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A Plausibly Deniable Russian War Against Europe | John R. Deni, in Foreign Policy
8 Simmering Threats You Shouldn’t Ignore in 2025: A Plausibly Deniable Russian War Against Europe
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It’s (still) more expensive to rotate military forces overseas than base them there | By John R. Deni
It’s (Still) More Expensive to Rotate Military Forces Overseas than Base Them There
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Will Assad’s defeat be Putin’s Waterloo? | John R. Deni
Will Assad’s Defeat be Putin’s Waterloo?
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Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine | Ron Gurantz
Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine
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Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termination | C. Anthony Pfaff
Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termination
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Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’ | Jorh R. Deni
Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’
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The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24
The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24
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Ukraine has invaded Russia, what happens next? Dr. John R. Deni
Ukraine has invaded Russia, what happens next?
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From the Archives
The New NATO Force Model: Ready For Launch?
The New NATO Force Model: Ready For Launch? | John R. Deni Published by NATO NATO Allies are in the process of a dramatic change to the Alliance’s force structure, which will see the NATO Response Force (NRF) replaced with a three tiered structure of Allied forces, to include an Allied Reaction Force (ARF), all of which is designed to better defend and deter. This new NATO Force Model faces a variety of challenges. To avoid the potential pitfalls and ensure the Alliance fulfils its own vision, NATO and its member nations ought to consider an array of mitigating steps, such as using snap exercises and inspection visits to ensure forces are indeed manned, trained and equipped, and emphasizing mass and capacity in Allied acquisition plans and capability targets. https://www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=1937# Background image composite of pages from the publication NATO (https://www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=1937#)
May 28, 2024 - Allies are in the process of a dramatic change to the Alliance’s force structure, which will see the NATO Response Force (NRF) replaced with a three tiered structure of Allied forces, to include an Allied Reaction Force...
Now It’s Up to Europe to Take the Lead in Ukraine
Continental security can no longer be outsourced to the U.S., which may soon have other wars to fight. By John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson Ukrainians are breathing a sigh of relief. Within days, desperately needed ammunition and military equipment should begin flowing to Kyiv’s beleaguered forces. But even the $60 billion approved by Congress won’t be enough to enable a Ukrainian victory. If Ukraine loses, the West will be faced with a much more dangerous Russia and a highly unstable security environment, one that could demand far more in Western blood and treasure. With Washington’s latest tranche of funding, Ukraine should survive through 2024. But while Europeans have done a lot, they need to pick up the slack and do more for Ukraine militarily. https://www.wsj.com/articles/now-its-up-to-europe-to-take-the-lead-in-ukraine-russia-war-13a7daff Background image by Mathias Reding from Pexels (https://www.pexels.com/photo/people-on-protest-against-war-in-ukraine-11421247/)
April 25, 2024 - Continental security can no longer be outsourced to the U.S., which may soon have other wars to fight.By John R. Deni and Lisa A. AronssonUkrainians are breathing a sigh of relief. Within days, desperately needed ammunition...
Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: An American Perspective
In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems promise enhanced threat detection, terrorist groups are exploiting these tools for recruitment and attacks. The future is concerning as AI becomes more widespread and autonomous systems and augmented reality redefine society.
April 18, 2024 - In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI)...
75 years in, NATO Remains As Vital As Ever to American Life
As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and insufficiently focused on America’s main adversary, China. These critiques are to some degree understandable. NATO’s age obscures the reasons why the United States broke with historical tradition in 1949 and entangled itself in an alliance with other countries. As a result, today some Americans, and even some Europeans, take NATO for granted. Background image via article by by Beata Zawrzel (https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4572959-75-years-in-nato-remains-as-vital-as-ever-to-american-life/)
April 4, 2024 - As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and...
At 75, NATO Is Still Worth the Price
Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance. The North Atlantic Alliance should justifiably mark the seventy-fifth year since its founding, but this may not be the time to pop champagne corks. NATO has been labeled “the most successful alliance in history,” and depending on how one defines success, this label is fairly accurate. However, the alliance faces a fundamental challenge today, one that might mean the operative phrase in that superlative is “in history.” Europe, Russia, United States, EU, security and defense, SSI Worldwide Image from https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/92121
April 4, 2024 - Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance.The North Atlantic Alliance...
Research Handbook on NATO "Collective Defense"
Research Handbook on NATO Collective defense is back at center stage for NATO. This is primarily due to Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine, its illegal annexation of Crimea, and the subsequent and more brutal second invasion of 2022, all of which prompted NATO to fundamentally reassess how it provided security to its members states. Since then, the alliance has had to relearn lost skills, refill the ranks, and reinvest in materiel necessary for territorial defense in a way that it has not since the late 1980s. This chapter puts NATO’s return to collective defense in historical context, examining how the alliance pursued security during the Cold War and the post-Cold War period through the mid-2010s. The chapter also briefly outlines some of the most significant challenges NATO has confronted since 2014 in adapting to the ‘cold peace’. The key question facing NATO today is whether the allies have the wherewithal to fully reembrace collective defense while simultaneously remaining committed to crisis management and cooperative security. https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/usd/research-handbook-on-nato-9781839103384.html Background image from NATO on Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/nato/40006342665
March 28, 2024 - Collective defense is back at center stage for NATO. This is primarily due to Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine, its illegal annexation of Crimea, and the subsequent and more brutal second invasion of 2022, all of which...
EXPLAINER: What Is Article 5 and How Does it Shape NATO’s Ukraine Response?
Sweden, a neutral country for two centuries, is joining NATO in a move experts say will have a significant impact on global politics. The Swedish island of Gotland, located 120 miles southeast of Stockholm and slightly smaller than Rhode Island, is home to around 60,000 people, a thriving local farm scene and one of the world’s northernmost vineyards. In the face of the continued threat from Russian President Vladimir Putin, it’s also become one of the world’s most important geopolitical hotspots: For years American and European analysts have warned that the island in the middle of the Baltic Sea would likely play a key role in a broader Russian attack against Europe, with Russia potentially attempting to occupy Gotland to facilitate a larger regional invasion. In March 2022 – just days after Putin invaded Ukraine – Russian fighter jets emphasized the threat by buzzing Gotland airspace. ... “We’ve likely seen no comparable boost to the strength of Western security,” John R. Deni, a professor at the U.S. Army War College and the author of a book on NATO’s Article 5, wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed following Finland’s accession, “since West Germany joined the alliance in 1955.” https://teams.microsoft.com/l/message/48:notes/1709671085790?context=%7B%22contextType%22%3A%22chat%22%7D
March 5, 2024 - Sweden, a neutral country for two centuries, is joining NATO in a moveexperts say will have a significant impact on global politics.The Swedish Island of Gotland, located 120 miles southeast of Stockholm and slightly smaller...
Look deeper: Time may be on Ukraine’s side
If Kyiv can hold out through the next winter—a big if—there are trends that run in its favor. By John R. Deni Conventional wisdom is that time is on Russia’s side as Ukraine battles to fend off Moscow’s invasion. Although much remains unclear, it seems certain that if Congress fails to fund more military assistance to Ukraine or if U.S. policy shifts dramatically after Inauguration Day 2025, Kyiv may be forced to sue for peace. However, if these two possibilities do not come to pass, and if Ukraine can hold out through next winter, there are some indications that the tide will turn in Kyiv’s favor. Perhaps the most significant indication that a longer war would advantage Ukraine is the fact that U.S. defense industry is slowly but steadily reprising its role as “the arsenal of democracy.” For instance, the United States has increased its output of 155mm shells far faster than expected, with plans to increase it further. From a rate of around 14,000 rounds per month before Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022, the United States has exceeded its target of 24,000 rounds by the end of 2023 and is now on track to produce around 36,000 per month by March. Furthermore, that rate should be doubled by this time next year. https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2024/03/look-deeper-time-may-be-ukraines-side/394649/ Background image by BEATA ZAWRZEL/NURPHOTO via Getty Images from from Defense One article (https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2024/03/look-deeper-time-may-be-ukraines-side/394649/)
March 4, 2024 - If Kyiv can hold out through the next winter—a big if—there are trends that run in its favor.Conventional wisdom is that time is on Russia’s side as Ukraine battles to fend off Moscow’s invasion. Although much remains...
Deterring War without Threatening War: Rehabilitating the West’s Risk-averse Approach to Deterrence
Antulio J. Echevarria II - US Army War College Shortly after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, defense scholars began asking why the West’s approach to deterrence had failed. Some critics claimed the West never had an official deterrence policy regarding Ukraine, or at least not a consistent one; others maintained the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) took military force “off the table” too soon, relying too much on the coercive power of sanctions.[i] In truth, the West had both a deterrence policy and a supporting deterrence strategy vis-à-vis Ukraine. US President Joseph Biden and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reinforced the policy and the strategy by repeatedly warning Russia’s President Vladimir Putin not to attack Ukraine. However, the West’s approach was too risk-averse to succeed against a major power armed with military capabilities comparable to NATO’s own. It attempted to deter war without threatening war, which in turn rendered it vulnerable to Russian deterrence. By attempting to minimize the risk of a major war, the West made the right call, even though it resulted in the failure of its own deterrence measures. The “value of the political object,” to borrow Clausewitz’s expression, did not warrant risking a potentially ruinous war.[ii] The question now is whether it is possible to rehabilitate the West’s approach to deterrence without requiring NATO to act as irresponsibly with military force as did Putin’s Russia. https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/deterring-war-without-threatening-war-rehabilitating-the-wests-risk-averse-approach-to-deterrence/
Jan. 19, 2024 - Shortly after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, defense scholars began asking why the West’s approach to deterrence had failed. Some critics claimed the West never had an official deterrence policy...
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