Study of Internal Conflict – SOIC Conflict Studies
This page captures research and analysis by SSI professors, USAWC faculty and students, and research assistants into the causes and outcomes of internal conflicts since 1945 as part of the ongoing Study of Internal Conflict (SOIC). Research and analysis will also include topics in Unconventional and Irregular Warfare.
SOIC Conflict Studies
The Study of Internal Conflict (SOIC) began in 2014 as a research project at the Strategic Studies Institute to determine the actual causes of government failure in internal conflict. The study has analyzed more than 40 military, political, economic and geographical factors in 53 wars since 1945 to determine which conflict parameters correlate with government failure in at least 90 percent of all insurgencies and civil wars. Five factors have been identified which are present in virtually every government defeat: (1) Less than 85 percent of the total population expressing a national identity, (2) Less than 85 percent government legitimacy, (3) less than 85 percent of population being fully isolated from contact with the rebel group, (4) the existence of persistent external sanctuary for the rebel group, and (5) the lack of sustainable, pre-existing security forces under the control of the government at the outset of the conflict. Furthermore, it was found that in no case since 1945 have counterinsurgency methods such as “reconstruction,” “pacification” and “clear, hold and build” ever increased popular support for the government or increased legitimacy in any quantifiable degree anywhere in the world. The article “COIN Doctrine is Wrong” in the summer 2021 issue of Parameters describes the research study, the definitions, the conflicts, the factors and the analytical methodology in more detail.