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South & Latin America
Argentina Political and Economic Challenges | R. Evan Ellis
Argentina Political and Economic Challenges
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The Case for Containing, Not Coddling, Maduro The inability of the U.S. to facilitate a return to democracy in Venezuela does not justify accommodating dictatorship in the name of engagement. by R. Evan Ellis
The Case for Containing, Not Coddling, Maduro
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China’s Security Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean An overview of the characteristics and trends in China’s security engagement in the region, and how it is evolving.
China’s Security Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean
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China-Latin America Space Cooperation: An Overview By R. Evan Ellis As China has increased its political and economic cooperation with Latin America, it has also expanded its space engagement with the region. https://thediplomat.com/2024/02/china-latin-america-space-cooperation-an-overview/
China-Latin America Space Cooperation: An Overview
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PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights | R. Evan Ellis
PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights
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Argentina's Milei Returns Idea of Limited Gov't to Global Stage In Latin America | R. Evan Ellis
Argentina's Milei Returns Idea of Limited Gov't to Global Stage In Latin America
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Strategic Implications of the Deterioration of the Rules-Based International Order | R. Evan Ellis
Strategic Implications of the Deterioration of the Rules-Based International Order
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Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn’t Falling | R. Evan Ellis Background image from United Press International via Global Americans Article (https://theglobalamericans.org/perspectives-on-ecuador-the-sky-isnt-falling)
Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn’t Falling
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China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua – R. Evan Ellis in The Diplomat https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/chinas-growing-strategic-position-in-nicaragua/
China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua
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The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now - Evan Ellis - The Dispatch Background image from article: https://thedispatch.com/article/the-monroe-doctrine-then-and-now/
The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now
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By R. Evan Ellis In the context of unfolding global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the dangers of an increasingly aggressive yet economically fragile People’s Republic of China (PRC), Venezuela’s provocative referendum on its claim to two thirds of the territory of neighboring Guyana has received understandably little attention in Washington, D.C. Original background image from article: https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/would-venezuela-really-invade-essequibo/
Would Venezuela Really Invade Essequibo?
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The resource rich, land-locked South American nation of Bolivia has traditionally received limited attention from Washington. The country, historically mired in poverty, corruption, and cycles of political conflict is one of the hemisphere’s major sources for coca and illegally mined gold, as well as a transit country for both. Bolivia’s leftist populist Movement for Socialism (MAS) governments of Evo Morales and Luis Arce have made the country an important point of entry into the hemisphere for extra-hemispheric U.S. rivals including the People’s Republic of China, Russia, and Iran. In recent weeks, a power struggle has emerged for control of the MAS between current President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales. This has implications for the stability of the country as it plays out in the context of crosscutting political rivalries, economic difficulties, and a significant criminal economy with competing interests. This work examines the deteriorating situation in Bolivia and the potential implications for the region. Image adapted from: https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/bolivias-descent-into-deep-chaos-and-the-implications-for-the-region/
Bolivia’s Descent into Deep Chaos and the Implications for the Region
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From the Archives
China’s Security Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean
China’s Security Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean An overview of the characteristics and trends in China’s security engagement in the region, and how it is evolving. China’s activities in the security and defense sector in Latin America and the Caribbean are a small but strategically significant portion of its engagement with the region. Beijing has openly acknowledged its interest in engaging with the region on security matters in the 2008 and 2016 China-Latin America Policy White Papers, as well as in the 2022-2024 China-CELAC plan. That interest is also reflected in the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs white paper elaborating on China’s Global Security initiative. The security dimension of China’s engagement in the region has been highlighted by the head of U.S. Southern Command and other senior U.S. defense officials, as well as receiving occasional coverage in the media and academic works, generally with a focus on the threat posed to the United States. Background image from Deposit Photos via The Diplomat (https://thediplomat.com/2024/02/chinas-security-engagement-in-latin-america-and-the-caribbean/)
Feb. 26, 2024 - An overview of the characteristics and trends in China’s security engagement in the region, and how it is evolving.China’s activities in the security and defense sector in Latin America and the Caribbean are a small but...
China-Latin America Space Cooperation: An Overview
China-Latin America Space Cooperation: An Overview By R. Evan Ellis As China has increased its political and economic cooperation with Latin America, it has also expanded its space engagement with the region. In September 2023, during a visit to China, Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro announced an agreement in which China would transport Venezuelans to a research base it plans to build on the moon, the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) project. As illustrated by the deal, China’s expanding space capabilities create imperatives for associated engagement around the globe, from initiatives to build international coalitions, such as ILRS, to the search for access to ground stations and other space communication sites to support China’s expanding constellation of satellites, which currently number 700, as well as beyond-Earth missions. Deepening rivalry with the United States also makes China’s access to space from points in both hemispheres and the polar regions a strategic imperative for the space component of any future conflict with the West. Photo from article: https://thediplomat.com/2024/02/china-latin-america-space-cooperation-an-overview/
Feb. 16, 2024 - As China has increased its political and economic cooperation with Latin America, it has also expanded its space engagement with the region.In September 2023, during a visit to China, Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro...
PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights
Over the past twenty years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has expanded its political, institutional, economic, and other forms of engagement with all regions of the world. Not surprisingly, because engagement in Latin America and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is formulated by the same Chinese Communist Party and PRC-based state-owned enterprises (SOE), it is broadly comparable across regions. 1 Differences in PRC engagements between regions generally reflect differences between government types, particular business opportunities, strategic geography, historical relationships, and Chinese familiarity with the target country, among others. A comparative examination of PRC engagement across regions offers insights by helping to identify common patterns and differences, focusing on the reasons why each occurs. 2  There is a limited but growing volume of work in English on PRC engagement with Central and Eastern Europe. Important works include the Carnegie Foundation report “China’s Influence in Southeastern, Central and Eastern Europe.” 3 Other works include works by think tanks such as China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe 4 and the Washington, DC based Center for European Policy Analysis. 5 Read Now
Feb. 8, 2024 - PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights R. Evan Ellis Over the past twenty years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has expanded its political, institutional, economic,...
Argentina's Milei Returns Idea of Limited Gov't to Global Stage In Latin America
The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help. —Ronald Reagan - Aug. 12, 1986 Most Argentines did not elect eclectic libertarian Javier Milei in November 2023 because they understood his economic philosophy. Rather, they were exasperated by the economic disaster of the leftist Peronist government of Alberto Fernandez, with inflation racing toward 140%, making buying basic goods a daily struggle, plus an impending debt default, evidence of official corruption, and increasing public insecurity. Yet Argentines were also skeptical of the traditional right. Its prior businessman President, Mauricio Macri (2015 to 2019), facing a similarly impossible set of economic challenges and political obstacles, also left the government in financial crisis and economic freefall. https://www.newsmax.com/evanellis/capitalist-libertarianism-milei/2024/02/05/id/1152304/
Feb. 6, 2024 - The nine most terrifying words in the English language are:I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help.— Ronald Reagan - Aug. 12, 1986Most Argentines did not elect eclectic libertarian Javier Milei in November 2023 because...
Strategic Implications of the Deterioration of the Rules-Based International Order
The multiple crises currently playing out in Ukraine, the Middle East, the Taiwan straits, and even Guyana’s Essequibo region, reflect a deterioration of the rules-based international order that has served as the foundation for economic growth, technological progress, and the limitation of interstate conflict since the end of the Second World War. The current deterioration is a product of the expansion of PRC economic and other power as the country pursues its interests, complimented by the enabling effect of that pursuit on a range of illiberal states, with distinct agendas, but united by a common interest in limiting the constraints of that order as they pursue their own interests. Over the long run, the deterioration of the rules-based order undermines democracy and economic progress and facilitates transnational crime and domestic conflict. It may also expand the frequency of inter-state conflict, even in Latin America, in a system in which militarily “stronger” authoritarian regimes increasingly lack constraint in taking what they want from their weaker neighbors. Governments in the region may rediscover the relevance of their militaries in defending the nation against external, as well as environmental, criminal, and internal challenges. Keywords: People’s Republic of China, Rules-Based World Order, Illiberal Governments. https://ceeep.mil.pe/2024/02/01/implicaciones-estrategicas-del-deterioro-del-orden-internacional-basado-en-normas/?lang=en
Feb. 2, 2024 - The multiple crises currently playing out in Ukraine, the Middle East, the Taiwan straits, and even Guyana’s Essequibo region, reflect a deterioration of the rules-based international order that has served as the foundation...
Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn’t Falling
The takeover of Ecuadorian TV station TC in the middle of a widely watched news broadcast, Ecuadoran President Daniel Noboa’s declaration of a state of internal armed conflict, and his deployment of the military as part of the response dominated international news and captured the attention of Washington policymakers last week. Ecuador’s homicide rate has increased eightfold over the past eight years, including almost doubling last year to over 8,000 murders, giving the country a murder rate of 46.5 per 100,000, one of the highest in the region. The number of murders in prisons has similarly almost doubled to over 400 last year. Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn't Falling - Global Americans (theglobalamericans.org) Background image from United Press International via Global Americans Article (https://theglobalamericans.org/perspectives-on-ecuador-the-sky-isnt-falling)
Jan. 22, 2024 - The takeover of Ecuadorian TV station TC in the middle of a widely watched news broadcast, Ecuadoran President Daniel Noboa’s declaration of a state of internal armed conflict, and his deployment of the military as part of...
China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua
China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua – R. Evan Ellis in The Diplomat https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/chinas-growing-strategic-position-in-nicaragua/ Background images from Vecteezy (China: https://www.vecteezy.com/video/1618488-china-flag) and FreePik (Nicaragua: https://www.freepik.com/free-photo/waving-flag-nicaragua_10419403.htm)
Dec. 21, 2023 - R. Evan Ellis | The October 2023 announcement of multiple major infrastructure projects to be performed by Chinese companies in Nicaragua highlights China’s deepening strategic position in that country, with significant...
The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now
The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now - Evan Ellis - The Dispatch In November 2013, then-Secretary of State John Kerry declared, to thunderous applause, that “the era of the Monroe Doctrine is over.” Flash forward to 2019 and John Bolton, the national security adviser at the time, proclaimed that the Monroe Doctrine was alive and well. Within six years, high-level administration officials had shown the range of views toward the 200-year-old proclamation and U.S. policy in Latin America more broadly: While the left tends to treat the Monroe Doctrine as a symbol of the imposition of U.S. hegemony, the right regards it as a defense of U.S. strategic interests in the hemisphere. Despite those divergent views, the Monroe Doctrine—first proclaimed on this day in 1823 by President James Monroe—deserves renewed attention. Revisiting it should lead us to ask anew how to appropriately engage with our neighbors in Latin America, a task made all the more imperative today by the troubling and often unnoticed activities of China, Russia, and Iran in the hemisphere we share. Background image from article: https://thedispatch.com/article/the-monroe-doctrine-then-and-now/
Dec. 8, 2023 - R. Evan Ellis | In November 2013, then-Secretary of State John Kerry declared, to thunderous applause, that “the era of the Monroe Doctrine is over.” Flash forward to 2019 and John Bolton, the national security adviser at the...
Would Venezuela Really Invade Essequibo?
By R. Evan Ellis In the context of unfolding global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the dangers of an increasingly aggressive yet economically fragile People’s Republic of China (PRC), Venezuela’s provocative referendum on its claim to two thirds of the territory of neighboring Guyana has received understandably little attention in Washington, D.C. Original background image from article: https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/would-venezuela-really-invade-essequibo/
Dec. 4, 2023 - R. Evan Ellis | In the context of unfolding global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the dangers of an increasingly aggressive yet economically fragile People’s Republic of China (PRC), Venezuela’s provocative...
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