Recent Publications

Russia's the Enemy
April 21, 2025 — The United States has never been directly involved in the war in Ukraine. U.S. troops weren’t sent there to fight for Ukraine against the Russian invaders, and both sides of our political spectrum seemed intent on keeping it that way. Russia remained in American foreign policy a challenge to be managed and a competitor, even an adversary.Through... MORE

Russia, Ukraine, and Collective Defence
April 21, 2025 — The ability to adapt to a constantly evolving security environment has been critical to the success of NATO, yet this is being tested anew as the Alliance faces a second term of Donald Trump in the White House and re-embraces collective defence in light of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Despite notable solidarity and unity in the immediate aftermath of... MORE

Russia, Ukraine, and Collective Defence | Dr. John R. Deni & Anca Agachi

Does NATO Still Matter?
April 21, 2025 — The alliance has created economic growth, peace and stability. America’s relationship with Europe is undergoing a potentially profound reexamination. Whether and how the transatlantic bond — especially America’s commitment to NATO — will endure has become an open question.To some degree, reassessment makes sense. The NATO agreement was penned over... MORE

Does NATO still matter? | Dr. John R. Deni

Don’t waste this crisis, Europe: consolidate your defense industry
April 15, 2025 — Turn your excess national defense champions into continental ones.Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and questions about the American commitment to NATO have cast a spotlight on European efforts to safeguard security on the continent. But today, the major hurdles confronting Europe are no longer defense spending and industrial capacity. At both the... MORE

Don’t waste this crisis, Europe: consolidate your defense industry | Dr. John R. Deni

A Drawdown of US Forces in Europe Is All but Certain
April 15, 2025 — Here’s how the Pentagon can rebalance its approach to the continent without sacrificing US interests.The Trump administration has only just begun to fill its ranks with the political appointees who will flesh out the future of US defense policy. One item sure to be on their agenda is a review of US military deployments around the world, known in... MORE

A Drawdown of U.S. Forces in Europe Is All but Certain | John R. Deni

The Impact of China on US Interests in Latin America
February 21, 2025 — President Trump’s statements regarding the influence of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) over the Panama Canal, and the focus on the issue as part of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s February 2025 trip to Central America and the Caribbean have focused U.S. and global attention on the strategic importance of the challenges posed by PRC in the... MORE

The Impact of China on US Interests in Latin America | R. Evan Ellis

Ecuador’s Security Challenges and the Government’s Response
February 11, 2025 — In January 2024, following a series of dramatic public security incidents, including the escape from prison of Adolfo Macias (“Fito”), the leader of the violent Ecuadoran gang Los Choneros, and the takeover of an Ecuadoran Television station during a live broadcast, the newly elected government of Daniel Noboa declared a “state of internal warfare”... MORE

Ecuador’s Security Challenges and the Government’s Response | R. Evan Ellis

8 Simmering Threats You Shouldn’t Ignore in 2025: A Plausibly Deniable Russian War Against Europe
January 2, 2025 — The sabotage of undersea communications cables in the Baltic Sea by the cargo ship Yi Peng 3 is only the latest in a series of asymmetric attacks against Western interests and infrastructure that appear to be connected in one way or another to Moscow. The Kremlin has clearly ratcheted up efforts to intimidate and coerce Europe, hoping to... MORE

A Plausibly Deniable Russian War Against Europe | John R. Deni, in Foreign Policy

2025: Possibilities for the Year to Come
December 27, 2024 — 2025 is likely to be a transformative year for Latin America and the Caribbean, and its relationships with the United States, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and other actors. Although it is impossible to predict with certainty the complex interaction among interdependent events and factors, it is important to recognize the substantial number... MORE

2025: Possibilities for the Year to Come | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

Ecuador’s Evolving Engagement with the PRC
December 24, 2024 — Under the current Ecuadorian government of Daniel Noboa, major infrastructure, financial, and security cooperation with China has been restrained, but political expediency may change that.In September 2024, Ecuadorian Economy Minister Juan Carlos Vega Malo traveled to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to discuss a range of commercial and... MORE

Ecuador’s Evolving Engagement with the PRC | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

It’s (Still) More Expensive to Rotate Military Forces Overseas than Base Them There
December 19, 2024 — In mid-2020, then-President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to withdraw roughly one-third of US forces from Germany, reportedly because of policy differences with Berlin. Given how long it would take to implement such a significant change in overseas posture, the clock ran out on his term before the Department of Defense could complete it. With... MORE

It’s (still) more expensive to rotate military forces overseas than base them there | By John R. Deni

Security Implications for the United States from Iranian and Hezbollah Activities in Latin America
December 18, 2024 — This presentation will examine engagement with Latin America by Iran, its government agents, and surrogate groups such as Hezbollah, including terrorist finance, terrorism, and other activities and their evolution in recent years. It will address the interaction of that presence with the risk of escalating the conflict in the Middle East and weak... MORE

Security Implications for the United States from Iranian and Hezbollah Activities in Latin America | R. Evan Ellis
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