The Strategic Research & Analysis Department (SRAD) would like to share our analysis and insights on the strategic environment and geopolitical events from the past quarter.
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Quarterly Highlights:
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Strategic Rivalries: How Are They Won?
Dr. Antulio J. Echevarria II
Parameters, The US Army War College Quarterly
This article argues defeating a strategic rival— such as China, Russia, or Iran—will require a comprehensive, grand strategic approach similar to containment or preclusion, or a combination of the two.
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Warden’s Five Rings and Regime Change in Iran
Dr. Jacob Stoil
War Room
This article uses Warden’s model as a framework to explain why decapitation strikes have not destabilized the regime in Iran and what type of targets would succeed.
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Guatemala’s Security Challenges and the Government Response: An Update
Dr. R. Evan Ellis
Florida International University
This article addresses Guatemala's security challenges, focusing on narcotrafficking, gang violence, and corruption within public institutions. It also examines the difficulties faced by President Arevalo's government in tackling these issues.
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The US needs Europe in a Taiwan fight. Here’s why, and how to make it happen
Dr. John Deni (and Alexander Lekarev)
Breaking Defense
This article highlights the importance of US collaboration with European allies in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, emphasizing that European nations possess valuable military, political, and economic capabilities that could support the US efforts against China.
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Peru’s Political Crisis Shows How China Could Militarily Use the Port of Chancay Against the US
Dr. R. Evan Ellis
The Diplomat
This article highlights a significant strategic risk in Peru for the United States and the region.
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Is There Still a Path for an international Security Force in Gaza
Dr. Jacob Stoil
MITVIM
This policy paper examines the US twenty-point peace plan that marked the end of the Gaza War and suggests taking an indirect approach for the International Security Force in Gaza.
SRAD Podcasts of Interest:
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On Iran
Dr. Jacob Stoil and MAJ Brennan Deveraux
SSI Live
This episode of SSI Live discusses the ongoing operations against Iran. The conversation explores the historical context of tensions with Iran and examines current and futures challenges that region may face in light of recent events.
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On Venezuela
Dr. R. Evan Ellis and MAJ Brennan Deveraux
SSI Live
This episode of SSI Live discusses the strategic implications of the recent US operation in Venezuela. The conversation explores the regional reactions to the capture of Nicolás Maduro, potential long-term impacts on foreign military sales, and how extra hemispheric actors may recalibrate their engagement in Latin America in response to renewed US focus and pressure.
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The National Defense Strategy
COL Michael Long, LTC Loris Lepri, and MAJ Brennan Deveraux
SSI Live
In this episode of SSI Live, Major Brennan Deveraux interviews Army Strategists Colonel Michael Long and Lieutenant Colonel Loris Lepri to get their take on the recently released National Defense Strategy. The conversation explores the importance of the strategic document and is structured around its four lines of effort.
Meet the SRAD Team:
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Dr. John Deni is a Research Professor of Joint, Interagency, Intergovernmental, & Multinational focused on Europe and NATO for SSI, a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, and a Nonresident Associate Fellow at the NATO Defense College. Bio. Contact.
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Major Brennan Deveraux is a US Army Strategist serving as a national security researcher for SSI. Bio.
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Dr. Antulio Echevarria is a Professor of Strategic Competition. He is a graduate of the US Military Academy, the US Army CGSC, and the US Army War College. Bio. Contact.
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Dr. Evan Ellis is the Latin America Research Professor and General Douglas Macarthur Research Chair for SSI, with a focus on the region’s relationships with China and other non-Western Hemisphere actors. Bio. Contact.
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Dr. Richard Lacquement is a Research Professor of the Military Profession in USAWC's SSI and is the Director of the National Security Policy Program. Bio. Contact.
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Dr. Michael Lynch is Research Professor of National Security Affairs for SSI and associate professor at the US Army War College. Bio. Contact.
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Lieutenant Colonel Paul J. Milas is a US Army Sub-Saharan Africa foreign area officer and the director of African affairs for SSI. Bio. Contact.
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Dr. Jacob Stoil is the Research Professor of Middle East Security for SSI and serves as Chair of Applied History at the Modern War Institute, and Trustee of the US Commission on Military History. Bio. Contact.
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