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A Plausibly Deniable Russian War Against Europe | John R. Deni, in Foreign Policy
8 Simmering Threats You Shouldn’t Ignore in 2025: A Plausibly Deniable Russian War Against Europe
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It’s (still) more expensive to rotate military forces overseas than base them there | By John R. Deni
It’s (Still) More Expensive to Rotate Military Forces Overseas than Base Them There
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Will Assad’s defeat be Putin’s Waterloo? | John R. Deni
Will Assad’s Defeat be Putin’s Waterloo?
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Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine | Ron Gurantz
Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine
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Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termination | C. Anthony Pfaff
Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termination
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Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’ | Jorh R. Deni
Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’
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The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24
The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24
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Ukraine has invaded Russia, what happens next? Dr. John R. Deni
Ukraine has invaded Russia, what happens next?
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From the Archives
NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial
NATO’s in Denial about Deterrence by Denial John R. Deni Published by POLITICO https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-us-army-chinese-government-defense-war-europe-allies-cold-war-russia-poland/
July 8, 2024 - Taking the necessary steps to fully operationalize deterrence by denial is critical — especially before a possible change in America’s relationship with NATO.Recent revelations that the Chinese government has been...
A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force
John A. Nagl, Project Director Katie Crombe, Chief of Staff The Russia-Ukraine War represents a strategic inflection point that provides valuable insights into the future of war and how the US military must adapt. This book identifies the US Army’s current weaknesses and the lessons it must learn from the Russia-Ukraine War as the service reexamines all aspects of its composition to prepare for future conflicts. Keywords: Russia-Ukraine War, multidomain operations, convergence, combined arms, reconstitution, large-scale combat operations, sustainment, security assistance, personnel depth, mission command, allies, UAS, AI, OSSINT, command post, strategic inflection point Ukraine flag painting used on cover and background image from Freepik (https://www.freepik.com/free-vector/hand-painted-watercolour-ukraine-flag-background_25033790.htm) and the tank from Unsplash (https://unsplash.com/photos/a-large-rusted-out-tank-sitting-on-the-side-of-a-road-SxFGG1cIOw0)
June 27, 2024 - The Russia-Ukraine War represents a strategic inflection point that provides valuable insights into the future of war and how the US military must adapt. This book identifies the lessons the US Army must learn from the...
The New NATO Force Model: Ready For Launch?
The New NATO Force Model: Ready For Launch? | John R. Deni Published by NATO NATO Allies are in the process of a dramatic change to the Alliance’s force structure, which will see the NATO Response Force (NRF) replaced with a three tiered structure of Allied forces, to include an Allied Reaction Force (ARF), all of which is designed to better defend and deter. This new NATO Force Model faces a variety of challenges. To avoid the potential pitfalls and ensure the Alliance fulfils its own vision, NATO and its member nations ought to consider an array of mitigating steps, such as using snap exercises and inspection visits to ensure forces are indeed manned, trained and equipped, and emphasizing mass and capacity in Allied acquisition plans and capability targets. https://www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=1937# Background image composite of pages from the publication NATO (https://www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=1937#)
May 28, 2024 - Allies are in the process of a dramatic change to the Alliance’s force structure, which will see the NATO Response Force (NRF) replaced with a three tiered structure of Allied forces, to include an Allied Reaction Force...
Now It’s Up to Europe to Take the Lead in Ukraine
Continental security can no longer be outsourced to the U.S., which may soon have other wars to fight. By John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson Ukrainians are breathing a sigh of relief. Within days, desperately needed ammunition and military equipment should begin flowing to Kyiv’s beleaguered forces. But even the $60 billion approved by Congress won’t be enough to enable a Ukrainian victory. If Ukraine loses, the West will be faced with a much more dangerous Russia and a highly unstable security environment, one that could demand far more in Western blood and treasure. With Washington’s latest tranche of funding, Ukraine should survive through 2024. But while Europeans have done a lot, they need to pick up the slack and do more for Ukraine militarily. https://www.wsj.com/articles/now-its-up-to-europe-to-take-the-lead-in-ukraine-russia-war-13a7daff Background image by Mathias Reding from Pexels (https://www.pexels.com/photo/people-on-protest-against-war-in-ukraine-11421247/)
April 25, 2024 - Continental security can no longer be outsourced to the U.S., which may soon have other wars to fight.By John R. Deni and Lisa A. AronssonUkrainians are breathing a sigh of relief. Within days, desperately needed ammunition...
Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: An American Perspective
In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems promise enhanced threat detection, terrorist groups are exploiting these tools for recruitment and attacks. The future is concerning as AI becomes more widespread and autonomous systems and augmented reality redefine society.
April 18, 2024 - In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI)...
75 years in, NATO Remains As Vital As Ever to American Life
As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and insufficiently focused on America’s main adversary, China. These critiques are to some degree understandable. NATO’s age obscures the reasons why the United States broke with historical tradition in 1949 and entangled itself in an alliance with other countries. As a result, today some Americans, and even some Europeans, take NATO for granted. Background image via article by by Beata Zawrzel (https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4572959-75-years-in-nato-remains-as-vital-as-ever-to-american-life/)
April 4, 2024 - As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and...
At 75, NATO Is Still Worth the Price
Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance. The North Atlantic Alliance should justifiably mark the seventy-fifth year since its founding, but this may not be the time to pop champagne corks. NATO has been labeled “the most successful alliance in history,” and depending on how one defines success, this label is fairly accurate. However, the alliance faces a fundamental challenge today, one that might mean the operative phrase in that superlative is “in history.” Europe, Russia, United States, EU, security and defense, SSI Worldwide Image from https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/92121
April 4, 2024 - Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance.The North Atlantic Alliance...
Research Handbook on NATO "Collective Defense"
Research Handbook on NATO Collective defense is back at center stage for NATO. This is primarily due to Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine, its illegal annexation of Crimea, and the subsequent and more brutal second invasion of 2022, all of which prompted NATO to fundamentally reassess how it provided security to its members states. Since then, the alliance has had to relearn lost skills, refill the ranks, and reinvest in materiel necessary for territorial defense in a way that it has not since the late 1980s. This chapter puts NATO’s return to collective defense in historical context, examining how the alliance pursued security during the Cold War and the post-Cold War period through the mid-2010s. The chapter also briefly outlines some of the most significant challenges NATO has confronted since 2014 in adapting to the ‘cold peace’. The key question facing NATO today is whether the allies have the wherewithal to fully reembrace collective defense while simultaneously remaining committed to crisis management and cooperative security. https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/usd/research-handbook-on-nato-9781839103384.html Background image from NATO on Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/nato/40006342665
March 28, 2024 - Collective defense is back at center stage for NATO. This is primarily due to Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine, its illegal annexation of Crimea, and the subsequent and more brutal second invasion of 2022, all of which...
EXPLAINER: What Is Article 5 and How Does it Shape NATO’s Ukraine Response?
Sweden, a neutral country for two centuries, is joining NATO in a move experts say will have a significant impact on global politics. The Swedish island of Gotland, located 120 miles southeast of Stockholm and slightly smaller than Rhode Island, is home to around 60,000 people, a thriving local farm scene and one of the world’s northernmost vineyards. In the face of the continued threat from Russian President Vladimir Putin, it’s also become one of the world’s most important geopolitical hotspots: For years American and European analysts have warned that the island in the middle of the Baltic Sea would likely play a key role in a broader Russian attack against Europe, with Russia potentially attempting to occupy Gotland to facilitate a larger regional invasion. In March 2022 – just days after Putin invaded Ukraine – Russian fighter jets emphasized the threat by buzzing Gotland airspace. ... “We’ve likely seen no comparable boost to the strength of Western security,” John R. Deni, a professor at the U.S. Army War College and the author of a book on NATO’s Article 5, wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed following Finland’s accession, “since West Germany joined the alliance in 1955.” https://teams.microsoft.com/l/message/48:notes/1709671085790?context=%7B%22contextType%22%3A%22chat%22%7D
March 5, 2024 - Sweden, a neutral country for two centuries, is joining NATO in a moveexperts say will have a significant impact on global politics.The Swedish Island of Gotland, located 120 miles southeast of Stockholm and slightly smaller...
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