Recent Publications

8 Simmering Threats You Shouldn’t Ignore in 2025: A Plausibly Deniable Russian War Against Europe
January 2, 2025 — The sabotage of undersea communications cables in the Baltic Sea by the cargo ship Yi Peng 3 is only the latest in a series of asymmetric attacks against Western interests and infrastructure that appear to be connected in one way or another to Moscow. The Kremlin has clearly ratcheted up efforts to intimidate and coerce Europe, hoping to... MORE

A Plausibly Deniable Russian War Against Europe | John R. Deni, in Foreign Policy

2025: Possibilities for the Year to Come
December 27, 2024 — 2025 is likely to be a transformative year for Latin America and the Caribbean, and its relationships with the United States, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and other actors. Although it is impossible to predict with certainty the complex interaction among interdependent events and factors, it is important to recognize the substantial number... MORE

2025: Possibilities for the Year to Come | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

Ecuador’s Evolving Engagement with the PRC
December 24, 2024 — Under the current Ecuadorian government of Daniel Noboa, major infrastructure, financial, and security cooperation with China has been restrained, but political expediency may change that.In September 2024, Ecuadorian Economy Minister Juan Carlos Vega Malo traveled to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to discuss a range of commercial and... MORE

Ecuador’s Evolving Engagement with the PRC | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

It’s (Still) More Expensive to Rotate Military Forces Overseas than Base Them There
December 19, 2024 — In mid-2020, then-President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to withdraw roughly one-third of US forces from Germany, reportedly because of policy differences with Berlin. Given how long it would take to implement such a significant change in overseas posture, the clock ran out on his term before the Department of Defense could complete it. With... MORE

It’s (still) more expensive to rotate military forces overseas than base them there | By John R. Deni

Security Implications for the United States from Iranian and Hezbollah Activities in Latin America
December 18, 2024 — This presentation will examine engagement with Latin America by Iran, its government agents, and surrogate groups such as Hezbollah, including terrorist finance, terrorism, and other activities and their evolution in recent years. It will address the interaction of that presence with the risk of escalating the conflict in the Middle East and weak... MORE

Security Implications for the United States from Iranian and Hezbollah Activities in Latin America | R. Evan Ellis
WEBINAR

Making the Case for Democratic, Limited Government and Economic Liberty in the Americas
December 17, 2024 — This work is derived from an address given by the author to the InterAmerican Institute for Democracy on December 4, 2024, in Miami, Florida.In discussing the status of political and economic freedom in Latin America, my thoughts go to the consolidation of power of criminal dictatorships in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba, the deterioration of... MORE

Making the Case for Democratic, Limited Government and Economic Liberty in the Americas | R. Evan Ellis

Will Assad’s Defeat be Putin’s Waterloo?
December 10, 2024 — The narrative of Russia’s ascendancy in 2024 is beginning to look like more fiction than fact. The Assad regime in Syria has become a casualty of Moscow’s increasingly desperate efforts in Ukraine, and its collapse is a strategic and operational blow that undermines the narrative of Russia as ascendant, Kyiv as doomed, and Vladimir Putin as strategic mastermind. ... MORE

Will Assad’s defeat be Putin’s Waterloo? | John R. Deni

China’s Next Step in Modernizing the People’s Liberation Army: A New Reserve Service System
December 5, 2024 — The Chinese Communist Party’s massive active-duty army—the largest in the world—understates the manpower available to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) during a future protracted war. Despite the hundreds of thousands of combat troops garrisoned around the country, a prolonged war of attrition will require more than movement of forces from one side of the country to another... MORE

China’s Next Step in Modernizing the People’s Liberation Army: A New Reserve Service System | Joshua M. Arostegui

Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine
December 5, 2024 — The US strategy in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine appeared to undermine Russian efforts to justify the war. While studies of international crises typically focus on the goals of deterrence and escalation management, recent events in Ukraine show that counterjustification is another important objective. Russia used covert activities and deception to try and create a pretext for its invasion, and the United States aggressively countered these efforts... MORE

Pretexts for War and the Preinvasion Crisis in Ukraine | Ron Gurantz

China’s Summit Diplomacy: Insights From BRICS, APEC and the G20
November 26, 2024 — From late October through mid-November, China’s President Xi Jinping held high-profile engagements in three very different major international forums: the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia; the APEC Leadership Forum in Lima, Peru; and the G-20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Beyond the dominant role of Xi and China in each summit, the three distinct performances by Xi also provide important... MORE

China’s Summit Diplomacy: Insights From BRICS,
APEC and the G20 | R. Evan Ellis

Challenges and Opportunities for U.S.-Mexico Security Cooperation
November 26, 2024 — While policy clashes between the elected governments of Mexico and the United States in the coming years appear likely, the degree to which those tensions degrade the commercial relationship and security cooperation that is vital to both will depend on the forbearance and statesmanship of leaders on each side... MORE

Challenges and Opportunities for US-Mexico Security Cooperation | R. Evan Ellis

Parameters | Winter 2024–25
November 21, 2024 — Welcome to the Winter 2024–25 issue of Parameters. This issue consists of an In Focus special commentary, three forums (Indo-Pacific, Security Cooperation, and Historical Studies), and the regular Civil-Military Relations Corner installment... MORE