The sabotage of undersea communications cables in the Baltic Sea by the cargo ship Yi Peng 3 is only the latest in a series of asymmetric attacks against Western interests and infrastructure that appear to be connected in one way or another to Moscow. The Kremlin has clearly ratcheted up efforts to intimidate and coerce Europe, hoping to frustrate—and ultimately force an end to—Western support for Ukraine. But what if Putin orders his minions to turn the temperature up even more?
It could all start if Putin senses the right opportunity, such as an increasing American indifference toward Europe. Putin may seize the moment and seek to clear the Europeans from the field as well, before any new aid package materializes on the battlefields of Ukraine. Ironically, a major effort by Europeans to fill the Ukraine assistance gap created by the Americans might function as a red cape does in the bullring—goading the aggressor to charge.
To date, Russian hybrid operations against European targets have generally focused on the infrastructure, entities, and countries most closely tied to Ukraine’s war effort—an assassination plot against the CEO of Germany’s leading defense contractor sending arms to Ukraine, an explosion at a Bulgarian ammo depot owned by a company that supplies Ukraine, and attempts to sabotage Polish rail lines used to send military equipment to Ukraine.
Keywords: Europe-Russia, Bulgaria, Russia, Poland, Germany, Ukraine