Recent Publications

Don’t Promise Ukraine NATO Membership Now
May 19, 2023 — Bringing Kyiv into the alliance soon could harden Russia’s resolve, frustrate potential peace efforts, and play into the Kremlin’s propaganda.John R. DeniIn two months, NATO leaders will gather in Vilnius for their annual summit, and leading the agenda will be the West’s ongoing support for Ukraine today and in the years ahead. Prominent experts... MORE

Don’t Promise Ukraine NATO Membership Now
John R. Deni
Bringing Kyiv into the alliance soon could harden Russia’s resolve, frustrate potential peace efforts, and play into the Kremlin’s propaganda.

Biden’s National Security Strategy: A New Era in Eurasia
October 28, 2022 — Robert E. Hamilton, October 26, 2022, the Foreign Policy Research Institute Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused a reorientation of US national security policy toward “constraining” Russia While China remains the long-term US focus, the new National Security Strategy (NSS) sees Russia as a “profoundly dangerous” state that poses an “immediate... MORE

Putin is Mobilizing. Germany and France are Unlikely to Step Up.
September 26, 2022 — Dr. John R. Deni, Sept 26 2022 in PoliticoJohn R. Deni is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. He’s the author of “Coalition of the unWilling and unAble.”Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent decision to partially mobilize Russian... MORE

Russian President Putin (from Wikipedia)

Sweden and Finland are on their way to NATO membership. Here’s what needs to happen next.
August 4, 2022 — Dr. John R. Deni, 2022 in Atlatic Council Sweden and Finland have just cleared a big hurdle on their path to NATO membership with the US Senate’s overwhelming vote to welcome them into the Alliance. While several other allies still need to ratify the expansion, Finnish and Swedish membership in NATO is now not a question of whether but when.Even... MORE

Coalition of the unWilling and unAble
June 9, 2022 — European Realignment and the Future of American GeopoliticsDr. John R. Deni, 2022, forthcoming With the Defense Department weighing whether and how to change the U.S. military footprint overseas, it’s time to make the American military presence in the Baltic states durable. Maintaining merely periodic American boots on the ground, sometimes there... MORE

Coalition of the unWilling and unAble by John R. Deni

Yes, Russia Might Invade a NATO Country. Here’s How the Alliance Should Prepare.
June 1, 2022 — Dr. John R. Deni, 2022 in PoliticoRussia’s invasion has been a wake-up call: It’s time for NATO allies to get back to basics.Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a careful balancing act on the part of NATO allies, who are eager to see Russia fail but also unwilling to jump into the war directly. This reflects the same challenge that has... MORE

Yes, the United States Should Weaken Russia
May 27, 2022 — The old approach of outreach and inclusion has failed. In the wake of Russia’s latest invasion, Washington must seek to erode Moscow’s power.Dr. John R. Deni, 2022 in Foreign Policy Following a recent visit to Kyiv, Ukraine, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the United States wanted “to see Russia... MORE

NATO Must Prepare to Defend Its Weakest Point—the Suwalki Corridor
May 27, 2022 — On the Polish-Lithuanian border, the West must respond to Russia’s actual capabilities rather than making assumptions about its intent.Dr. John R. Deni, 2022 in Foreign Policy As the Biden administration monitors Moscow’s reaction to dramatic U.S. and allied increases in assistance to Ukraine as well as the punishing Western economic and financial... MORE

Toward a New Normal in Transatlantic Collective Defense
May 25, 2022 — With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in its third month, it is already possible to draw some important lessons from the most serious security crisis in Europe in decades.Dr. John R. Deni, 2022 in German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) It has fundamentally altered security on the continent, prompting a reappraisal of where and how NATO allies... MORE

Cooperation, Competition, and Compartmentalization
April 8, 2021 — Russian-Turkish Relations and Their Implications for the West Robert E. Hamilton, 2021, the Foreign Policy Research InstituteThe relationship between the Russian Federation and Republic of Turkey is one of the most important bilateral relationships in Eurasia today. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) original adversary and one of its... MORE

Cooperation, Competition, and Compartmentalization:
Russian-Turkish Relations and Their Implications for the West

Natural Gas in the Black Sea: Strengthening Cooperation and Balancing Power
May 27, 2020 — Robert E. Hamilton, Anna Mikulska, 2020Heterogenous, varied, diverse – few other words can concisely describe the Black Sea region. Beyond their obvious geographical proximity, there is little that unites these countries. Wedged between different continents, religions, and cultures, they also vary in size, economic prowess, and geopolitical... MORE

Cover image for Natural Gas in the Black Sea: Strengthening Cooperation and Balancing Power