Recent Publications

Strategic Insights: The Dragon in the Tropics: China’s Military Expansion into the Western Hemisphere
September 30, 2014 — Dr. José de Arimatéia da Cruz A prosperous and stable China will not be a threat to any country. It will only be a positive force for world peace. Vice President Xi Jinping, 2012 Despite the fact that Latin America has been an area of U.S. influence since 1823... MORE

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Strategic Insights: The Ukraine Crises and the Emerging Sino-Russian Political Alliance
September 9, 2014 — Dr. Bin Yu, Ph.D. The first half of 2014 witnessed a notable enhancement of Russian-Chinese relations. Signs of this visible geostrategic shift include high-profile summit meetings, breakthroughs in energy/gas deals, renewed interest in military-technology cooperation,1 more integrated military exercises, and closer diplomatic coordination on... MORE

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A New Type of Great Power Relationship between the United States and China: The Military Dimension
September 3, 2014 — Author: Prof Geoffrey Till View the Executive SummaryThe relative economic and military rise of China is likely to lead a major shift in the world’s strategic architecture. The form that China's new role takes will have a decisive impact on the interests of the United States and its allies and partners in the region. For the outcome to be generally... MORE

Colloquium Brief: The Chinese People’s Liberation Army in 2025
August 27, 2014 — Mr. R. Lincoln Hines Key Insights. Domestic, external, and technological drivers of China's military modernization are examined. Three plausible scenarios for the modernization of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) that result from these drivers are explored. Implications of these futures for regional dynamics, the international system,... MORE

Strategic Implications of the Evolving Shanghai Cooperation Organization
August 6, 2014 — Authors: Dr Andrew Monaghan, Mr Henry Plater-Zyberk View the Executive SummaryThe role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in regional politics and the significance of the organization for U.S. interests are widely misunderstood. The organization is emphatically not a military bloc, and yet engages in joint activities which resemble... MORE

The Growing Complexity of Sino-Indian Ties
June 13, 2014 — Author: Dr Harsh V Pant View the Executive SummaryAccording to most political observers, the global political architecture is undergoing a transformation with power increasingly shifting from the West to the East. The two most populous nations on the earth, China and India, are on their way to becoming economic powerhouses and are shedding their... MORE

A Few Questions About China’s Air Defense Identification Zone and Its Aftermath
March 22, 2014 — China declared an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea on November 23, 2013 (See Figure 1). This move set off a security and political tsunami in the Western Pacific. The United States immediately denounced China’s sudden and unilateral act. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Australia, the European Union, and many... MORE

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army and Information Warfare
March 5, 2014 — Author: Dr Larry M WortzelView the Executive Summary On November 23, 2013, the Chinese government announced plans to establish a new air defense intercept zone which will include the Diaoyu or Senkaku Islands, sovereignty over which is disputed by Japan, China, and Taiwan. Due to complaints of cyber penetrations attributed to the Chinese People’s... MORE

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Africa’s Booming Oil and Natural Gas Exploration and Production: National Security Implications for the United States and China
December 30, 2013 — Author: Mr David E BrownView the Executive Summary Two key long-term energy trends are shifting the strategic balance between the United States and China, the world’s superpower rivals in the 21st century: first, a domestic boom in U.S. shale oil and gas is dramatically boosting America’s energy security; second, the frenetic and successful search... MORE

Washington’s Debt, Beijing’s Bubble, and the Discussion No One is Having
November 15, 2013 — Mr. Ian ButtonWashington, we have a problem. The economy is staggering its way out of the global financial crisis and none too quickly. Across the nation, unemployment rates in excess of 7 percent continue to pinch the pockets of middle-class Americans. The much-coveted AAA credit rating that once blessed Washington’s financial decisions has since... MORE

Central Asia After 2014
November 3, 2013 — Author: Dr Stephen J Blank View the Executive SummaryAs NATO and the United States proceed to withdraw their forces from Afghanistan, the inherent and preexisting geopolitical, security, and strategic challenges in Central Asia become ever more apparent. The rivalry among the great powers: the United States, China, Russia, India, and others to a... MORE

Op-Ed: Doubts on China’s “New Model for Great Power Relationship”
October 3, 2013 — Dr. David LaiA buzz phrase, “China’s new model for great power relationship (read U.S.-China relationship),” is making rounds in China’s diplomatic, defense, and policy analysis circles of late. Chinese official statements, policy think-tank discussions, and publications on U.S.-China relations are all heavily loaded with this topic. This fanfare... MORE