Recent Publications

Coercing Fluently: The Grammar of Coercion in the Twenty-first Century
October 31, 2022 — To illustrate the logic and grammar of coercion, this analysis relies on decision-theory methods, such as game theory, that examine the strategic decision-making process in interactions with adversaries and partners. The intent here is not to offer predictive models of rational-actor behavior. Rather, the intent is to use game theory and similar approaches to understand how coercion works better. This analysis considers competitive interactions between actors that have discrete and qualifiable, if not quantifiable, preferences and who behave rationally, though this analysis acknowledges the behavior that is considered rational is frequently informed by nonrational social, cultural, and psychological factors. Considering these competitive interactions allows one to identify “rules of thumb” that can orient and guide actors as they compete... MORE

Biden’s National Security Strategy: A New Era in Eurasia
October 28, 2022 — Robert E. Hamilton, October 26, 2022, the Foreign Policy Research Institute Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused a reorientation of US national security policy toward “constraining” Russia While China remains the long-term US focus, the new National Security Strategy (NSS) sees Russia as a “profoundly dangerous” state that poses an “immediate... MORE

European Strategies in Post-Pandemic Peer Competition: Implications for America
September 22, 2022 — Dr. John R. Deni, Sept 25 2022 in Taylor & Francis OnlineThe recent reconceptualization of national and/or defense strategies, hangovers from the sovereign debt crisis, and the impact of the pandemic-induced recession in four of the most powerful European countries – France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom – will have profound implications... MORE

“SRAD Director’s Corner: Understanding North Korea and Key to Security in East Asia”
August 25, 2022 — In this episode, Colonel George Shatzer focuses on North Korea and the Kim family regime. He reviews Becoming Kim Jong Un: A Former CIA Officer’s Insights into North Korea’s Enigmatic Young Dictator by Jung H. Pak and Rationality in the North Korean Regime: Understanding the Kims’ Strategy of Provocation by David W. Shin and shows how these books might help readers better understand North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-Un and the implications of his actions for US foreign and military policy in the region. The books also provide insights for strategists attempting to plan for security in East Asia... MORE

“Sino-Russian Relations and the War in Ukraine”
August 18, 2022 — Claims that China has taken “Russia’s side” in the Ukrainian War oversimplify Sino-Russian relations. Garcia and Modlin contend Sino-Russian relations are a narrow partnership centered on accelerating the emergence of a multipolar order to reduce American hegemony and illustrate this point by tracing the discursive and empirical foundations of the relationship using primary and secondary materials. Furthermore, they highlight how the war has created challenges and opportunities for China’s other strategic interests, some at the expense of the United States or Russia... MORE

SSI Live 92 – China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Chinese Investment in European Infrastructure
July 29, 2022 — SSI Live 092 – China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Chinese Investment in European Infrastructure – This is the fifth podcast in a short series to launch a recently published multi-author study on China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Beijing’s Investments and Transatlantic Security. In this podcast, Dr. John R. Deni discusses Chinese... MORE

Enabling a More Externally Focused and Operational PLA – 2020 PLA Conference Papers
July 27, 2022 — Although the People’s Liberation Army is not yet a global expeditionary force on par with the US military, the former has nevertheless significantly expanded its ability to operate abroad. Through enhanced technological capabilities, robust relationships with foreign militaries, increased access to overseas military bases and dual-use facilities,... MORE

Enabling a More Externally Focused and Operational PLA – 2020 PLA Conference Papers
US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press

SSI Live 91 – China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Europe’s Evolving Policies Toward China
June 9, 2022 — This is the fourth podcast in a short series to launch a recently published multi-author study on China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Beijing’s Investments and Transatlantic Security. In this podcast, Dr. John R. Deni discusses Europe’s evolving policies toward Chinese economic statecraft. What tools have Europeans relied upon to fend off... MORE

SSI Live 90 – China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Europe’s Evolving Attitude Toward China
June 2, 2022 — SSI Live 090 – China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Europe’s Evolving Attitude Toward China – This is the third podcast in a short series to launch a recently published multi-author study on China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Beijing’s Investments and Transatlantic Security. In this podcast, contributing author Erik Brattberg joins... MORE

SSI Live 89 – China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: China’s Strategy Toward Europe
May 25, 2022 — This is the second podcast in a short series to launch a recently published multi-author study on China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Beijing’s Investments and Transatlantic Security. In this podcast, contributing author Dr. Roger Cliff joins Dr. John R. Deni to discuss China’s strategy toward Europe. What does Beijing seek to get out of its... MORE

China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Beijing’s Investments and Transatlantic Security
May 22, 2022 — Dr. John R. Deni, 2022Given the depth and breadth of the pandemic-induced recession in Europe, private companies in need of capital and governments looking to shed state-owned enterprises may be tempted to sell shares, assets, or outright ownership to investors with liquidity to spare. Of greatest concern is the role that China might play in... MORE

China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Beijing’s Investments and Transatlantic Security

Dr. John R. Deni, 2022
Given the depth and breadth of the pandemic-induced recession in Europe, private companies in need of capital and governments looking to shed state-owned enterprises may be tempted to sell shares, assets, or outright ownership to investors with liquidity to spare. Of greatest concern is the role that China might play in Europe, building Beijing’s soft power, weakening allied geopolitical solidarity, and potentially reprising the role it played in the 2010s, when its investments in Europe expanded dramatically.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/949/

SSI Live 88 – China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: COVID-19’s Economic Impact on Europe
May 19, 2022 — This is the first podcast in a short series to launch a recently published multi-author study on China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Beijing’s Investments and Transatlantic Security. In this podcast, contributing author Dr. Mark Duckenfield joins Dr. John R. Deni to discuss the economic impact of COVID-19 on Europe. How does this crisis... MORE