Recent Publications

China-Latin America Space Cooperation: An Overview
February 16, 2024 — As China has increased its political and economic cooperation with Latin America, it has also expanded its space engagement with the region.In September 2023, during a visit to China, Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro announced an agreement in which China would transport Venezuelans to a research base it plans to build on the moon, the... MORE

China-Latin America Space Cooperation: An Overview
By R. Evan Ellis

As China has increased its political and economic cooperation with Latin America, it has also expanded its space engagement with the region.
https://thediplomat.com/2024/02/china-latin-america-space-cooperation-an-overview/

PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights
February 8, 2024 — PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights R. Evan Ellis Over the past twenty years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has expanded its political, institutional, economic, and other forms of engagement with all regions of the world. Not surprisingly, because engagement in Latin America and the... MORE

PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights | R. Evan Ellis

Argentina's Milei Returns Idea of Limited Gov't to Global Stage In Latin America
February 6, 2024 — The nine most terrifying words in the English language are:I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help.— Ronald Reagan - Aug. 12, 1986Most Argentines did not elect eclectic libertarian Javier Milei in November 2023 because they understood his economic philosophy.Rather, they were exasperated by the economic disaster of the leftist Peronist... MORE

Argentina's Milei Returns Idea of Limited Gov't to Global Stage In Latin America | R. Evan Ellis

Strategic Implications of the Deterioration of the Rules-Based International Order
February 2, 2024 — The multiple crises currently playing out in Ukraine, the Middle East, the Taiwan straits, and even Guyana’s Essequibo region, reflect a deterioration of the rules-based international order that has served as the foundation for economic growth, technological progress, and the limitation of interstate conflict since the end of the Second World War... MORE

Strategic Implications of the Deterioration of the Rules-Based International Order | R. Evan Ellis

Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn’t Falling
January 22, 2024 — The takeover of Ecuadorian TV station TC in the middle of a widely watched news broadcast, Ecuadoran President Daniel Noboa’s declaration of a state of internal armed conflict, and his deployment of the military as part of the response dominated international news and captured the attention of Washington policymakers last week. Ecuador’s homicide... MORE

Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn’t Falling | R. Evan Ellis
Background image from United Press International via Global Americans Article (https://theglobalamericans.org/perspectives-on-ecuador-the-sky-isnt-falling)

Deterring War without Threatening War: Rehabilitating the West’s Risk-averse Approach to Deterrence
January 19, 2024 — Shortly after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, defense scholars began asking why the West’s approach to deterrence had failed. Some critics claimed the West never had an official deterrence policy regarding Ukraine, or at least not a consistent one; others maintained the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty... MORE

Deterring War without Threatening War: Rehabilitating the West’s Risk-averse Approach to Deterrence - Military Strategy Magazine
Antulio J. Echevarria II
https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/deterring-war-without-threatening-war-rehabilitating-the-wests-risk-averse-approach-to-deterrence/

China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua
December 21, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | The October 2023 announcement of multiple major infrastructure projects to be performed by Chinese companies in Nicaragua highlights China’s deepening strategic position in that country, with significant implications for the United States and the region. Nicaragua’s December 2021 recognition of China and its corresponding... MORE

China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua – R. Evan Ellis in The Diplomat
https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/chinas-growing-strategic-position-in-nicaragua/

Is the Baltic Sea a NATO Lake?
December 20, 2023 — John R. Deni | This article is part of the Baltic Sea Region Security Initiative developed by the Carnegie Endowment’s Europe Program. | With the addition of Finland and soon Sweden into the NATO fold, nearly all of the Baltic Sea littoral states will be alliance members. This has prompted some observers to label the Baltic Sea a kind of “NATO... MORE

Is the Baltic Sea a NATO Lake?
John R. Deni

Alarm Grows Over Weakened Militaries and Empty Arsenals in Europe
December 12, 2023 — Budget cuts and an eroded weapons industry have hollowed out armed services; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals risks John R. Deni, as quoted in a recent article in the Wall Street Journal: “People may say the Russians have taken it on the chin, and we don’t need to worry. That’s a valid point, but it ignores residual Russian strength,” said John... MORE

Budget cuts and an eroded weapons industry have hollowed out armed services; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals risks

“People may say the Russians have taken it on the chin, and we don’t need to worry. That’s a valid point, but it ignores residual Russian strength,” said John Deni, a professor at the U.S. Army War College and an expert on European militaries. “If the Russians present us with a mass problem in Europe, the challenge is, can technology and advanced capabilities do it? And there we see some challenges.”

Article quote and background image from:
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/alarm-nato-weak-military-empty-arsenals-europe-a72b23f4

The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now
December 8, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | In November 2013, then-Secretary of State John Kerry declared, to thunderous applause, that “the era of the Monroe Doctrine is over.” Flash forward to 2019 and John Bolton, the national security adviser at the time, proclaimed that the Monroe Doctrine was alive and well. Within six years, high-level administration officials had... MORE

The Monroe Doctrine, Then and Now - Evan Ellis - The Dispatch
Background image from article: https://thedispatch.com/article/the-monroe-doctrine-then-and-now/

Would Venezuela Really Invade Essequibo?
December 4, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | In the context of unfolding global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the dangers of an increasingly aggressive yet economically fragile People’s Republic of China (PRC), Venezuela’s provocative referendum on its claim to two thirds of the territory of neighboring Guyana has received understandably little attention in... MORE

By R. Evan Ellis
In the context of unfolding global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the dangers of an increasingly aggressive yet economically fragile People’s Republic of China (PRC), Venezuela’s provocative referendum on its claim to two thirds of the territory of neighboring Guyana has received understandably little attention in Washington, D.C.
Original background image from article: https://theglobalamericans.org/2023/11/would-venezuela-really-invade-essequibo/

How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
December 4, 2023 — John R. Deni for POLITICO | It’s time to tear up the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. John R. Deni is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. He’s the author of “NATO and Article 5.” The views expressed are his own.Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is... MORE

How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
by John R. Deni
Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is just months away, and allies are eagerly preparing the agenda.

This time around, several member countries are keen to avoid the kind of divisive discussions over Ukraine’s path to membership that publicly played out at last year’s summit in Vilnius — and none more so than hosting nation the United States.

Background image from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_%E2%80%93_NATO_Commission_chaired_by_Petro_Poroshenko_(2017-07-10)_48.jpg