Recent Publications

China’s Security Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean
February 26, 2024 — An overview of the characteristics and trends in China’s security engagement in the region, and how it is evolving. China’s activities in the security and defense sector in Latin America and the Caribbean are a small but strategically significant portion of its engagement with the region. Beijing has openly acknowledged its interest in engaging with the region on security matters in the 2008 and 2016... MORE

China’s Security Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean
An overview of the characteristics and trends in China’s security engagement in the region, and how it is evolving.

Why North Korea Survives
February 20, 2024 — Here’s how the Kim regime has proven so resilient.North Korea’s recent jettisoning of reunification with South Korea as a national goal has raised much speculation about Pyongyang’s goals and strategy. Relatively overlooked in recent debates over whether the Kim regime might be preparing for war with South Korea—more than it is usually, anyway—is... MORE

Why North Korea Survives
Here’s how the Kim regime has proven so resilient.
Sheena Chestnut Greitens

China-Latin America Space Cooperation: An Overview
February 16, 2024 — As China has increased its political and economic cooperation with Latin America, it has also expanded its space engagement with the region.In September 2023, during a visit to China, Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro announced an agreement in which China would transport Venezuelans to a research base it plans to build on the moon, the... MORE

China-Latin America Space Cooperation: An Overview
By R. Evan Ellis

As China has increased its political and economic cooperation with Latin America, it has also expanded its space engagement with the region.
https://thediplomat.com/2024/02/china-latin-america-space-cooperation-an-overview/

CMSI Note #4: Deck Cargo Ships: Another Option for a Cross-Strait Invasion
February 14, 2024 — CMSI Perspectives and Key Take-Aways: In addition to RO-RO ferries, the PLA also uses another class of RO-RO ship, the deck cargo ship, in sea transport training exercises. Deck cargo ships are widely used in China’s ocean engineering and construction industry, constituting an existing and large-scale volume of lift capacity. The simple design and... MORE

CMSI Note #4: Deck Cargo Ships: Another Option for a Cross-Strait Invasion | Authors Conor M. Kennedy

PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights
February 8, 2024 — PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights R. Evan Ellis Over the past twenty years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has expanded its political, institutional, economic, and other forms of engagement with all regions of the world. Not surprisingly, because engagement in Latin America and the... MORE

PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights | R. Evan Ellis

The Mixed Message About China's Economy
February 8, 2024 — Chinese Premier Li Qiang spoke this week at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, saying the Chinese economy was doing just fine. Signals out of Beijing have been conveying a different message.SHEENA CHESTNUT GREITENS: So I think that the idea that economic growth created the basis for stability for the Chinese Communist Party was the... MORE

The Mixed Message About China's Economy | NPR Podcast Appearance by Sheena Greitens

Argentina's Milei Returns Idea of Limited Gov't to Global Stage In Latin America
February 6, 2024 — The nine most terrifying words in the English language are:I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help.— Ronald Reagan - Aug. 12, 1986Most Argentines did not elect eclectic libertarian Javier Milei in November 2023 because they understood his economic philosophy.Rather, they were exasperated by the economic disaster of the leftist Peronist... MORE

Argentina's Milei Returns Idea of Limited Gov't to Global Stage In Latin America | R. Evan Ellis

Strategic Implications of the Deterioration of the Rules-Based International Order
February 2, 2024 — The multiple crises currently playing out in Ukraine, the Middle East, the Taiwan straits, and even Guyana’s Essequibo region, reflect a deterioration of the rules-based international order that has served as the foundation for economic growth, technological progress, and the limitation of interstate conflict since the end of the Second World War... MORE

Strategic Implications of the Deterioration of the Rules-Based International Order | R. Evan Ellis

International Competition in the High North: Kingston Conference on International Security 2022
January 25, 2024 — Editors: Michael E. Lynch, Howard G. CoombsThe 16th annual Kingston Consortium on International Security conference, “International Competition in the High North,” took place on October 11–13, 2022, in Kingston, Ontario, Canada. The conference examined the Arctic region in the context of ongoing climate change and against the backdrop of war in... MORE

Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn’t Falling
January 22, 2024 — The takeover of Ecuadorian TV station TC in the middle of a widely watched news broadcast, Ecuadoran President Daniel Noboa’s declaration of a state of internal armed conflict, and his deployment of the military as part of the response dominated international news and captured the attention of Washington policymakers last week. Ecuador’s homicide... MORE

Perspectives on Ecuador: The Sky Isn’t Falling | R. Evan Ellis
Background image from United Press International via Global Americans Article (https://theglobalamericans.org/perspectives-on-ecuador-the-sky-isnt-falling)

Deterring War without Threatening War: Rehabilitating the West’s Risk-averse Approach to Deterrence
January 19, 2024 — Shortly after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, defense scholars began asking why the West’s approach to deterrence had failed. Some critics claimed the West never had an official deterrence policy regarding Ukraine, or at least not a consistent one; others maintained the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty... MORE

Deterring War without Threatening War: Rehabilitating the West’s Risk-averse Approach to Deterrence - Military Strategy Magazine
Antulio J. Echevarria II
https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/deterring-war-without-threatening-war-rehabilitating-the-wests-risk-averse-approach-to-deterrence/

Assessing the Outcome of Taiwan's Presidential Election | 2024 Elections to Watch
January 18, 2024 — On January 13 Taiwanese voters headed to the polls, where they elected William Lai to serve as president. Carnegie Asia Program non-resident scholar Sheena Greitens breaks down the results of the election and the various issues at play.Watch on YouTube MORE

On January 13 Taiwanese voters headed to the polls, where they elected William Lai to serve as president.

Carnegie Asia Program non-resident scholar Sheena Greitens breaks down the results of the election and the various issues at play.