Recent Publications

Parameters | Summer 2024
May 29, 2024 — The Summer issue is out! In this edition: "What American Policymakers Misunderstand about the Belt and Road Initiative" by Zenel Garcia and Phillip Guerreiro; A Major's Perspective “Professional Discourse Is Shaping the Force”; Civil-Military Relations Corner, "Introduction to the US Army War College Civil-Military Relations Center"; "Exploring the Nexus of Military and Society at a 50-Year Milestone" by Patricia M. Shields; For the latest on the Russia-Ukraine War, Middle East, and Professional Development, check out the new issue... MORE

China, the Illiberal Counter-Order, and the Role of Values in the Strategic Response
July 22, 2024 — The dynamics of the international order in the third decade of the 21st Century are changing profoundly. The magnitude and complexity of the change are illustrated by Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, in both its initial failure, and in the ability of the Putin administration in Russia to sustain its costly campaign. The new international... MORE

Engagement with China has had a Multifaceted Impact on Latin American Democracy
July 15, 2024 — While Beijing may not deliberately promote authoritarian regimes in Latin America, implicit risks to the dynamics of democracies arise out of engagement with China.In its public discourse, unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the People’s Republic of China has avoided directly challenging Western-style democracy as a system of governance... MORE

Engagement with China has had a Multifaceted Impact on Latin American Democracy
R. Evan Ellis

NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial
July 8, 2024 — Taking the necessary steps to fully operationalize deterrence by denial is critical — especially before a possible change in America’s relationship with NATO.Recent revelations that the Chinese government has been substantially aiding Russia’s war effort in Ukraine — selling the country all it needs to build its own armaments, including microchips... MORE

NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial
John R. Deni
Published by POLITICO

Landpower, Homeland Defense, and Defending Forward in US Indo-Pacific Command
July 1, 2024 — Homeland defense does not begin at the water’s edge, at least not on the east and west coasts of the United States. In the twenty-first–century geopolitical environment, the definition of homeland defense must now extend well beyond North American shores. The network of US military forces stationed throughout the Indo-Pacific provides a strong... MORE

Slde for Landpower, Homeland Defense, and Defending Forward in US Indo-Pacific Command

Playing Both Sides of the U.S.-Chinese Rivalry
May 29, 2024 — Why Countries Get External Security from Washington—and Internal Security from BeijingOn a visit to Budapest in late February, China’s minister of public security, Wang Xiaohong, secured a face-to-face meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to establish a new bilateral security arrangement. China and Hungary agreed to cooperate on law... MORE

Slide for Playing Both Sides of the U.S. Chinese Rivalry

Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as a Pacing Challenge – 2023 PLA Conference – Updated and Expanded
April 17, 2024 — The US Army War College’s 2023 Conference on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was held February 22 to 24, 2023, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference, entitled “Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as Pacing Challenge,” featured presentations on PRC global and regional strategy, and the PLA’s enabling role by experts from a wide range of academic, media, and government agencies and organizations... MORE

War with China: A View from Early 2024
April 11, 2024 — US defense analysts are overdue for a fundamental reassessment of the strategic factors that would shape a future Sino-American war. The United States may lower the overall risk of sparking a war between Washington and Beijing by more formally committing advanced US capabilities in intelligence collection and targeting, long-range fires, and theater air and missile defense to Japan and South Korea and by initiating bilateral planning to introduce such capabilities in Taiwan in the future. The US defense community still lacks a broad and integrated national strategy for successfully managing the rivalry with China. A clear-eyed assessment of a possible United States-China war could lead to a national strategy... MORE

Thumbnail - War with China: A View from Early 2024

A Baseline Assessment of the PLA Army's Border Reinforcement Operations in the Aksai Chin in 2020 and 2021
April 9, 2024 — This report analyzes the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) border reinforcement operation throughout the Aksai Chin and adjacent areas from summer 2020 to early 2021. It is based largely on analysis of Google Earth imagery and provides a baseline for further analysis of the PLA deployment along the entire Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Aksai Chin. Chinese Army units appear ready to remain in a defensive posture near the LAC the Aksai Chin indefinitely. ... MORE

Implications for Modern Warfighting Concepts: What the US Army Can Learn from Past Conflicts
March 22, 2024 — These four historic vignettes provide context and lessons learned for the US Army as it returns to peer conflict. Although history does not account for the cyber and space domains, the leaders involved in the highlighted conflicts dealt with the reintroduction of maneuver warfare tied to modern fires from land, sea, and air. Peer-level conflict also compelled governments to work intensely in the information space to steel... MORE

Implications for Modern Warfighting Concepts: What the US Army Can Learn from Past Conflicts | Richard D. Butler

Arming Allies and Partners: How Foreign Military Sales Can Change the China Problem
March 20, 2024 — Allies and partners are “a center of gravity” for the DoD National Defense Strategy in the Indo-Pacific. But are regional nations building military capacity to help the United States prepare for and deter a potential clash with the People’s Republic of China, or are they solely focused on defending their own territories? Although regional nations’ aims may often overlap, they also diverge... MORE

Arming Allies and Partners: How Foreign Military Sales Can Change the China Problem By Brennan Deveraux

Parameters | Spring 2024
March 7, 2024 — The Spring issue is out! In this edition: “Ukraine: A Case for Urgency” by Anthony L. Tingle and Rebecca W. Jensen and “Strategic Art for Sanctions” by David Katz; SRAD DIRECTOR’S CORNER “Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: A Report from NATO's COE-DAT”; For the latest on the Indo-Pacific, Strategic Thinking, the Middle East, and even the US Civil War check out the new issue... MORE