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A Plausibly Deniable Russian War Against Europe | John R. Deni, in Foreign Policy
8 Simmering Threats You Shouldn’t Ignore in 2025: A Plausibly Deniable Russian War Against Europe
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It’s (still) more expensive to rotate military forces overseas than base them there | By John R. Deni
It’s (Still) More Expensive to Rotate Military Forces Overseas than Base Them There
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Will Assad’s defeat be Putin’s Waterloo? | John R. Deni
Will Assad’s Defeat be Putin’s Waterloo?
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Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine | Ron Gurantz
Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine
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Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termination | C. Anthony Pfaff
Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termination
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Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’ | Jorh R. Deni
Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’
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The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24
The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24
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From the Archives
Ukraine has invaded Russia, what happens next?
Ukraine has invaded Russia, what happens next? Dr. John R. Deni Background image of the roadsign at the semi-destroyed entry-exit checkpoint ‘Sudzha’ on the Ukraine-Russia border from ABC.net.au (https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/saturdayextra/ukraine-kursk/104260482)
Aug. 26, 2024 - Ukraine shocked Russia and its allies by launching a surprise attack on the Kursk region and has now seized over 1200 square kilometres of enemy territory. Will this operation prove pivotal for the war or could it turn into a...
Satellites in the Russia-Ukraine War 
Satellites in the Russia-Ukraine War Ron Gurantz Satellites and counterspace systems have shown themselves to be important parts of modern warfare in the Russia-Ukraine War but have also been subject to various restrictions to prevent escalation. This monograph examines the role of satellites and counterspace systems in the Russia-Ukraine War’s high-technology warfare and the effects of satellite proliferation and commercialization on the conduct of the war. It also analyzes the restrictions under which space-based capabilities have been operating and the implications of these limits for future conflicts—a subject that has received little attention. Relying on an exhaustive study of open-source material and the application of limited-war theory to the case of the Russia-Ukraine War, this monograph will help officials and strategists better understand the roles satellites are likely to play in future conflicts and the limits under which states will operate them as governments seek to gain military advantage and avoid escalation. KEYWORDS space, counterspace, satellites, Russia-Ukraine War, limited war, escalation Background and cover image of AI-generated satellite over Earth from Freepik (https://www.freepik.com/free-photo/spacecraft-orbiting-planet-earth-global-communications-generated-by-ai_41438906.htm)
Aug. 21, 2024 - adetail.news .article-body { max-width: 90% !important; }Satellites and counterspace systems have shown themselves to be important parts of modern warfare in the Russia-Ukraine War but have also been subject to various...
The NATO Strategic Concept on Its Seventy-Fifth Anniversary
The NATO Strategic Concept on its Seventy-Fifth Anniversary Dr. John R. Deni Dr. Sten Rynning https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/July-August-2024/NATO-Strategic-Concept/ The 2022 Brussels summit in Belgium, a meeting of the heads of state and government of NATO, took place 24 March 2022 at NATO’s headquarters just one month after the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Following the summit, leaders released a joint statement condemning the attacks on civilians and calling on Russia to immediately suspend military operations in Ukraine. (Photo courtesy of NATO)
Aug. 14, 2024 - | Published by Army University Press Military Review, July-August 2024 |  The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will celebrate its seventy-fifth anniversary at its 2024 summit in Washington, D.C. NATO’s age tells a...
NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial
NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial John R. Deni Published by POLITICO https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-us-army-chinese-government-defense-war-europe-allies-cold-war-russia-poland/
July 8, 2024 - Taking the necessary steps to fully operationalize deterrence by denial is critical — especially before a possible change in America’s relationship with NATO.Recent revelations that the Chinese government has been...
A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force
John A. Nagl, Project Director Katie Crombe, Chief of Staff The Russia-Ukraine War represents a strategic inflection point that provides valuable insights into the future of war and how the US military must adapt. This book identifies the US Army’s current weaknesses and the lessons it must learn from the Russia-Ukraine War as the service reexamines all aspects of its composition to prepare for future conflicts. Keywords: Russia-Ukraine War, multidomain operations, convergence, combined arms, reconstitution, large-scale combat operations, sustainment, security assistance, personnel depth, mission command, allies, UAS, AI, OSSINT, command post, strategic inflection point Ukraine flag painting used on cover and background image from Freepik (https://www.freepik.com/free-vector/hand-painted-watercolour-ukraine-flag-background_25033790.htm) and the tank from Unsplash (https://unsplash.com/photos/a-large-rusted-out-tank-sitting-on-the-side-of-a-road-SxFGG1cIOw0)
June 27, 2024 - The Russia-Ukraine War represents a strategic inflection point that provides valuable insights into the future of war and how the US military must adapt. This book identifies the lessons the US Army must learn from the...
The New NATO Force Model: Ready For Launch?
The New NATO Force Model: Ready For Launch? | John R. Deni Published by NATO NATO Allies are in the process of a dramatic change to the Alliance’s force structure, which will see the NATO Response Force (NRF) replaced with a three tiered structure of Allied forces, to include an Allied Reaction Force (ARF), all of which is designed to better defend and deter. This new NATO Force Model faces a variety of challenges. To avoid the potential pitfalls and ensure the Alliance fulfils its own vision, NATO and its member nations ought to consider an array of mitigating steps, such as using snap exercises and inspection visits to ensure forces are indeed manned, trained and equipped, and emphasizing mass and capacity in Allied acquisition plans and capability targets. https://www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=1937# Background image composite of pages from the publication NATO (https://www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=1937#)
May 28, 2024 - Allies are in the process of a dramatic change to the Alliance’s force structure, which will see the NATO Response Force (NRF) replaced with a three tiered structure of Allied forces, to include an Allied Reaction Force...
Now It’s Up to Europe to Take the Lead in Ukraine
Continental security can no longer be outsourced to the U.S., which may soon have other wars to fight. By John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson Ukrainians are breathing a sigh of relief. Within days, desperately needed ammunition and military equipment should begin flowing to Kyiv’s beleaguered forces. But even the $60 billion approved by Congress won’t be enough to enable a Ukrainian victory. If Ukraine loses, the West will be faced with a much more dangerous Russia and a highly unstable security environment, one that could demand far more in Western blood and treasure. With Washington’s latest tranche of funding, Ukraine should survive through 2024. But while Europeans have done a lot, they need to pick up the slack and do more for Ukraine militarily. https://www.wsj.com/articles/now-its-up-to-europe-to-take-the-lead-in-ukraine-russia-war-13a7daff Background image by Mathias Reding from Pexels (https://www.pexels.com/photo/people-on-protest-against-war-in-ukraine-11421247/)
April 25, 2024 - Continental security can no longer be outsourced to the U.S., which may soon have other wars to fight.By John R. Deni and Lisa A. AronssonUkrainians are breathing a sigh of relief. Within days, desperately needed ammunition...
Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: An American Perspective
In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems promise enhanced threat detection, terrorist groups are exploiting these tools for recruitment and attacks. The future is concerning as AI becomes more widespread and autonomous systems and augmented reality redefine society.
April 18, 2024 - In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI)...
75 years in, NATO Remains As Vital As Ever to American Life
As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and insufficiently focused on America’s main adversary, China. These critiques are to some degree understandable. NATO’s age obscures the reasons why the United States broke with historical tradition in 1949 and entangled itself in an alliance with other countries. As a result, today some Americans, and even some Europeans, take NATO for granted. Background image via article by by Beata Zawrzel (https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4572959-75-years-in-nato-remains-as-vital-as-ever-to-american-life/)
April 4, 2024 - As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and...
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