Direction the First Year (Washington, DC: US Army Center of Military History), 1992, 50–51. Return to text.
  7. Schnabel, Policy and Direction, 66–70. Return to text.
  8. Schnabel, Policy and Direction, 71–72. Return to text.
  9. Jeffery Grey, The Commonwealth Armies and the Korean War: An Alliance Study (Manchester, UK: Manchester University Press), 1988, 31–46. Return to text.
  10. Richard B. Black, William Arthur Taylor, and William Neilson, An Evaluation of Service Support in the Korean War (Washington, DC: Johns Hopkins University Operations Research Office, 1951), 1–4. Return to text.
  11. William J. Flanagan, Korean War Logistics: The First One Hundred Days (Carlisle, PA: US Army War College, 1985), 1–13. Return to text.
  12. Schnabel, Policy and Direction, 55–60. Return to text.
  13. Paul M. Edwards, The Inchon Landing, Korea, 1950: An Annotated Bibliography (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1995), XXIV. Return to text.
  14. James A. Field Jr., “Into the Perimeter,” in History of United States Naval Operations: Korea (Washington, DC: Naval History and Heritage Command), 1962. Return to text.
  15. Roy E. Appelman, South to the Naktong, North to the Yalu (Washington, DC: US Army Center of Military History), 1992, 492–95. Return to text.
  16. Nicholas A. Lambert, Planning Armageddon: British Economic Warfare and the First World War (Boston: Harvard University Press, 2012). Return to text.
  17. Warren Kimball, Churchill & Roosevelt: The Complete Correspondence (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1987), 109–35. Return to text.
  18. Jane Penrose, D-Day Companion: Leading Historians Explore History’s Greatest Amphibious Assault (Oxford, UK: Osprey Publishing, 2009), 43–46. Return to text.
  19. Mark Stoler, The Politics of the Second Front: American Military Planning and Diplomacy in Coalition Warfare, 1941–1943 (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1977), 58. Return to text.

 

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This episode features the authors of the recently published monograph More Than a Numbers Game: Comparing US and Chinese Landpower in the Pacific Requires Context.

SRAD | Aug. 26, 2025

Loyal Paraguay: The Peña Government’s Strategic Choice to Stay with Taiwan

From August 11-15, 2025, the author was in Asuncion, Paraguay, in an International Republican Institute (IRI) event hosted by that nation’s President Santiago Peña, bringing together government officials, diplomats, businesspersons, and civil

SRAD | Aug. 25, 2025

From the Last Frontier to the Final Frontier: The Polar Regions and Spac...

This article examines the intersection of Arctic geopolitics and space security amid intensifying U.S., Russian, and Chinese competition. Melting ice has opened access to resources and new sea routes, elevating the Arctic’s strategic value while

SRAD | Aug. 15, 2025

The Economic Argument for Keeping US Forces in Europe

NATO’s Hague summit earlier this summer has generally been viewed as a qualified success, despite — or perhaps because of — its unusually short and focused agenda. The new 5 percent defense spending commitment deserves most of the credit for this

SRAD | Aug. 13, 2025

A New World Cop on the Beat? China’s Internal Security Outreach Under th...

Global outreach by China’s internal security agencies is expanding. This nonmilitary security diplomacy plays a crucial yet overlooked role in Chinese foreign security policy. Watch Now

SRAD | Aug. 13, 2025

Election, Crisis, and U.S. Opportunity in Bolivia

Bolivia, strategically at the center of South America, faces a critical election that will define its direction in its current profound economic, political and security crisis, its future relationship with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), its

SRAD | Aug. 6, 2025

Understanding, Deterring, and Preparing for a Great-Power War in the Twe...

This integrated research project highlights gaps in the US Army’s understanding of, and preparations for, a great-power war in the twenty-first century. The project employs historical analysis to enhance Army leaders’ understanding of great-power

SRAD | July 22, 2025

More Than a Numbers Game: Comparing US and Chinese Landpower in the Paci...

As the US Army organizes, trains, and equips for an unforeseen future, service decisions should create or amplify relative operational advantages over the US military’s rising foe—the People’s Liberation Army. Discerning critical differences between

SRAD | July 22, 2025

Weaponizing Risk: Recalibrating Western Deterrence

Can NATO increase the risks and costs of war for an adversary without unduly raising the alliance’s own? Can the alliance strengthen the credibility of NATO’s extended deterrence through a proxy strategy of “waging war without going to war”? 

SRAD | July 15, 2025

Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Technologies in...

Explore artificial intelligence’s potential for military planning! This study examines how artificial intelligence and machine learning can enhance the US Army’s common operational picture and course of action development. Learn how advanced

SRAD | July 9, 2025

Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

The United States faces a complex and ever-changing global environment. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment is designed to guide the collective defense community to research and write about critical national security challenges


SRAD | June 18, 2025

Parameters | Summer 2025

Welcome to the Summer 2025 issue of Parameters. This issue consists of an In Focus special commentary, three forums (Indo-Pacific Challenges, Russia-Ukraine Issues, and Historical Studies).

SRAD | June 3, 2025

Assessing the PLA’s Strengths and Weaknesses for Achieving the PRC’s Goals

This chapter examines the perceived strengths and weaknesses of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) within the context of its modernization process and argues that the persistence of shortcomings may undercut the confidence senior leaders would prefer

SRAD | May 20, 2025

China Landpower Studies Center Newsletter II

In our second newsletter, we will share the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC) team’s latest analysis and insights on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

SRAD | May 8, 2025

Ecuador’s Incoming Government Faces Difficult Choices Regarding China

With Daniel Noboa returning to the presidency and a new Chinese ambassador on the way, China-Ecuador relations are at an inflection point.From April 22-25, I had the opportunity to travel to Quito, Ecuador, to address an international forum on China

SRAD | May 8, 2025

China’s Coming Diplomatic Blitz in the Americas

The next few months will bring a series of high-profile multilateral engagements between China and Latin American countries, as Beijing seeks to capitalize on discontent with Trump.In the coming three months, China will have a number of opportunities

SRAD | April 29, 2025

Transnational Organized Crime in Mexico and the Government’s Response

The US government threats of tariffs on the Mexican government if it did not do more to control illicit fentanyl flows into the United States have cast new attention on the growing problem of transnational organized crime that has wrought violence

SRAD | April 24, 2025

Waging War without Disruption: China’s People’s Armed Police in a Future...

As one of the three branches of China’s armed forces, the People’s Armed Police (PAP) (人民武装警察) operates alongside the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) (人民解放军) and the militia (民兵) as a key instrument of Chinese Communist Party power. According to the

SRAD | April 22, 2025

Thompson’s Rifle Battalion: The Original Unit of the Army of the United ...

Why is 1775 depicted on the official flag of the US Army? Why did Congress form the Pennsylvania Rifle Battalion as the first non-militia unit in the army of the United Colonies? Who was the battalion’s commander, William Thompson? What happened to

SRAD | April 21, 2025

Russia's the Enemy

The United States has never been directly involved in the war in Ukraine. U.S. troops weren’t sent there to fight for Ukraine against the Russian invaders, and both sides of our political spectrum seemed intent on keeping it that way. Russia remained

SRAD | April 21, 2025

Russia, Ukraine, and Collective Defence

The ability to adapt to a constantly evolving security environment has been critical to the success of NATO, yet this is being tested anew as the Alliance faces a second term of Donald Trump in the White House and re-embraces collective defence in

SRAD | April 21, 2025

Does NATO Still Matter?

The alliance has created economic growth, peace and stability. America’s relationship with Europe is undergoing a potentially profound reexamination. Whether and how the transatlantic bond — especially America’s commitment to NATO — will endure has

SRAD | April 15, 2025

Don’t waste this crisis, Europe: consolidate your defense industry

Turn your excess national defense champions into continental ones.Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and questions about the American commitment to NATO have cast a spotlight on European efforts to safeguard security on the continent. But today, the

SRAD | April 15, 2025

A Drawdown of US Forces in Europe Is All but Certain

Here’s how the Pentagon can rebalance its approach to the continent without sacrificing US interests.The Trump administration has only just begun to fill its ranks with the political appointees who will flesh out the future of US defense policy. One

SRAD | April 14, 2025

LTG Matthew McFarlane: Commanding General of America's First Corps

Today we are talking with Lieutenant General Matthew McFarlane, the commanding general of America's I Corps, headquartered at Joint Base Lewis-McChord. Having served with distinction at all levels of the Army and Joint Force, he now leads the Army's

SRAD | April 11, 2025

How Chinese Leaders Conceptualize Protracted War

You're listening to CLSC Dialogues, a China Landpower Studies Center production. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the guests and are not necessarily those of the Department of the Army, the U.S. Army War College, or any

SRAD | March 24, 2025

Amid Trump Tariffs, Where Do China-Mexico Ties Stand?

Mexico’s government is attempting to downplay its relationship with China to avoid Trump’s ire, but ties continue beneath the surface. In the beginning of March 2025, I traveled to Mexico to speak with a range of officials and experts about

SRAD | March 20, 2025

Parameters | Spring 2025

Welcome to the Spring 2025 issue of Parameters. This issue consists of an In Focus special commentary, three forums (Russia, Ukraine, and NATO; Strategic Competition and Managing National Security; and Joint Sustainment Strategies), the regular

SRAD | March 18, 2025

North Korea in Ukraine: Analyzing Authoritarian Cooperation

The deployment of North Korean forces to Ukraine marks a critical inflection point in global security dynamics, challenging long-held assumptions about the limits of cooperation between authoritarian states. This development, unprecedented in its

SRAD | Feb. 21, 2025

Toward a More Effective DoD Contribution to Strategic Competition in the...

Innovative new thinking is needed on the security challenges the People’s Republic of China poses in Latin America and the Department of Defense’s role in the US response, including (1) enhanced security cooperation that helps key democratic partners

SRAD | Feb. 21, 2025

The Impact of China on US Interests in Latin America

President Trump’s statements regarding the influence of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) over the Panama Canal, and the focus on the issue as part of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s February 2025 trip to Central America and the Caribbean  have

SRAD | Feb. 20, 2025

Freezing Point: PLA Army Expeditionary Units Lack Readiness for Extreme ...

In 2024, the US Department of Defense promulgated the latest edition of its Arctic Strategy, highlighting the need to enhance domain awareness and operational readiness to safeguard US and allied interests in the Arctic region. The Arctic possesses

SRAD | Feb. 11, 2025

Ecuador’s Security Challenges and the Government’s Response

In January 2024, following a series of dramatic public security incidents, including the escape from prison of Adolfo Macias (“Fito”), the leader of the violent Ecuadoran gang Los Choneros, and the takeover of an Ecuadoran Television station during a

SRAD | Jan. 31, 2025

China Landpower Studies Center Newsletter I

With the start of the New Year, the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC) would like to share with you the team’s latest analysis and insights on the People's Liberation Army (PLA).If you find value in this newsletter, please share it with colleagues

SRAD | Jan. 31, 2025

2024 Carlisle Conference on the PLA

The China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC) held the Carlisle Conference on the PLA at the US Army War College’s (USAWC) Army Heritage and Education Center on 16 and 17 October 2024. This year’s conference, a keystone annual event held by the USAWC

SRAD | Jan. 14, 2025

Evolution of the Latin American Strategic Environment and the Posture of...

The security environment in Latin America and the Caribbean continues to evolve, driven in part by dramatic underlying changes in the broader global dynamics. Latin American security forces, constrained by a combination of resources and

SRAD | Jan. 14, 2025

Rethinking Denial: The People’s Liberation Army’s Laser Systems and the ...

In a future Taiwan contingency, the United States and its allies and partners are poised to leverage large-scale autonomous unmanned aircraft system (UAS) operations to counter China’s anti-access/area denial strategy. This approach aims to mitigate

SRAD | Jan. 8, 2025

Assessing the Effectiveness of US Army Campaigning in the Indo-Pacific

Applying the military instrument of power is essential to deterrence and assurance in the Indo-Pacific. This essay explores the underappreciated application of Landpower in this critical region and assesses the effects of a few activities that assure

SRAD | Jan. 6, 2025

“Potential Forms of Russian Support for China in a Protracted War”

Brian Carlson and David Stone – “Potential Forms of Russian Support for China in a Protracted War” In this episode of CLSC Dialogues, Brian Carlson interviews David Stone, a Russia expert from the U.S. Naval War College, about potential forms of

SRAD | Jan. 2, 2025

8 Simmering Threats You Shouldn’t Ignore in 2025: A Plausibly Deniable R...

The sabotage of undersea communications cables in the Baltic Sea by the cargo ship Yi Peng 3 is only the latest in a series of asymmetric attacks against Western interests and infrastructure that appear to be connected in one way or another to

SRAD | Dec. 27, 2024

2025: Possibilities for the Year to Come

2025 is likely to be a transformative year for Latin America and the Caribbean, and its relationships with the United States, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and other actors. Although it is impossible to predict with certainty the complex

SRAD | Dec. 24, 2024

Ecuador’s Evolving Engagement with the PRC

Under the current Ecuadorian government of Daniel Noboa, major infrastructure, financial, and security cooperation with China has been restrained, but political expediency may change that.In September 2024, Ecuadorian Economy Minister Juan Carlos

SRAD | Dec. 19, 2024

It’s (Still) More Expensive to Rotate Military Forces Overseas than Base...

In mid-2020, then-President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to withdraw roughly one-third of US forces from Germany, reportedly because of policy differences with Berlin. Given how long it would take to implement such a significant change in

SRAD | Dec. 18, 2024

Security Implications for the United States from Iranian and Hezbollah A...

This presentation will examine engagement with Latin America by Iran, its government agents, and surrogate groups such as Hezbollah, including terrorist finance, terrorism, and other activities and their evolution in recent years. It will address the

SRAD | Dec. 17, 2024

Making the Case for Democratic, Limited Government and Economic Liberty ...

This work is derived from an address given by the author to the InterAmerican Institute for Democracy on December 4, 2024, in Miami, Florida.In discussing the status of political and economic freedom in Latin America, my thoughts go to the

SRAD | Dec. 10, 2024

Will Assad’s Defeat be Putin’s Waterloo?

The narrative of Russia’s ascendancy in 2024 is beginning to look like more fiction than fact. The Assad regime in Syria has become a casualty of Moscow’s increasingly desperate efforts in Ukraine, and its collapse is a strategic and operational blow

SRAD | Dec. 5, 2024

China’s Next Step in Modernizing the People’s Liberation Army: A New Res...

The Chinese Communist Party’s massive active-duty army—the largest in the world—understates the manpower available to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) during a future protracted war. Despite the hundreds of thousands of combat troops garrisoned

SRAD | Dec. 5, 2024

Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine

The US strategy in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine appeared to undermine Russian efforts to justify the war. While studies of international crises typically focus on the goals of deterrence and escalation management, recent events in Ukraine

SRAD | Nov. 26, 2024

China’s Summit Diplomacy: Insights From BRICS, APEC and the G20

From late October through mid-November, China’s President Xi Jinping held high-profile engagements in three very different major international forums: the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia; the APEC Leadership Forum in Lima, Peru; and the G-20 summit in

SRAD | Nov. 26, 2024

Challenges and Opportunities for U.S.-Mexico Security Cooperation

While policy clashes between the elected governments of Mexico and the United States in the coming years appear likely, the degree to which those tensions degrade the commercial relationship and security cooperation that is vital to both will depend

SRAD | Nov. 21, 2024

Parameters | Winter 2024–25

Welcome to the Winter 2024–25 issue of Parameters. This issue consists of an In Focus special commentary, three forums (Indo-Pacific, Security Cooperation, and Historical Studies), and the regular Civil-Military Relations Corner installment.

SRAD | Nov. 14, 2024

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-...

The 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan solidified an anti-liberal «counter-order,» challenging the rules-based international system. With its expansion to 23 members, the bloc, financially led by China, seeks to evade global restrictions and advance its

SRAD | Nov. 12, 2024

Security Challenges in the Dutch Caribbean

This work examines security challenges facing the Dutch Caribbean, including narcotrafficking and other forms of organized crime, money laundering, Venezuelan and other refugee flows, and the little-understood activities of criminal groups operating

SRAD | Nov. 7, 2024

Strategic Implication of the Chinese-Operated Port of Chancay

This article examines the Port of Chancay from a strategic perspective, with a focus on how COSCO (China Ocean Shipping Company) achieved unprecedented control over the operation of the new Peruvian megaport, the impact that the port is likely to

SRAD | Nov. 7, 2024

“China, the Illiberal Counter-Order, and the Role of Values in the Strat...

Dr. R. Evan Ellis discusses his recent article written for the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs titled, “China, the Illiberal Counter-Order, and the Role of Values in the Strategic Response.”  This illuminating discussion covers what China is doing

SRAD | Nov. 6, 2024

Venezuela: The Path Forward

Thanks to the courageous work of the Venezuelan opposition, including obtaining physical and photographic evidence of over 80% of the individual “acts” from Venezuela’s more than 30,000 polling places, the world generally knows that Edmundo Gonzalez

SRAD | Oct. 28, 2024

Paraguay’s Security Challenges and the Government Response

This article analyzes the security challenges in Paraguay and the government response under the administration of Santiago Peña. It argues that Paraguay, despite its strategic location and regional relevance, faces serious security problems due to

SRAD | Oct. 18, 2024

Chile’s Expanding Defense Relationship with China

From September 9-14, 2024, Chilean Defense Minister Maya Fernandez Allende, granddaughter of Chile’s first socialist president Salvador Allende, traveled to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to attend the 11th annual Xiangshan Defense Forum in

SRAD | Oct. 17, 2024

China in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A New Dynamic in Critical...

Critical minerals will continue to grow in importance across the globe in the coming decades as technological advancements require greater quantities of these materials. The 2023 US Department of Energy Critical Materials Assessment report listed

SRAD | Oct. 15, 2024

Re-Asserting the Value of the Individual for Latin America’s Security an...

Empowerment of the individual, not the state, is the key to innovation, prosperity, physical and political security for Latin America, as the region engages with an unprecedented array of challenges and new partners.

SRAD | Oct. 9, 2024

PRC Strategic Adaptation in Africa

The People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s expanding security footprint in Africa, marked by increased military cooperation and infrastructure investments, poses a significant challenge to US strategic interests. As outlined in the Department of

SRAD | Oct. 9, 2024

Peace and Unity: China’s Growing Military Footprint in Tanzania

The July and August 2024 Sino-Tanzanian training exercise Peace Unity-2024 (和平团结-2024) provided the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) an opportunity to apply its growing joint expeditionary capability, while also strengthening its relationship with a


SRAD | Sept. 24, 2024

“A Baseline Assessment of the PLA Army's Border Reinforcement Operations...

In episode 18 of CLSC Dialogues, Josh Arostegui interviews prominent China expert Dennis Blasko on his analysis of PLA Army and Boader Defense Unit activity along the Line of Actual Control between China and India. He describes the development of

SRAD | Sept. 23, 2024

Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termin...

As wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue with little end in sight, the sense of urgency to determine how they should end is increasing, given how the wars could end. A just war aims to establish a better state of peace, but a better state of peace may

SRAD | Sept. 20, 2024

Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’

Whether and how NATO might pull Ukraine closer attracted a great deal of attention at the 2024 Washington summit, with the Alliance settling on the formulation of an ‘irreversible path’ towards Kyiv’s membership and pledging to further

SRAD | Sept. 19, 2024

The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24

What more can US allies in Europe do to assist Ukraine militarily? More broadly, what can the United States expect from its closest allies in Europe in strategic competition with Russia and China? In this monograph, John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson

SRAD | Sept. 18, 2024

The Growing Significance of China-Russia Defense Cooperation

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s two recent meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, especially his visit to Beijing in May, reinforced US and allied concerns about the China-Russia relationship, especially the two countries’ growing security

SRAD | Sept. 13, 2024

Brazil’s Attempt to Control X: The Deterioration of the Liberal World Order

Elon Musk’s clash with the Lula government raises the issue of how to promote democracy and free speech in the new technological era.

SRAD | Sept. 12, 2024

Bolivia and US Dilemmas in Engaging with Problematic Regimes in Latin Am...

I recently had the opportunity to engage with a senior Bolivian colleague connected with the government of Luis Arce regarding the country’s economic and political difficulties and its relationship with the United States. Their fundamental question

SRAD | Aug. 27, 2024

The Impact of the Political Orientation of Latin America, on the Advance...

Latin America is currently undergoing unprecedented political shifts. This phenomenon is characterized by the recent electoral victories of left-ofcenter candidates in Mexico in 2018; Argentina in 2019; Peru, Honduras, and Chile in 2021; and in

SRAD | Aug. 26, 2024

Ukraine has invaded Russia, what happens next?

Ukraine shocked Russia and its allies by launching a surprise attack on the Kursk region and has now seized over 1200 square kilometres of enemy territory. Will this operation prove pivotal for the war or could it turn into a strategic

SRAD | Aug. 26, 2024

Protracted War Series: A Discussion with Markus Garlauskas

In episode 17 of CLSC Dialogues, Markus Garlauskas discusses why we should think about the potential for a protracted war in the Indo-Pacific and what lessons we should be learning from analyzing the topic. He talks about why we should think about

SRAD | Aug. 21, 2024

Satellites in the Russia-Ukraine War 

.adetail.news .article-body { max-width: 90% !important; }Satellites and counterspace systems have shown themselves to be important parts of modern warfare in the Russia-Ukraine War but have also been subject to various restrictions to prevent

SRAD | Aug. 20, 2024

Protracted War Series: A Discussion with COL Marco Lyons

In episode 16 of CLSC Dialogues, COL Marco Lyons discusses how the Pacific Army sees, understands, and utilizes landpower in the region from peacetime to a potential protracted war. He further articulates how the U.S. Army, Pacific conducts

SRAD | Aug. 15, 2024

Russia's Deepening Ties to North Korea: China's Gateway to the Arctic?

Recently, the Moscow Times reported that Russia would coordinate a deal with China and North Korea to allow Chinese ships to navigate through a seventeen-kilometer stretch of the Tumen River to the Rason Special Economic Zone (SEZ) on the Pacific

SRAD | Aug. 14, 2024

AY25 Campaign Planning Handbook

The purpose of this document is to assist United States Army War College students during the Military Strategy and Campaigning (MSC) course. It also serves to assist commanders, planners, and other staff officers in combatant commands (CCMD), joint

SRAD | Aug. 14, 2024

The NATO Strategic Concept on Its Seventy-Fifth Anniversary

| Published by Army University Press Military Review, July-August 2024 |  The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will celebrate its seventy-fifth anniversary at its 2024 summit in Washington, D.C. NATO’s age tells a story of alliance endurance

SRAD | Aug. 8, 2024

Protracted War Series: A discussion with Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens

In episode 15 of CLSC Dialogues, Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens looks at the potential for a protracted war between the US and China by exploring how a conflict could start and variables the CCP leadership may be watching. She then addresses public

SRAD | Aug. 2, 2024

Secrecy and Solidarity: PRC Internal Security Partnerships with Socialis...

Publication: China Brief Volume: 24 Issue: 15, The Jamestown Foundation: Global Research & AnalysisThe People’s Republic of China (PRC) engages in extensive security cooperation with other single-party socialist states. This includes deploying the

SRAD | July 25, 2024

Venezuela’s Elections: Hoping for the Best, Preparing for the Worst

As Venezuela moves toward promised national elections on July 28, my heart is with the hopes of Venezuelans for a miracle that will translate their courageous act of voting, into a restoration of democracy. Everything I have seen unfold in the

SRAD | July 22, 2024

China, the Illiberal Counter-Order, and the Role of Values in the Strate...

The dynamics of the international order in the third decade of the 21st Century are changing profoundly.  The magnitude and complexity of the change are illustrated by Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, in both its initial failure, and in the ability

SRAD | July 18, 2024

Protracted War Series: A Discussion with Josh Arostegui

In episode 14 of CLSC Dialogues, Josh Arostegui discusses some of the more salient points regarding how prepared the PRC is for a protracted war. He describes how the PLA remains designed to execute large-scale combat operations through the existence

SRAD | July 15, 2024

An Interview with Dennis Blasko

In episode 13 of CLSC Dialogues, Josh Arostegui, and Rick Gunnell interview renowned China expert Dennis Blasko. They discuss the origins of Blasko's interest in China and the PLA, then delve into his research and writing on Chinese landpower. Blasko

SRAD | July 15, 2024

Engagement with China has had a Multifaceted Impact on Latin American De...

While Beijing may not deliberately promote authoritarian regimes in Latin America, implicit risks to the dynamics of democracies arise out of engagement with China.In its public discourse, unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the People’s

SRAD | July 11, 2024

Lieutenant General Robert C. Richardson Jr.: Central Pacific Theater Arm...

Lieutenant General Robert C. Richardson Jr. commanded US Army Forces in Central Pacific Area and US Army Forces, Pacific Ocean Areas. He served as de facto theater Army commander to Admiral Chester W. Nimitz from August 1943 to June 1945, executing

SRAD | July 10, 2024

What’s Behind South Korea’s New Defectors’ Day Holiday?

The inaugural July commemoration is an inflection point and an opportunity for the Yoon government to advance both domestic and foreign policy priorities.On July 14, South Korea will commemorate its inaugural North Korean Defectors’ Day. The new

SRAD | July 8, 2024

NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial

Taking the necessary steps to fully operationalize deterrence by denial is critical — especially before a possible change in America’s relationship with NATO.Recent revelations that the Chinese government has been substantially aiding Russia’s war

SRAD | July 8, 2024

Paraguay’s Security Challenges and the Government Response

The land-locked South American country of Paraguay receives little attention in Washington D.C. relative to its strategic importance for the region and the U.S. It is larger than Germany, and like Germany, its impact, and the nature of its

SRAD | July 2, 2024

On "War with China: A View from Early 2024"

Episode 12 of CLSC Dialogues: In 2012, the late diplomat and RAND Corporation Senior Fellow James Dobbins wrote an article titled “War with China,” which was published in the journal Survival. The article asserted that there were several potential

SRAD | July 1, 2024

Landpower, Homeland Defense, and Defending Forward in US Indo-Pacific Co...

Homeland defense does not begin at the water’s edge, at least not on the east and west coasts of the United States. In the twenty-first–century geopolitical environment, the definition of homeland defense must now extend well beyond North American

SRAD | June 28, 2024

COMMENTARY: Studying Landpower in the Indo-Pacific

The China Landpower Studies Center at the U.S. Army War College produces research and analysis of China's strategic landpower for U.S. policymakers and military leaders. For many casual observers, the U.S. Army has little to say in how a future war

SRAD | June 27, 2024

A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force

The Russia-Ukraine War represents a strategic inflection point that provides valuable insights into the future of war and how the US military must adapt. This book identifies the lessons the US Army must learn from the Russia-Ukraine War as the

SRAD | June 26, 2024

On the 5th Security Force

In episode 11 of CLSC Dialogues, Colonel Rich Butler and Colonel Brandon Teague discuss the 5th Security Force Assistance Brigade and its contributions to the US Indo-Pacific and how persistent presence and advisory roles contribute to the concept of

SRAD | June 24, 2024

PODCAST: Chinese Strategy and Statecraft: Coercion and Competition in th...

What are the objectives of China’s foreign and security policies under Xi Jinping?  What is the role of Australia and other middle powers in responding to Chinese actions in the Indo-Pacific?  Are the United States’ China policies set to change with

SRAD | June 24, 2024

PODCAST: Paramilitaries Abroad: China’s Use of Nontraditional Security F...

Episode 107 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast examines how China uses its paramilitary and internal security forces to project power abroad and build global influence.Our guests begin by dissecting the Chinese security apparatus: contrasting the

SRAD | June 18, 2024

"Arming Allies and Partners: How Foreign Military Sales Can Change the C...

In episode 10 of CLSC Dialogues, MAJ Brennan Deveraux, national security researcher in the Strategic Studies Institute, and Josh Arostegui, research director and chair of the China Landpower Studies Center, discuss Deveraux's recent article, "Arming

SRAD | June 11, 2024

Politics of the North Korean Diaspora

In episode 9 of CLSC Dialogues, Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens discusses her book, Politics of the North Korean Diaspora, which was published by Cambridge University Press in January 2024. The conversation includes a look at how North Korea’s regime

SRAD | June 5, 2024

On Coalition of the unWilling and unAble: European Realignment and the F...

In episode 8, COL Rich Butler and Dr. John Deni discuss Deni's book Coalition of the unWilling and unAble: European Realignment and the Future of American Geopolitics. The conversation addresses Europe's relationship with China and what it means for

SRAD | May 30, 2024

China Center Director Series – China Maritime Studies Institute

In episode 7 of CLSC Dialogues, Christopher Sharman and Dr. Andrew S. Erickson discuss the China Maritime Studies Institute at the Naval War College. Sharman serves as the director of the China Maritime Studies Institute and Erickson—who helped stand

SRAD | May 29, 2024

China Center Director Series – Center for the Study of Chinese Military ...

In episode 6, Dr. Phillip C. Saunders, the director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs in the Institute for National Strategic Studies at National Defense University, discusses the organization’s research efforts, product lines,

SRAD | May 29, 2024

Parameters | Summer 2024

The Summer issue is out! In this edition: "What American Policymakers Misunderstand about the Belt and Road Initiative" by Zenel Garcia and Phillip Guerreiro; A Major's Perspective “Professional Discourse Is Shaping the Force”; Civil-Military

SRAD | May 29, 2024

Playing Both Sides of the U.S.-Chinese Rivalry

Why Countries Get External Security from Washington—and Internal Security from BeijingOn a visit to Budapest in late February, China’s minister of public security, Wang Xiaohong, secured a face-to-face meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor

SRAD | May 28, 2024

China Center Director Series – Marine Corps University

Episode 5 of CLSC Dialogues features Daniel Rice, the China political and military strategy subject matter expert at Marine Corps University. In this episode, he explains how Marine Corps University and its Brute Krulak Center for Innovation and

SRAD | May 28, 2024

The New NATO Force Model: Ready For Launch?

Allies are in the process of a dramatic change to the Alliance’s force structure, which will see the NATO Response Force (NRF) replaced with a three tiered structure of Allied forces, to include an Allied Reaction Force (ARF), all of which is

SRAD | May 27, 2024

China Center Director Series – China Aerospace Studies Institute

Episode 4 features Dr. Brendan Mulvaney is the director of the department of the Air Force's China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI). In this episode, Mulvaney introduces CASI, its mission, researchers, product lines, and more. The organization is

SRAD | May 23, 2024

China-Argentina Space Engagement

This work examines China - Argentine Space Collaboration, with a focus on the PRC Operated Deep Space Radar Facility in Neuquén. It argues that in interest of national development, and in the context of hopes for benefit from Argentina’s broader

SRAD | May 20, 2024

China Center Director Series – China Landpower Studies Center

In episode 3 of CLSC Dialogues, COL Rich Butler, director of the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC) in the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College, discusses the scope and mission of the CLSC and introduces its researchers and 2024

SRAD | May 13, 2024

Argentina: Security Challenges and the Government Response

Summary: In addition to Argentina’s profound economic crisis, the nation faces serious security challenges. These include use of the country as a drug transit zone, including cocaine from Bolivia and Peru bound for Europe and marijuana from

SRAD | May 1, 2024

Paraguay: A Promising Government Navigating a Perilous Path

The greatest gift that Cartes can give the country and President Peña is to empower Peña to take the real and symbolic steps to frontally tackle corruption. Paraguay, a land-locked country at the heart of South America, is strategically important for

SRAD | April 25, 2024

Now It’s Up to Europe to Take the Lead in Ukraine

Continental security can no longer be outsourced to the U.S., which may soon have other wars to fight.By John R. Deni and Lisa A. AronssonUkrainians are breathing a sigh of relief. Within days, desperately needed ammunition and military equipment

SRAD | April 24, 2024

The Role and Impact of US Army Pacific in the Indo-Pacific Region

In the second episode of CLSC Dialogues: Landpower in the Indo-Pacific, General Charles A. Flynn, commander of US Army Pacific and Colonel Rich Butler, director of the China Landpower Studies Center, discuss the role and impact of the US Army in the

SRAD | April 18, 2024

Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: An American Perspective

In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems

SRAD | April 17, 2024

Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as a Pacing Challenge –...

The US Army War College’s 2023 Conference on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was held February 22 to 24, 2023, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference, entitled “Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as Pacing Challenge,”

SRAD | April 12, 2024

Risk, Rumors, and Reprisals: The Imagined Side of Professional Writing

With the Army’s renewed emphasis on professional writing, a disturbing narrative will likely resurface that publishing is dangerous to an author’s career. While many have articulated the benefits of joining the professional discourse, myself

SRAD | April 11, 2024

War with China: A View from Early 2024

US defense analysts are overdue for a fundamental reassessment of the strategic factors that would shape a future Sino-American war.The United States may lower the overall risk of sparking a war between Washington and Beijing by more formally

SRAD | April 9, 2024

A Baseline Assessment of the PLA Army's Border Reinforcement Operations ...

This report analyzes the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) border reinforcement operation throughout the Aksai Chin and adjacent areas from summer 2020 to early 2021. It is based largely on analysis of Google Earth imagery and provides a baseline for


SRAD | April 4, 2024

At 75, NATO Is Still Worth the Price

Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance.The North Atlantic Alliance should justifiably mark the

SRAD | March 28, 2024

Research Handbook on NATO "Collective Defense"

Collective defense is back at center stage for NATO. This is primarily due to Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine, its illegal annexation of Crimea, and the subsequent and more brutal second invasion of 2022, all of which prompted NATO to fundamentally

SRAD | March 27, 2024

New Technologies and Emerging Trends in the Indo-Pacific

In this inaugural episode of CLSC Dialogues: Landpower in the Indo-Pacific, Lieutenant General Xavier T. Brunson, the commanding general of I Corps and Joint Base Lewis-McChord, retired Major General Mick Ryan of the Australian Army, and Colonel Rich

SRAD | March 20, 2024

Arming Allies and Partners: How Foreign Military Sales Can Change the Ch...

Allies and partners are “a center of gravity” for the DoD National Defense Strategy in the Indo-Pacific. But are regional nations building military capacity to help the United States prepare for and deter a potential clash with the People’s Republic

SRAD | March 12, 2024

Argentina Political and Economic Challenges

From February 24 through March 2, I traveled to Argentina to speak with government, business and academic experts regarding the situation in the country, including 27 interactions involving some 300 people. Argentina is at a pivotal moment, as its

SRAD | March 5, 2024

EXPLAINER: What Is Article 5 and How Does it Shape NATO’s Ukraine Response?

Sweden, a neutral country for two centuries, is joining NATO in a moveexperts say will have a significant impact on global politics.The Swedish Island of Gotland, located 120 miles southeast of Stockholm and slightly smaller than Rhode Island, is

SRAD | March 4, 2024

Look deeper: Time may be on Ukraine’s side

If Kyiv can hold out through the next winter—a big if—there are trends that run in its favor.Conventional wisdom is that time is on Russia’s side as Ukraine battles to fend off Moscow’s invasion. Although much remains unclear, it seems certain that

SRAD | March 4, 2024

The Case for Containing, Not Coddling, Maduro

From 2019 to 2020, I had the honor of serving on Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s policy planning staff (S/P). One of my priority focus areas was the dictatorship of Nicholas Maduro and the dangers it posed to the Venezuelan people and to the

SRAD | Feb. 26, 2024

China’s Security Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean

An overview of the characteristics and trends in China’s security engagement in the region, and how it is evolving.China’s activities in the security and defense sector in Latin America and the Caribbean are a small but strategically significant

SRAD | Feb. 20, 2024

Why North Korea Survives

Here’s how the Kim regime has proven so resilient.North Korea’s recent jettisoning of reunification with South Korea as a national goal has raised much speculation about Pyongyang’s goals and strategy. Relatively overlooked in recent debates over

SRAD | Feb. 16, 2024

China-Latin America Space Cooperation: An Overview

As China has increased its political and economic cooperation with Latin America, it has also expanded its space engagement with the region.In September 2023, during a visit to China, Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro announced an agreement in

SRAD | Feb. 14, 2024

CMSI Note #4: Deck Cargo Ships: Another Option for a Cross-Strait Invasion

CMSI Perspectives and Key Take-Aways: In addition to RO-RO ferries, the PLA also uses another class of RO-RO ship, the deck cargo ship, in sea transport training exercises. Deck cargo ships are widely used in China’s ocean engineering and

SRAD | Feb. 8, 2024

PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Compa...

PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights R. Evan Ellis Over the past twenty years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has expanded its political, institutional, economic, and other forms of

SRAD | Feb. 8, 2024

The Mixed Message About China's Economy

Chinese Premier Li Qiang spoke this week at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, saying the Chinese economy was doing just fine. Signals out of Beijing have been conveying a different message.SHEENA CHESTNUT GREITENS: So I think that the idea

SRAD | Feb. 6, 2024

Argentina's Milei Returns Idea of Limited Gov't to Global Stage In Latin...

The nine most terrifying words in the English language are:I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help.— Ronald Reagan - Aug. 12, 1986Most Argentines did not elect eclectic libertarian Javier Milei in November 2023 because they understood his

SRAD | Feb. 2, 2024

Strategic Implications of the Deterioration of the Rules-Based Internati...

The multiple crises currently playing out in Ukraine, the Middle East, the Taiwan straits, and even Guyana’s Essequibo region, reflect a deterioration of the rules-based international order that has served as the foundation for economic growth,