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Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termination | C. Anthony Pfaff
Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termination
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Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’ | Jorh R. Deni
Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’
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The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24
The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24
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Ukraine has invaded Russia, what happens next? Dr. John R. Deni
Ukraine has invaded Russia, what happens next?
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Satellites in the Russia-Ukraine War by Ron Gurantz
Satellites in the Russia-Ukraine War 
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The NATO Strategic Concept on its Seventy-Fifth Anniversary
The NATO Strategic Concept on Its Seventy-Fifth Anniversary
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NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial John R. Deni Published by POLITICO
NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial
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New publication: A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force
A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force
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From the Archives
Deterring War without Threatening War: Rehabilitating the West’s Risk-averse Approach to Deterrence
Antulio J. Echevarria II - US Army War College Shortly after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, defense scholars began asking why the West’s approach to deterrence had failed. Some critics claimed the West never had an official deterrence policy regarding Ukraine, or at least not a consistent one; others maintained the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) took military force “off the table” too soon, relying too much on the coercive power of sanctions.[i] In truth, the West had both a deterrence policy and a supporting deterrence strategy vis-à-vis Ukraine. US President Joseph Biden and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reinforced the policy and the strategy by repeatedly warning Russia’s President Vladimir Putin not to attack Ukraine. However, the West’s approach was too risk-averse to succeed against a major power armed with military capabilities comparable to NATO’s own. It attempted to deter war without threatening war, which in turn rendered it vulnerable to Russian deterrence. By attempting to minimize the risk of a major war, the West made the right call, even though it resulted in the failure of its own deterrence measures. The “value of the political object,” to borrow Clausewitz’s expression, did not warrant risking a potentially ruinous war.[ii] The question now is whether it is possible to rehabilitate the West’s approach to deterrence without requiring NATO to act as irresponsibly with military force as did Putin’s Russia. https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/deterring-war-without-threatening-war-rehabilitating-the-wests-risk-averse-approach-to-deterrence/
Jan. 19, 2024 - Shortly after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, defense scholars began asking why the West’s approach to deterrence had failed. Some critics claimed the West never had an official deterrence policy...
Is the Baltic Sea a NATO Lake? 
Is the Baltic Sea a NATO Lake? John R. Deni This article is part of the Baltic Sea Region Security Initiative developed by the Carnegie Endowment’s Europe Program. With the addition of Finland and soon Sweden into the NATO fold, nearly all of the Baltic Sea littoral states will be alliance members. This has prompted some observers to label the Baltic Sea a kind of “NATO lake.” This is unfortunate framing that implies the Baltic is NATO’s alone, that the Western alliance has little to worry about from a security perspective, or that the littoral states can lean back and rest in the warm embrace of Article 5 and the United States’ commitment to their security. This, of course, does not reflect reality, underlined recently by suspicious damage to the Baltic Connector gas pipeline and telecom links. The fact remains that, today, the Baltic littoral states face a number of significant threats that membership in NATO alone will not ameliorate. Instead, the members of the alliance on the Baltic Sea—Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Germany, and Denmark, as well as aspirant Sweden—and the United States confront a dynamic regional security picture that will require further refinement of capabilities and increased capacity as well as more considered efforts in collective cooperation through both NATO and the European Union.
Dec. 20, 2023 - John R. Deni | This article is part of the Baltic Sea Region Security Initiative developed by the Carnegie Endowment’s Europe Program. | With the addition of Finland and soon Sweden into the NATO fold, nearly all of the...
Alarm Grows Over Weakened Militaries and Empty Arsenals in Europe
Budget cuts and an eroded weapons industry have hollowed out armed services; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals risks “People may say the Russians have taken it on the chin, and we don’t need to worry. That’s a valid point, but it ignores residual Russian strength,” said John Deni, a professor at the U.S. Army War College and an expert on European militaries. “If the Russians present us with a mass problem in Europe, the challenge is, can technology and advanced capabilities do it? And there we see some challenges.” Article quote and background image from: https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/alarm-nato-weak-military-empty-arsenals-europe-a72b23f4
Dec. 12, 2023 - Budget cuts and an eroded weapons industry have hollowed out armed services; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals risks John R. Deni, as quoted in a recent article in the Wall Street Journal: “People may say the Russians have...
How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit by John R. Deni Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is just months away, and allies are eagerly preparing the agenda. This time around, several member countries are keen to avoid the kind of divisive discussions over Ukraine’s path to membership that publicly played out at last year’s summit in Vilnius — and none more so than hosting nation the United States. Background image from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_%E2%80%93_NATO_Commission_chaired_by_Petro_Poroshenko_(2017-07-10)_48.jpg
Dec. 4, 2023 - John R. Deni for POLITICO | It’s time to tear up the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act.  John R. Deni is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. He’s the author of “NATO and Article 5.”...
Expert Analysis on Latest Attacks in Ukraine
Expert Analysis on Latest Attacks in Ukraine US Army War College | Strategic Studies Institute Military expert John Deni talks to CNN's Laila Harrak about Russian attacks on civilians, and the question of U.S. aid. Expert analysis on latest attacks in Ukraine | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/07/exp-ukraine-laila-guest-fst-100702aseg1.cnn) CNN Host Laila Guest interviews John R. Deni on the current situation in Ukraine.  Photo is a screenshot of the CNN interview.
Oct. 6, 2023 - John R. Deni | Military expert John Deni talks to CNN's Laila Harrak about Russian attacks on civilians, and the question of U.S. aid.Watch the video here: Expert analysis on latest attacks in Ukraine | CNN...
NATO’s Defense Demands Eastern Front Improvements
NATO’s Defense Demands Eastern Front Improvements
July 20, 2023 - John R. Deni The recent summit largely avoided urgent questions about the mismatch between available forces and the Russian threat. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s rather impolitic reaction to the news that his...
NATO Vilnius Summit could have been historic. Instead, it mostly kicked the can down the road.
NATO Vilnius Summit could have been historic. Instead, it mostly kicked the can down the road. John R. Deni
July 14, 2023 - John R. Deni argues that at the NATO Summit, “there was little significant movement on several key issues, leaving much on the table for the alliance’s 75th birthday summit next year in Washington, DC.” With the Vilnius...
Debate continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join NATO
Debate continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join NATO Podcast appearance. John R. Deni As leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, meet at the annual summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, the conversation continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join the alliance and if so, when. Here & Now‘s Celeste Headlee speaks with John Deni, research professor at the U.S. Army War College and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
July 10, 2023 - Podcast appearance. John R. Deni As leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, meet at the annual summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, the conversation continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join the alliance...
We don’t really know which NATO allies are pulling their weight.
We don’t really know which NATO allies are pulling their weight. John R. Deni The Defense Investment Pledge agreed to by NATO allies in 2014 is reaching its decade-long finish line. The Alliance’s own data indicate that not all allies will cross that line, as many still spend less than the equivalent of 2 percent of their gross domestic products on defense and several still devote less than 20 percent of their defense budgets to acquisition and related research and development. Nonetheless, some allies like the United States are advocating to increase the 2 percent target. This is sure to run into resistance. How can the United States and like-minded allies successfully negotiate higher targets? They might start by agreeing to portray NATO burden- and risk-sharing more accurately. Although some argue that inputs like defense spending tell us a lot about outputs like contributions to Alliance operations, recently available data indicate this is not necessarily the case: New statistical analysis shows that whether or not a country has met the 2 percent spending target doesn’t tell us whether or not they’re contributing equally to the Alliance’s mission. If burden- and risk-sharing could be portrayed more accurately, those opposed to increasing the input targets might be more willing to reconsider. Even if they do not, improving how NATO depicts burden- and risk-sharing would benefit lawmakers, analysts, academics, and the public. Recommendations on how to achieve this follow the statistical analysis. Continue reading the article https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/natos-next-burden-sharing-agreement/
July 10, 2023 - Here’s how to fix that. John R. Deni  The Defense Investment Pledge agreed to by NATO allies in 2014 is reaching its decade-long finish line. The Alliance’s own data indicate that not all allies will cross that line, as many...
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