Recent Publications

China has acquired a global network of strategically vital ports
November 8, 2023 — Carol V. Evans | A decade ago, Chinese President Xi Jinping launched the Maritime Silk Road, the oceanic component of his flagship Belt and Road Initiative aimed at improving China’s access to world markets by investing in transportation infrastructure. The initiative’s investments have since slowed as Chinese growth falters, the United States... MORE

The expansion is critical to China’s economic power and has significant military implications as well, analysts say. “This is not coincidental,” said Carol Evans, director of the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. “I firmly believe there is a strategic aspect to the particular ports they’re targeting for investment.”

Background photo credit: A dockworker passes by a container ship at the Chinese-operated port of Djibouti in 2015. (Carl de Souza/AFP/Getty Images), from the article https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2023/china-ports-trade-military-navy/

The Strategic Importace of Tawian to the United States and Its Allies: Part Two
October 30, 2023 — Taiwan has become increasingly important to the United States and its allies as the Russia-Ukraine War has united democracies against authoritarian expansionism and indeed has developed an international democracy-authoritarianism dynamic in global affairs. Part one of this article clearly outlined the geopolitical, economic, and soft-power reasons why Taiwan is strategically important. Part two reviews the development... MORE

Comparing China’s Engagement in Africa and Latin America
October 21, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | There are substantial commonalities in Beijing’s engagement between the two regions, but also differences that provide insights into how China-based entities make, and adapt, policies. On October 12-13, 2023, the Jack D. Gordon Institute of Florida International University (FIU) hosted an event bringing together Africa and Latin... MORE

Comparing China’s Engagement in Africa and Latin America
R. Evan Ellis
There are substantial commonalities in Beijing’s engagement between the two regions, but also differences that provide insights into how China-based entities make, and adapt, policies.
https://thediplomat.com/2023/10/comparing-chinas-engagement-in-africa-and-latin-america/

Image credits: Chinese flag from Pexels.com, world map overlay from FreePik.com

Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
October 17, 2023 — Book Review: Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence Author: Paul Scharre| Reviewed by Dr. Robert J. Bunker, director of research and analysis, managing partner, C/O Futures, LLC | Award-winning author Paul Scharre’s latest work, Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, envisions artificial... MORE

Book Review: Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters_bookshelf/27

Author: Paul Scharre

Reviewed by Dr. Robert J. Bunker, director of research and analysis, managing partner, C/O Futures, LLC

TEASER: Award-winning author Paul Scharre’s latest work, Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, envisions artificial intelligence as ushering in a “new industrial revolution” with big military, economic, and political implications. The reviewer sees this “readable, tightly structured” book as “fascinating and important work from a US national security studies perspective” and “after-hours supplemental reading for US military and policy professionals who want to understand the political-military importance of AI and its strategic (in fact, civilizational) implications for the future.”

The Impact of the Turn to the Left on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in Latin
October 5, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | This work uses the comparative method, complemented by quantitative data, to examine engagement by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Latin America as a function of government type, across a range of activities, including trade, investment, infrastructure projects, security relations, and technical architectures over the past... MORE

R. Evan Ellis
This work uses the comparative method, complemented by quantitative data, to examine engagement by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Latin America as a function of government type, across a range of activities, including trade, investment, infrastructure projects, security relations, and technical architectures over the past two decades. The findings indicate that the PRC establishes distinct and often broader forms of engagement with populist, anti-US governments, although this does not necessarily translate into a higher volume of PRC investment or overall trade with those governments. This is the first major work in the growing China–Latin America literature to explicitly analyze the dynamics of PRC engagement across regime type. It contributes to strategic analysis of the PRC challenge in the region by the operational force, including the identification of risks, and the formulation of responses, including credible messaging, in support of a coordinated whole-of-government response to the PRC challenge.

Read now: The Impact of the Turn to the Left on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in Latin

Image adapted from FreePik (https://www.freepik.com/free-vector/coronavirus-map_7456298.htm)

On White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan
September 19, 2023 — In this podcast, US Army Col. Jon Klug and retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan discuss Ryan’s most recent book, White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan, and its potential implications for future warfare. In the summer of 1986, Tom Clancy’s novel Red Storm Rising debuted at number one on the New York Times bestseller list as it brought to life World War III, although a nonnuclear version... MORE

National Security after China’s 20th Party Congress: Trends in Discourse and Policy
August 29, 2023 — The 20th Party Congress in October 2022 affirmed the centrality of Xi Jinping’s vision of national (or state) security in Chinese domestic and foreign policy. Trends in national security discourse and policy at the start of Xi’s third term indicate that Chinese leaders continue to emphasize elements of the “comprehensive national security concept”... MORE

National Security after China’s 20th Party Congress: Trends in Discourse and Policy (prcleader.org) | Sheena Chestnut Greitens

Fernando Villavicencio and the Self-Destructive Collaboration between China and Populist Regimes
August 15, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis Mexico’s relationship with China has always been complicated. Although Chinese migrants formed an important part in Mexico’s national story, the perceived “otherness” of the Chinese community and competition for work led to occasional violence against ethnic Chinese. With the contemporary expansion of the PRC economy, the position of... MORE

Fernando Villavicencio and the Self-Destructive Collaboration between China and Populist Regimes
R. Evan Ellis

Mexico’s Engagement with China and Choices for its Future
August 11, 2023 — R. Evan EllisAs Mexico looks to national elections in June 2024, the expanding engagement that the country is backing into with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will have profound implications for the country’s future, as well as the United States and the rest of the region.BackgroundMexico’s relationship with China has always been complicated... MORE

PacNet #49 – China’s military engagements with Cuba: Implications of a strategic advance in Latin America
July 30, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis In June 2023, The Wall Street Journal reported that the People’s Republic of China has heavily invested in a cash-strapped Cuba in exchange for access to an electronic intelligence collection (ELINT) facility, and negotiated an agreement to train Chinese soldiers on the north side of the island. These developments have been met with... MORE

Brazil and the Illiberal Anti-U.S. Alliance
June 20, 2023 — R. Evan EllisDuring World War II, Brazil contributed to the security of allied trans-Atlantic shipping routes and sent a division-sized expeditionary force to Italy to help liberate Europe from Hitler and Mussolini’s murderous dictatorships. In 1985, Brazilians rallied around Tancredo Neves and José Sarney to end undemocratic military rule... MORE

Brazil and the Illiberal Anti-U.S. Alliance
Jun 20, 2023 | China, R. Evan Ellis, South & Latin America, SSI Worldwide

The Advance of China and Authoritarian Populism in Honduras
June 9, 2023 — R. Evan EllisIn Latin America, it is strategically important that the United States distinguish between principled left-oriented democratic regimes versus those which seek to manage the alarm of Washington and Western investors as they pursue a fundamentally anti-democratic, anti-market, anti-U.S. course. It is time for Washington to recognize that... MORE

The Advance of China and Authoritarian Populism in Honduras
R. Evan Ellis