Recent Publications

AI: Centaurs Versus Minotaurs—Who Is in Charge?
June 28, 2023 — Who is in charge when it comes to AI? People or machines? In this episode, Paul Scharre, author of the books Army of None: Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War and the award-winning Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, and Robert Sparrow, coauthor with Adam Henschke of “Minotaurs, Not Centaurs: The Future of Manned-Unmanned Teaming”... MORE

Trusting AI: Integrating Artificial Intelligence into the Army’s Professional Expert Knowledge
June 22, 2023 — Integrating artificially intelligent technologies for military purposes poses a special challenge. In previous arms races, such as the race to atomic bomb technology during World War II, expertise resided within the Department of Defense. But in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race, expertise dwells mostly within industry and academia. Also, unlike the development of the bomb, effective employment of AI... MORE

“Responding to Future Pandemics: Biosecurity Implications and Defense Considerations”
June 8, 2023 — In an evolving and expanding biothreat landscape caused by emerging biotechnologies, increases in global infectious disease outbreaks, and geopolitical instability, the Department of Defense now faces challenges that alter its traditional approach to biothreats and prompt the need for modernized, improved preparedness for—and response to—potential biothreat scenarios. These challenges further complicate specific weaknesses revealed by the COVID-19 pandemic, including the Department’s inability to sustain the military mission while meeting intragovernmental expectations to assist with civilian public health resources and services... MORE

“Taiwan’s Food Resiliency—or Not—in a Conflict with China”
June 2, 2023 — The US military, intelligence, and diplomatic communities have overlooked a key vulnerability in their assessment of a potential military conflict between China and Taiwan—Taiwan’s growing reliance on agricultural imports and its food stocks (except for rice) that could endure trade disruptions for only six months. This podcast assesses Taiwan’s agricultural sector and its ability to feed the country’s population if food imports and production are disrupted; identifies the food products that should be prioritized in resupply operations, based on Taiwan’s nutritional needs and domestic food production; and outlines the required logistical assets. These findings underscore the urgency for US military planners to develop long-term logistical solutions for this complex strategic issue. ... MORE

China’s Future Military Capabilities
May 22, 2023 — The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America identifies China as the “pacing challenge” for the US military. This podcast examines the process by which China’s military capabilities are developed, the capabilities China’s military is seeking to acquire in the future, and the resulting implications for the US military. To date, all the extant studies have merely described the capabilities the People’s Liberation Army is currently acquiring... MORE

“Daoism and Design: Mapping the Conflict in Syria”
May 16, 2023 — In contemporary military operations, some problems are so complex they do not give way to linear solutions but require problem management instead. Combining the fundamentals of Dao De Jing philosophy with the US military design process offers a new perspective to analyze complex security problems, devise management strategies, and plan military operations. Applying this new approach to the complex security environment in Syria allows for a nonlinear mapping of long-term goals and a new perspective on relationships between key actors, environmental factors that restrict changes in the security environment, and where planners should focus their attention. ... MORE

Revisiting “Sino-Russian Relations and the War in Ukraine”
May 11, 2023 — In this podcast, Zenel Garcia and Kevin Modlin draw on recent visits of Chinese officials to Russia to support their contention that Sino-Russian relations are a narrow partnership centered on accelerating the emergence of a multipolar order to reduce American hegemony and illustrate this point by tracing the discursive and empirical foundations of the relationship. Additionally, they highlight how the war... MORE

On “Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield and Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency”
May 10, 2023 — In this episode of Conversations on Strategy, Lucas Cox shares his thoughts on being an intern working on two collaborative studies for NATO. ... MORE

“Medical Resilience and Pandemics” from Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield CISR (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 2)
May 9, 2023 — Wuraola Oyewusi Medical resilience is a key critical infrastructure in a nation’s preparedness against vulnerabilities. Pandemics such as COVID-19 are potent disruptors of this infrastructure. Health systems that are considered low-resourced have adapted and deployed seemingly simple but effective methods to survive such disruptions... MORE

Parameters Summer Preview
April 26, 2023 — This podcast offers a preview of the latest Parameters demi-issue and full issue... MORE

“Minotaurs, Not Centaurs: The Future of Manned-Unmanned Teaming”
April 12, 2023 — Contesting Paul Scharre’s influential vision of “centaur warfighting” and the idea that autonomous weapon systems will replace human warfighters, Sparrow and Henschke propose that the manned-unmanned teams of the future are more likely to be minotaurs—teams of humans under the control, supervision, or command of artificial intelligence. They examine the likely composition of the future force and prompt a necessary conversation about the ethical issues raised by minotaur warfighting. ... MORE

“The Case for an Army Stability Professional”
April 5, 2023 — The US Army is unprepared to occupy and stabilize territory because it does not adequately educate active-duty officers to do so. One way to professionalize the Army’s ability to carry out military government and stability operations is to develop active-duty functional area officers who can advise commanders and integrate staff planning for these operations. In this episode, author Andrew Colvin analyzes case studies, doctrine, and commentary to envision specialized staff officers with foreign language proficiency, cultural skills, advanced academic abilities, and a strong professional ethic. These officers would enhance the Army’s competence in stabilizing territory to achieve American policy objectives. ... MORE