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Oct. 4, 2024

Understanding the PRC’s Selective Use of Military Hotlines

By Jake Rinaldi

Executive Summary:

  • The PRC’s strategic use of and reluctance to establish military hotlines reflect a calculated approach to escalation risk, which can be seen in crises ranging from the accidental bombing of its embassy in Belgrade in 1999 to the present day. There is a recognition that hotlines offer tactical benefits, but they are not viewed as a solution to the broader challenges in US-PRC relations.
  • The PRC is largely skeptical of military hotlines, believing that they lack utility and could potentially undermine its national security. Defense scholars fear that the existence of a mechanism to de-escalate crises could embolden adversaries to take more risks, and doubt that hotlines can help mitigate long-term mistrust in bilateral relations.
  • Beijing also perceived some benefits of military hotlines. These include enhancing safety and crisis management, enabling the political signaling of intentions, and improving the PRC’s reputation as a responsible power, as well as allowing it to control narratives and influence other states’ actions.

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Image source: Xi Jinping met with representatives of the 78th Group Army officers and soldiers, via qstheory from article (https://jamestown.org/program/understanding-the-prcs-selective-use-of-military-hotlines/)