Recent Publications

Peace and Unity: China’s Growing Military Footprint in Tanzania
October 9, 2024 — The July and August 2024 Sino-Tanzanian training exercise Peace Unity-2024 (和平团结-2024) provided the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) an opportunity to apply its growing joint expeditionary capability, while also strengthening its relationship with a key strategic partner on the African continent.1 Commemorating 60 years of bilateral relations between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Tanzania, the exercise included antipiracy and counterterrorism training events that enabled the PLA to train in Tanzania’s complex terrain alongside elements of the Tanzanian People’s Defense Forces (TPDF)... MORE

Peace and Unity: China’s Growing Military Footprint in Tanzania | Jake Vartanian

Understanding the PRC’s Selective Use of Military Hotlines
October 4, 2024 — Executive Summary: The PRC’s strategic use of and reluctance to establish military hotlines reflect a calculated approach to escalation risk, which can be seen in crises ranging from the accidental bombing of its embassy in Belgrade in 1999 to the present day. There is a recognition that hotlines offer tactical benefits, but they are not viewed as a solution... MORE

The PRC’s strategic use of and reluctance to establish military hotlines reflect a calculated approach to escalation risk, which can be seen in crises ranging from the accidental bombing of its embassy in Belgrade in 1999 to the present day. There is a recognition that hotlines offer tactical benefits, but they are not viewed as a solution to

Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termination
September 23, 2024 — As wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue with little end in sight, the sense of urgency to determine how they should end is increasing, given how the wars could end. A just war aims to establish a better state of peace, but a better state of peace may not always be achievable, and even when it is achievable, it may not be good enough. When that is the case, actors must determine on what terms to settle... MORE

Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termination | C. Anthony Pfaff

Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’
September 20, 2024 — Whether and how NATO might pull Ukraine closer attracted a great deal of attention at the 2024 Washington summit, with the Alliance settling on the formulation of an ‘irreversible path’ towards Kyiv’s membership and pledging to further institutionalise the NATO–Ukraine relationship. There has been comparatively little analysis of what should happen... MORE

Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’ | Jorh R. Deni

The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24
September 19, 2024 — What more can US allies in Europe do to assist Ukraine militarily? More broadly, what can the United States expect from its closest allies in Europe in strategic competition with Russia and China? In this monograph, John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson assess whether US allies and partners in Europe can continue providing military assistance to Ukraine or expand assistance, while preserving their own national... MORE

The Growing Significance of China-Russia Defense Cooperation
September 18, 2024 — Russian President Vladimir Putin’s two recent meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, especially his visit to Beijing in May, reinforced US and allied concerns about the China-Russia relationship, especially the two countries’ growing security cooperation. In recent months, US officials have increasingly called attention to the support that China is providing to Russia’s defense industry, which has helped Russia to... MORE

The Growing Significance of China-Russia Defense Cooperation |
Brian G. Carlson

Brazil’s Attempt to Control X: The Deterioration of the Liberal World Order
September 13, 2024 — Elon Musk’s clash with the Lula government raises the issue of how to promote democracy and free speech in the new technological era... MORE

Bolivia and US Dilemmas in Engaging with Problematic Regimes in Latin America
September 12, 2024 — I recently had the opportunity to engage with a senior Bolivian colleague connected with the government of Luis Arce regarding the country’s economic and political difficulties and its relationship with the United States. Their fundamental question was, “Why can’t Bolivia’s relationship with the United States be better?” The instinctive response... MORE

The Impact of the Political Orientation of Latin America, on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in the Region
August 27, 2024 — Latin America is currently undergoing unprecedented political shifts. This phenomenon is characterized by the recent electoral victories of left-ofcenter candidates in Mexico in 2018; Argentina in 2019; Peru, Honduras, and Chile in 2021; and in Brazil and Colombia... MORE

The Impact of the Political Orientation of Latin America, on the Advance of the People’s Republic of China in the Region
R. Evan Ellis

Ukraine has invaded Russia, what happens next?
August 26, 2024 — Ukraine shocked Russia and its allies by launching a surprise attack on the Kursk region and has now seized over 1200 square kilometres of enemy territory. Will this operation prove pivotal for the war or could it turn into a strategic disaster? Guest: Dr John R. Deni, Research Professor of Security Studies at the U.S. Army War College's Strategic... MORE

Ukraine has invaded Russia, what happens next?
Dr. John R. Deni

Satellites in the Russia-Ukraine War
August 21, 2024 — adetail.news .article-body { max-width: 90% !important; }Satellites and counterspace systems have shown themselves to be important parts of modern warfare in the Russia-Ukraine War but have also been subject to various restrictions to prevent escalation. This monograph examines the role of satellites and counterspace systems in the Russia-Ukraine... MORE

Satellites in the Russia-Ukraine War by Ron Gurantz

AY25 Campaign Planning Handbook
August 14, 2024 — The purpose of this document is to assist United States Army War College students during the Military Strategy and Campaigning (MSC) course. It also serves to assist commanders, planners, and other staff officers in combatant commands (CCMD), joint task forces (JTF), and Service component commands. It supplements joint doctrine and contains... MORE