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Russia's the enemy | Dr. John R. Deni
Russia's the Enemy
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Russia, Ukraine, and Collective Defence | Dr. John R. Deni & Anca Agachi
Russia, Ukraine, and Collective Defence
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Does NATO still matter? | Dr. John R. Deni
Does NATO Still Matter?
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Don’t waste this crisis, Europe: consolidate your defense industry | Dr. John R. Deni
Don’t waste this crisis, Europe: consolidate your defense industry
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A Drawdown of U.S. Forces in Europe Is All but Certain | John R. Deni
A Drawdown of US Forces in Europe Is All but Certain
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A Plausibly Deniable Russian War Against Europe | John R. Deni, in Foreign Policy
8 Simmering Threats You Shouldn’t Ignore in 2025: A Plausibly Deniable Russian War Against Europe
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It’s (still) more expensive to rotate military forces overseas than base them there | By John R. Deni
It’s (Still) More Expensive to Rotate Military Forces Overseas than Base Them There
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From the Archives
Will Assad’s Defeat be Putin’s Waterloo?
Will Assad’s defeat be Putin’s Waterloo? | John R. Deni The Assad regime in Syria has become a casualty of Moscow’s increasingly desperate efforts in Ukraine, and its collapse is a strategic and operational blow that undermines the narrative of Russia as ascendant, Kyiv as doomed, and Vladimir Putin as strategic mastermind.
Dec. 10, 2024 - The narrative of Russia’s ascendancy in 2024 is beginning to look like more fiction than fact. The Assad regime in Syria has become a casualty of Moscow’s increasingly desperate efforts in Ukraine, and its collapse is a...
Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine
Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine | Ron Gurantz
Dec. 5, 2024 - The US strategy in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine appeared to undermine Russian efforts to justify the war. While studies of international crises typically focus on the goals of deterrence and escalation management,...
Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termination
Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termination | C. Anthony Pfaff As wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue with little end in sight, the sense of urgency to determine how they should end is increasing, given how the wars could end. A just war aims to establish a better state of peace, but a better state of peace may not always be achievable, and even when it is achievable, it may not be good enough. When that is the case, actors must determine on what terms to settle, given what they think they can achieve based on relative capabilities and cost tolerances. The resulting “maximin” solution, a practical approach where actors maximize the minimum they can achieve, provides a range of solutions. But taking only these factors into account is not likely to produce an enduring or more perfect peace. To get to a “good enough” state of peace, justice concerns—in this case framed by the just-war tradition—play a role. By impacting what counts as costs and benefits and placing boundaries on what actors should accept independently of those costs and benefits, the just-war tradition can help actors construct more durable settlements. The experiences in Ukraine and Gaza further illustrate gaps in the just-war tradition, which this book also addresses. https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/973/ Background and cover photo of a demolished building from Unsplash (https://unsplash.com/photos/a-very-large-building-that-has-been-destroyed-16gEx0-acCQ)
Sept. 23, 2024 - As wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue with little end in sight, the sense of urgency to determine how they should end is increasing, given how the wars could end. A just war aims to establish a better state of peace, but a...
Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’
Whether and how NATO might pull Ukraine closer attracted a great deal of attention at the 2024 Washington summit, with the Alliance settling on the formulation of an ‘irreversible path’ towards Kyiv’s membership and pledging to further institutionalise the NATO–Ukraine relationship. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2024.2403220
Sept. 20, 2024 - Whether and how NATO might pull Ukraine closer attracted a great deal of attention at the 2024 Washington summit, with the Alliance settling on the formulation of an ‘irreversible path’ towards Kyiv’s membership and pledging...
The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24
The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24 | John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson Background image and cover photo from article (with permission)
Sept. 19, 2024 - What more can US allies in Europe do to assist Ukraine militarily? More broadly, what can the United States expect from its closest allies in Europe in strategic competition with Russia and China? In this monograph, John R...
Ukraine has invaded Russia, what happens next?
Ukraine has invaded Russia, what happens next? Dr. John R. Deni Background image of the roadsign at the semi-destroyed entry-exit checkpoint ‘Sudzha’ on the Ukraine-Russia border from ABC.net.au (https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/saturdayextra/ukraine-kursk/104260482)
Aug. 26, 2024 - Ukraine shocked Russia and its allies by launching a surprise attack on the Kursk region and has now seized over 1200 square kilometres of enemy territory. Will this operation prove pivotal for the war or could it turn into a...
Satellites in the Russia-Ukraine War 
Satellites in the Russia-Ukraine War Ron Gurantz Satellites and counterspace systems have shown themselves to be important parts of modern warfare in the Russia-Ukraine War but have also been subject to various restrictions to prevent escalation. This monograph examines the role of satellites and counterspace systems in the Russia-Ukraine War’s high-technology warfare and the effects of satellite proliferation and commercialization on the conduct of the war. It also analyzes the restrictions under which space-based capabilities have been operating and the implications of these limits for future conflicts—a subject that has received little attention. Relying on an exhaustive study of open-source material and the application of limited-war theory to the case of the Russia-Ukraine War, this monograph will help officials and strategists better understand the roles satellites are likely to play in future conflicts and the limits under which states will operate them as governments seek to gain military advantage and avoid escalation. KEYWORDS space, counterspace, satellites, Russia-Ukraine War, limited war, escalation Background and cover image of AI-generated satellite over Earth from Freepik (https://www.freepik.com/free-photo/spacecraft-orbiting-planet-earth-global-communications-generated-by-ai_41438906.htm)
Aug. 21, 2024 - adetail.news .article-body { max-width: 90% !important; }Satellites and counterspace systems have shown themselves to be important parts of modern warfare in the Russia-Ukraine War but have also been subject to various...
The NATO Strategic Concept on Its Seventy-Fifth Anniversary
The NATO Strategic Concept on its Seventy-Fifth Anniversary Dr. John R. Deni Dr. Sten Rynning https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/July-August-2024/NATO-Strategic-Concept/ The 2022 Brussels summit in Belgium, a meeting of the heads of state and government of NATO, took place 24 March 2022 at NATO’s headquarters just one month after the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Following the summit, leaders released a joint statement condemning the attacks on civilians and calling on Russia to immediately suspend military operations in Ukraine. (Photo courtesy of NATO)
Aug. 14, 2024 - | Published by Army University Press Military Review, July-August 2024 |  The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will celebrate its seventy-fifth anniversary at its 2024 summit in Washington, D.C. NATO’s age tells a...
NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial
NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial John R. Deni Published by POLITICO https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-us-army-chinese-government-defense-war-europe-allies-cold-war-russia-poland/
July 8, 2024 - Taking the necessary steps to fully operationalize deterrence by denial is critical — especially before a possible change in America’s relationship with NATO.Recent revelations that the Chinese government has been...
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