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Why It Matters That Sweden Is Joining NATO Sweden, a neutral country for two centuries, is joining NATO in a move experts say will have a significant impact on global politics. John Deni quoted in US News & World Report
EXPLAINER: What Is Article 5 and How Does it Shape NATO’s Ukraine Response?
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Look deeper: Time may be on Ukraine’s side
If Kyiv can hold out through the next winter—a big if—there are trends that run in its favor. By John R. Deni
Look deeper: Time may be on Ukraine’s side
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Deterring War without Threatening War: Rehabilitating the West’s Risk-averse Approach to Deterrence - Military Strategy Magazine
Antulio J. Echevarria II 
https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/deterring-war-without-threatening-war-rehabilitating-the-wests-risk-averse-approach-to-deterrence/
Deterring War without Threatening War: Rehabilitating the West’s Risk-averse Approach to Deterrence
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Is the Baltic Sea a NATO Lake? 
John R. Deni
Is the Baltic Sea a NATO Lake? 
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Budget cuts and an eroded weapons industry have hollowed out armed services; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals risks

“People may say the Russians have taken it on the chin, and we don’t need to worry. That’s a valid point, but it ignores residual Russian strength,” said John Deni, a professor at the U.S. Army War College and an expert on European militaries. “If the Russians present us with a mass problem in Europe, the challenge is, can technology and advanced capabilities do it? And there we see some challenges.”

Article quote and background image from:
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/alarm-nato-weak-military-empty-arsenals-europe-a72b23f4
Alarm Grows Over Weakened Militaries and Empty Arsenals in Europe
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How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
by John R. Deni
Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is just months away, and allies are eagerly preparing the agenda.

This time around, several member countries are keen to avoid the kind of divisive discussions over Ukraine’s path to membership that publicly played out at last year’s summit in Vilnius — and none more so than hosting nation the United States.

Background image from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_%E2%80%93_NATO_Commission_chaired_by_Petro_Poroshenko_(2017-07-10)_48.jpg
How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
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Expert Analysis on Latest Attacks in Ukraine
US Army War College | Strategic Studies Institute

Military expert John Deni talks to CNN's Laila Harrak about Russian attacks on civilians, and the question of U.S. aid.
Expert analysis on latest attacks in Ukraine | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/07/exp-ukraine-laila-guest-fst-100702aseg1.cnn)

CNN Host Laila Guest interviews John R. Deni on the current situation in Ukraine. 

Photo is a screenshot of the CNN interview.
Expert Analysis on Latest Attacks in Ukraine
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From the Archives
NATO’s Defense Demands Eastern Front Improvements
NATO’s Defense Demands Eastern Front Improvements
July 20, 2023 - John R. Deni The recent summit largely avoided urgent questions about the mismatch between available forces and the Russian threat. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s rather impolitic reaction to the news that his...

NATO Vilnius Summit could have been historic. Instead, it mostly kicked the can down the road.
NATO Vilnius Summit could have been historic. Instead, it mostly kicked the can down the road. 
John R. Deni
July 14, 2023 - John R. Deni argues that at the NATO Summit, “there was little significant movement on several key issues, leaving much on the table for the alliance’s 75th birthday summit next year in Washington, DC.” With the Vilnius...

We don’t really know which NATO allies are pulling their weight.
We don’t really know which NATO allies are pulling their weight.
John R. Deni

The Defense Investment Pledge agreed to by NATO allies in 2014 is reaching its decade-long finish line. The Alliance’s own data indicate that not all allies will cross that line, as many still spend less than the equivalent of 2 percent of their gross domestic products on defense and several still devote less than 20 percent of their defense budgets to acquisition and related research and development. Nonetheless, some allies like the United States are advocating to increase the 2 percent target. This is sure to run into resistance. How can the United States and like-minded allies successfully negotiate higher targets? They might start by agreeing to portray NATO burden- and risk-sharing more accurately. Although some argue that inputs like defense spending tell us a lot about outputs like contributions to Alliance operations, recently available data indicate this is not necessarily the case: New statistical analysis shows that whether or not a country has met the 2 percent spending target doesn’t tell us whether or not they’re contributing equally to the Alliance’s mission. If burden- and risk-sharing could be portrayed more accurately, those opposed to increasing the input targets might be more willing to reconsider. Even if they do not, improving how NATO depicts burden- and risk-sharing would benefit lawmakers, analysts, academics, and the public. Recommendations on how to achieve this follow the statistical analysis.

Continue reading the article https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/natos-next-burden-sharing-agreement/
July 10, 2023 - Here’s how to fix that. John R. Deni  The Defense Investment Pledge agreed to by NATO allies in 2014 is reaching its decade-long finish line. The Alliance’s own data indicate that not all allies will cross that line, as many...

Debate continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join NATO
Debate continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join NATO
Podcast appearance.
John R. Deni

As leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, meet at the annual summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, the conversation continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join the alliance and if so, when.

Here & Now‘s Celeste Headlee speaks with John Deni, research professor at the U.S. Army War College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
July 10, 2023 - Podcast appearance. John R. Deni As leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, meet at the annual summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, the conversation continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join the alliance...

Don’t Promise Ukraine NATO Membership Now
Don’t Promise Ukraine NATO Membership Now
John R. Deni
Bringing Kyiv into the alliance soon could harden Russia’s resolve, frustrate potential peace efforts, and play into the Kremlin’s propaganda.


In two months, NATO leaders will gather in Vilnius for their annual summit, and leading the agenda will be the West’s ongoing support for Ukraine today and in the years ahead. Prominent experts have called for the United States and its trans-Atlantic allies to formally lay out a path for Ukrainian membership in NATO, one that is clearer than the mere promise of eventually joining the club, or at least to provide Ukraine with some other kind of security guarantee short of NATO membership.

Continue reading the article
May 19, 2023 - Bringing Kyiv into the alliance soon could harden Russia’s resolve, frustrate potential peace efforts, and play into the Kremlin’s propaganda.John R. DeniIn two months, NATO leaders will gather in Vilnius for their annual...

Stress-Testing Chinese-Russian Relations
Stress-Testing Chinese-Russian Relations
Robert E. Hamilton

A debate over the nature of the China-Russia relationship has raged for almost two decades. One side believes the two are strategic partners; the other believes their ties are an “axis of convenience” lacking depth.

Understanding the true nature of their relationship is of vital importance to U.S. national security. A true strategic partnership represents a grave threat; less robust ties between the two give the U.S. more latitude in dealing with them.

We can gain a deeper, more nuanced understanding of China-Russia ties by observing how they interact in regions of the world where they both have important interests at stake. Four regions emerge as key here: Central Asia, Africa, Eastern Europe, and East Asia.

Continue reading the article: https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/05/stress-testing-chinese-russian-relations/
May 9, 2023 - Robert E. Hamilton A debate over the nature of the China-Russia relationship has raged for almost two decades. One side believes the two are strategic partners; the other believes their ties are an “axis of convenience”...

Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency NATO COE-DAT Handbook 2
Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency NATO COE-DAT Handbook 2 by Sarah J. Lohmann.

Read at https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/957/

Book cover and artwork created using images from Freepik and Unsplash: LiuZiShan, “Study the halls of biology” and Alyona Grishina, “Man in black crew neck shirt”.
Dec. 2, 2022 - Every day, malicious actors target emerging technologies and medical resilience or seek to wreak havoc in the wake of disasters brought on by climate change, energy insecurity, and supply-chain disruptions. Countering...

Religion and Resistance
Ukrainian Orthodox and Greek Catholic Churches in Resistance Efforts in the War Against Russia
Nov. 1, 2022 - The Ukrainian Orthodox and Greek Catholic Churchesin Resistance Efforts in the War Against RussiaHeather S. Gregg, 2022, the Foreign Policy Research InstituteAs the Russian-instigated war in Ukraine nears its first-year...

Biden’s National Security Strategy: A New Era in Eurasia
Biden’s National Security Strategy: A New Era in Eurasia
Robert E. Hamilton, October 26, 2022, the Foreign Policy Research Institute
Oct. 28, 2022 - Robert E. Hamilton, October 26, 2022, the Foreign Policy Research Institute Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused a reorientation of US national security policy toward “constraining” Russia While China remains the long-term...