Recent Publications

Engagement with China has had a Multifaceted Impact on Latin American Democracy
July 15, 2024 — While Beijing may not deliberately promote authoritarian regimes in Latin America, implicit risks to the dynamics of democracies arise out of engagement with China.In its public discourse, unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the People’s Republic of China has avoided directly challenging Western-style democracy as a system of governance... MORE

Engagement with China has had a Multifaceted Impact on Latin American Democracy
R. Evan Ellis

NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial
July 8, 2024 — Taking the necessary steps to fully operationalize deterrence by denial is critical — especially before a possible change in America’s relationship with NATO.Recent revelations that the Chinese government has been substantially aiding Russia’s war effort in Ukraine — selling the country all it needs to build its own armaments, including microchips... MORE

NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial
John R. Deni
Published by POLITICO

Paraguay’s Security Challenges and the Government Response
July 8, 2024 — The land-locked South American country of Paraguay receives little attention in Washington D.C. relative to its strategic importance for the region and the U.S. It is larger than Germany, and like Germany, its impact, and the nature of its challenges, begin with its central location in the continent. That centrality gives Paraguay enormous,... MORE

Slide for Paraguay’s Security Challenges and the Government Response

Russian Warships, Venezuelan Elections, and a Fabricated Crisis with Guyana in the Caribbean?
June 17, 2024 — The deployment of Russian warships to the Caribbean is Kabuki theater. For 15 years, a Russia whose international power projection capabilities have deteriorated significantly since the end of the Cold War has periodically sent limited, yet still threatening forces to the U.S. near abroad, in response to U.S. activities in what it regards as its... MORE

Russian Warships, Venezuelan Elections, and a Fabricated Crisis with Guyana in the Caribbean?

R. Evan Ellis

Playing Both Sides of the U.S.-Chinese Rivalry
May 29, 2024 — Why Countries Get External Security from Washington—and Internal Security from BeijingOn a visit to Budapest in late February, China’s minister of public security, Wang Xiaohong, secured a face-to-face meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to establish a new bilateral security arrangement. China and Hungary agreed to cooperate on law... MORE

Slide for Playing Both Sides of the U.S. Chinese Rivalry

The New NATO Force Model: Ready For Launch?
May 28, 2024 — Allies are in the process of a dramatic change to the Alliance’s force structure, which will see the NATO Response Force (NRF) replaced with a three tiered structure of Allied forces, to include an Allied Reaction Force (ARF), all of which is designed to better defend and deter. This new NATO Force Model faces a variety of challenges. To avoid the... MORE

The New NATO Force Model: Ready For Launch? | John R. Deni
Published by NATO

China-Argentina Space Engagement
May 23, 2024 — This work examines China - Argentine Space Collaboration, with a focus on the PRC Operated Deep Space Radar Facility in Neuquén. It argues that in interest of national development, and in the context of hopes for benefit from Argentina’s broader relationship with China, in an era of less pronounced strategic competition between the PRC and the... MORE

China-Argentina Space Engagement | R. Evan Ellis
Background photo of China and Argentina’s deep space ground station antennas from Wikimedia, April, 2022 (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Estaci%C3%B3n_de_Espacio_Profundo_de_la_CLTC-CONAE-NEUQUEN_en_abril_2022_02.jpg)

Argentina: Security Challenges and the Government Response
May 13, 2024 — Summary: In addition to Argentina’s profound economic crisis, the nation faces serious security challenges. These include use of the country as a drug transit zone, including cocaine from Bolivia and Peru bound for Europe and marijuana from Paraguay. Such criminal activities have caused violent struggles between groups for transport routes in... MORE

In addition to Argentina’s profound economic crisis, the nation faces serious security challenges. These include use of the country as a drug transit zone, including cocaine from Bolivia and Peru bound for Europe and marijuana from Paraguay.

Paraguay: A Promising Government Navigating a Perilous Path
May 1, 2024 — The greatest gift that Cartes can give the country and President Peña is to empower Peña to take the real and symbolic steps to frontally tackle corruption. Paraguay, a land-locked country at the heart of South America, is strategically important for the region, the U.S., and even the Indopacific, in ways that exceed the attention given to it by Washington D.C. Larger than Germany, Paraguay’s geographic centrality means that the country’s commercial and political dynamics... ... MORE

Paraguay: A Promising Government Navigating a Perilous Path
The greatest gift that Cartes can give the country and President Peña is to empower Peña to take the real and symbolic steps to frontally tackle corruption.
https://globalamericans.org/paraguay-a-promising-government-navigating-a-perilous-path/

Now It’s Up to Europe to Take the Lead in Ukraine
April 25, 2024 — Continental security can no longer be outsourced to the U.S., which may soon have other wars to fight.By John R. Deni and Lisa A. AronssonUkrainians are breathing a sigh of relief. Within days, desperately needed ammunition and military equipment should begin flowing to Kyiv’s beleaguered forces. But even the $60 billion approved by Congress won’t... MORE

Continental security can no longer be outsourced to the U.S., which may soon have other wars to fight.
By John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson

Risk, Rumors, and Reprisals: The Imagined Side of Professional Writing
April 12, 2024 — With the Army’s renewed emphasis on professional writing, a disturbing narrative will likely resurface that publishing is dangerous to an author’s career. While many have articulated the benefits of joining the professional discourse, myself included, prospective authors may imagine backlash from a poorly received article. To take a public stance... MORE

Risk, Rumors, and Reprisals: The Imagined Side of Professional Writing
https://www.hardingproject.com/p/risk-rumors-and-reprisals-the-imagined

75 years in, NATO Remains As Vital As Ever to American Life
April 4, 2024 — As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and insufficiently focused on America’s main adversary, China.These critiques are to some degree understandable. NATO’s age obscures the... MORE

As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and insufficiently focused on America’s main adversary, China.
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4572959-75-years-in-nato-remains-as-vital-as-ever-to-american-life/