Brennan Deveraux and Mike Lynch
In this episode of SSI Live, Major Brennan Deveraux interviews Dr. Michael Lynch on his involvement with the Selective Service System. The conversation explores the history of the military draft and the contemporary challenges of implementing a modern-day draft to support a large-scale war.
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John Deni
Hello and welcome to
SSI Live. You’ve long known the Strategic Studies Institute, or SSI, at the US Army War College, as the go-to location for issues related to national security and military strategy, with an emphasis on geostrategic analysis. SSI conducts strategic research and analysis to support the US Army War College curricula; assist and inform Army, DoD, and US government leadership; and serve as a bridge to the wider strategic community. Now, we are bringing you access to SSI analyses, scholars, and guests, through this, the
SSI Live podcast series. Thanks for joining us.
Brennan Deveraux
Welcome back to
SSI Live. I’m your host, Major Brennan Deveraux. Still waiting on John Deni and his awesome book that’s going to come out of that sabbatical. I’m joined today by Dr. Mike Lynch. He’s a national security research professor with me over at the Strategic Studies Institute. Mike covers a myriad of topics in his research, from homeland defense to force structure and mobilization. He retired from the US Army in 2005 and subsequently earned his PhD in history at Temple University.
For this conversation, we’re going to be exploring the Army War College’s relationship with the Selective Service System and Mike’s role as the liaison to this often-overlooked organization. Mike, before we jump into the Selective Service System, can you just talk to me a little bit about your background and how that helped you land this unique role of working with the Selective Service System?
Mike Lynch
Sure, Brennan, and thanks for the opportunity to do this. I started researching mobilization when I arrived here as a civilian in 2005. But it actually goes back before that. My interest goes back before that. In 2002, while I was still on active duty, I was fortunate enough to attend a conference sponsored by the US Army War College. I was not at the War College at the time.
But it was in Paris. And it brought together the armies of the United States. Great Britain, France, and Germany. And the purpose of that was to help Germany figure out how to end conscription. It’s interesting that Germany is now thinking about restarting conscription, but from that it gave me an interest in in mobilization generally in conscription specifically.
Deveraux
Okay. So, you had a, a couple of opportunities. You started looking at mobilization when you got here as a civilian research professor, historian. Talk to me about how you then kind of stumbled your way into working specifically with the Selective Service System.
Lynch
So I had done a couple of studies on how the Army has mobilized in the past. And one issue was the Army’s strategic planning guidance of 2012 seemed to be very inadequate in terms of what we would need to do to build a large army. So, I did a, a study called “The Myths of Expansibility,” and sort of surveyed how we’ve expanded in the past.
And that was in 2014. And then in 2024, purely by happy chance, I happened to be walking into the, to Root Hall, the US Army War College school building, and I ran into a group of people who were having a conference in one of our multi-purpose rooms. I actually helped somebody find the room, and it turned out that it was the Selective Service System staff here, doing an offsite at Carlisle Barracks in preparation for a Gettysburg staff ride.
When I discovered that it was the Selective Service System, I talked to them a little bit about the research I had done in the past, and they got very interested and it rolled on from there. They invited me to several workshops and those kinds of things.
Deveraux
So real quick, if we could take a step back. The Selective Service System. So not an organization too many people are that familiar with, maybe the older generation for different reasons. For a lot of the younger generation, that’s, a thing of the past, right? We’re an all-volunteer force. There is no draft. Can you talk a little bit about the Selective Service System? Kind of what it is, who it falls under? Because this was a unique thing for me to learn. I thought it was different than it is. And then kind of how it still exists today. And what its purpose is.
Lynch
Right. And that, that’s a great question, Brennan, because, to be perfectly honest, I did not know that we still had a Selective Service System until I ran into it. I thought that would be generated in, in case of war or whatever. But the Selective Service System, going back throughout the history of the 20th century wars, particularly World War Two and forward, the Selective Service System is the organization that runs the draft to conscript people to go into the military.
Now its current form is very small. I don’t know what the total number of Selective Service employees is, but it is very, very small. And it’s designed to expand, to much larger in the event that we go to, go to a draft. It is a standalone organization, does not belong to the Department of War. And it is a, as we would say in the military, it’s a direct report to the president, so.
Deveraux
And I think we at least have some aspect of it exists, it’s this nebulous thing because all young men, and I specifically used the word men because it’s still, I know that’s been, are still required to register. I remember having to do this as a thing, right? You register when you turn 18, it comes up in forms later ensuring that you did register, you know, 20 years ago for a, and I joke because I’m in the Army.
So yes, I registered. But also like, “don’t worry about it.” I did my paperwork, right. So, it at least exists and I think they’re, they’re moving to a more electronic aspect of how they do things from, you know, when I first registered. But it’s kind of existed there in the background. I don’t think many people think about it because we’re not thinking about a draft, which is a scary concept.
But if we look at what’s going on in Europe with the war in Ukraine, the type of casualties we could have in a large-scale war, that, you know, hopefully we never have to fight, the all-volunteer force might not be enough to get through it.
Lynch
That’s correct.
Deveraux
Okay. And so one of the first things you got to do with the Selective Service is actually go out to their organization and kind of see, I want to say how the old-school, lottery works, but I think it’s fairly similar today than it was way back when.
Lynch
It is, it is. And it’s important to note, Brennan, that, even though we’re talking about the draft, the draft requires an act of Congress to restart. So, this is background study and research in case. But there is no push to restart a draft. But you’re correct. I was invited to go to what the Selective Service System calls a lottery exercise. And that is literally how the lottery process operates. The lottery being what, how we generate the names.
Now, I can break this down. One of the things that the Selective Service is required to do is provide a fair and transparent process because of abuses in the past of the deferment system, that sort of thing. It’s important to provide a fair and transparent process. So there are observers there who will watch everything that happens. And it’s ultimately fair because it’s simply based on birthdays. The lottery is called a lottery exercise because they use lottery machines that are identical to the state lottery machines that you may see on Friday night drawing Powerball numbers, a series of…
Deveraux
Like the bingo wheel.
Lynch
Exactly, exactly.
Deveraux
It’s for that for those that don’t necessarily do the lottery, that’s all I’m envisioning is someone spinning the giant cage and pulling out the ball.
Lynch
That’s essentially it. And in that case, there are two giant cages. In one giant cage. You have all the birthdays from January 1st to December 31st, including February 29th. And then in the other giant cage, you have 366 balls. So you would turn those cages and two balls come out. And for instance, my birthday is May 28th, and if that that ball comes out of one cage and the other cage, the ball comes out 15, then I would be in the 15th draft call for that period.
Deveraux
Okay. No. That’s neat. To your point, no one’s reinstituting the draft soon, right? But this has been going on consistently. I mean, for generations, correct? Since before, Vietnam, which is when we really associate ourselves with the draft and I think, if I have my history right, there’s only about maybe a four-year period once we transitioned out of the draft into an all-volunteer force where we stopped registering, and then, it got reinstituted, I believe that was under President Ford.
Lynch
Correct. The registration stopped in 1975, and then that was, President Ford, and then, restarted, I believe it was under President Ford, but then stopped again and then restarted again under President Carter. It was re-stopped and started for a brief period of time, but registration was restarted in time for me to register in 1980.
And then, it lapsed for, a few months or a year and then came back in in 1981. And to your point, when I was in regular Army basic training as a private at Fort Dix, New Jersey, in May of 1981, one of the pieces of mail my mother sent me was a reminder from Selective Service that I needed to register.
Yeah. So, I thought that was, that was funny.
Deveraux
Yeah. So, there’s memes out now, that are exactly that. That kind of moment, because you’re sitting there thinking when you got that letter is like, you already got me, right? Yeah. There’s memes floating around of Army recruiters sending out a text message to, you know, potential candidate and there, like, “hey, you know, you’d be really great for this. Have you thought about service?” And the response back from the service member, you know, of all sorts of services, like, “they already got me,” was like, “oh, I appreciate it, but,” you know, like a picture of them out at sea, it’s like “been a sailor for four years.”
Lynch
Right, right.
Deveraux
But yeah, they’ll definitely keep trying.
Lynch
I fielded recruiters calls for my, for my kids, two of whom were already in the military when they call[ed]. Yeah.
Deveraux
Oh. That’s funny. Well, I mean, it’s the right target audience.
Lynch
Right, right. Exactly.
Deveraux
Okay. So, another thing that kind of stood out to me when we’ve been talking about the Selective Service System, because I did a little bit of research with you, you did a project, or supervised a project, with a student that looked at something called the “medical draft.” So, again, we’re back dating before we really think about the draft, which I think most Americans think about the draft, they think about Vietnam.
But before that, there’s a unique specialized draft. I mean, there’s a draft in general. It’s not that this was the only draft, but there’s one that we don’t talk about a whole lot. And that’s this medical draft. Can you talk very briefly about that.
Lynch
Yes. That’s the Health Care Personnel Delivery System or Draft System. I forget which. But it was instituted, I believe, in 1950 and ran through 1962, and it was specifically designed to draft doctors and nurses to, to serve in the Korean War. That continued well after the war in peacetime, as I mentioned. And we’re now starting to look at the possibility, what would we have to do if we did that again?
And as you mentioned, I had a student, two years ago who studied that as part of his research requirement here on exactly how we would go about drafting medical professionals specifically.
Deveraux
And then historically, this is a very good place to do that research, because the Army Heritage Center has ample records on this.
Lynch
It is, when you go further back in, in draft history, the really, the big drafts that we’ve heard about the first draft by Congress, authorized by Congress, 1862, and we had another draft for World War One. And then in 1940, we had the big draft that helped us build the Army for World War Two. The director of the Selective Service System for, I think, 29 years, I think during and after the war up until the 1970s, was Louis B Hershey. And his papers are at the US Army Heritage and Education Center, and they are an absolutely unbelievable trove of valuable information on how we’ve done drafts in the past. And to date, it is really, has not been plumbed as well as it could be.
Deveraux
Okay. Yeah. No, I, I got a chance to look at just a few of the documents in there. We sat down together and found it fascinating, and I didn’t think that it was an Army thing, but it happened to be an Army general, so his papers ended up here. So, really convenient for those working on their, their projects at the time, studying the draft, which we’re discovering is a relevant topic again.
So if we could jump to kind of how the Selective Service System now has started integrating with the War College, about a year ago or so, there was a big exercise here. Can you talk a little bit about how you fit into that and how we kind of got this relationship really rolling?
Lynch
Sure. And if I could back up a little bit. After I attended that lottery exercise at Selective Service headquarters, two weeks later, I attended a delivery exercise at the US Military Entrance Processing Command at Naval Station Great Lakes. USMEPCOM is the agency that is responsible for receiving all of those soldiers or all those inductees. So the Selective Service…
Deveraux
If I could just real quick, you said Soldiers and then took a step back inductee. So, the Selective Service, they’re looking holistically at personnel numbers. Then it’s transitioning and being broken down by someone else for soldiers, airman, marines, sailor. Things along those lines.
Lynch
That’s correct. And it’s important to note that the Selective Service System is responsible for availability. The Department of War is responsible for acceptability. So, the Selective Service will provide a large number of names. And then it’s up to the military to figure out who goes where and who, who is qualified for what positions and those sort of things.
Deveraux
And there is, I know that we have our standards right now for the all-volunteer force. And there’s a bunch of, you can find an article very easily that that says X number of percent of the US population is not qualified for service. But when we look at those potential candidates if we need a million-man army kind of thing, there’s some congressional limitations on how strict the current organization can be, to kind of funnel that out, right? There’s some things that allow more of the population to be potentially able to serve.
Lynch
That’s true to a point. Let me address the issue of how many are available. There’s a lot of unfounded, tribal wisdom, if you will, about who is not eligible to serve. I first started hearing about “this generation” in air quotes, “the kids today” are not eligible to serve because they’re too fat. They’re too lazy. They’re whatever. I started hearing about that around the turn of the century. That generation is already serving. So, when we dig into that, we find that there’s very little math that actually goes with it.
And when you look at the gross numbers in World War Two, we drafted 16 million, and of those we put 8 million, we put 10 million in uniform, 8 million of whom were in the Army. So, there are, you can grasp from that that we’re still at a little bit over a 1 to 2 relationship, for what we drafted versus what went in. That was on a population of 150 million. We have 330 million now. So, I’m confident that we could draft whomever and whatever we wanted.
But to your point about how we define what is acceptable for the Army, I’m not sure about the other services. I just know this from some other research that one of my students is working on for the Army. There is a constant monitoring of what waivers, what medical waivers are authorized now, what can be, should be those kinds of things. And this goes on, on a routine cyclic basis. So, we can adjust as needed. If and when the time comes.
Deveraux
I think it’s really interesting. For those who listened to the last SSI live podcast with Dr. Lacquement, we had a conversation about the changing character of war and what a modern-day soldier potentially needs to do. As we look at Ukraine. We look at drone fighting. I mean, we joke about, you know, those kids sitting around on their video games. Well, a lot of war might be some people sitting around in a tent somewhere on a video game. So, you know what we define as a soldier, airman, marine, those things like that for a future battle, especially if we’re talking about, you know, a large-scale conflict. I think we definitely shape kind of how we’re setting those standards.
But. So, if we could jump back in. So, we’re now, we’re at the War College, we’re building up that relationship with the Selective Service System about a year ago, we really start pushing on, gaining some understanding for the Department of War. Can you talk a little bit about that?
Lynch
Right. So, after those two exercises, the Selective Service asked us if we could help, asked us, the War College, if we could help define some of the problem and maybe answer some of their, their questions. And so, I linked Selective Service up with the Department of Strategic Wargaming at the Center for Strategic Leadership. And they put together some modeling to help the Selective Service work through some of these issues.
It’s not, the Selective Service has really been driving the train on, on getting the Department of War to look at these things. But most of the issues that we’ve been looking at from a modeling standpoint are not Selective Service issues. There are things the Department of War needs to figure out. So, as we’ve had workshops, we brought in, at the time, what was US Army TRADOC, Training Doctrine Command.
We brought some modelers from West Point, from the Army staff, from the Office of the Secretary of Defense and, and USMEPCOM to talk about all these issues. Yes.
Deveraux
MEPCOM?
Lynch
MEPCOM. I’m sorry again, is the Military Entrance and Processing Command that will ultimately take all these soldiers to begin with. We ran that workshop in January of last year, and then it led to a couple more workshops that we did in April, the first one. And what Selective Service also does is try to bring in as many of its different branches and divisions as it can to get other perspectives on these questions.
And at that point, we modeled what this process might look like. I say we, I can’t say enough good about the Department of Strategic Wargaming and Center for Strategic Leadership on all of the things that they do. In December of last year, 2025, we also participated in a Selective Service exercise that focused on just the public and interagency mission of the Selective Service.
But it was helpful for both them and us, for us to participate, to give them an outside perspective on the sorts of things that will have to go on.
Deveraux
Okay. And amongst all this, you’re still maintaining your role as a professor here. You have kind of brought in some students to help. So, I’m tracking you developed an integrated research project. For those who don’t know, we’ve talked about it before, this idea of a faculty-led, so a faculty or 2 or 3, student-driven, so the students who are conducting their, their research, their graduation requirement research, are writing pretty much chapters of an edited volume and then an external-sponsored, we often say DoD-sponsored or, Department of War sponsored, but Selective Service System is a viable sponsor as well. And you guys have put together a project that’s ongoing for the Selective Service System. Can you talk a little bit about, kind of the project’s intent and what you’re hoping to do with it?
Lynch
Sure. The project is called “Army Force Generation for Great Power Conflict,” and I’ve modified that a little bit to just “Force Generation.” I’ll tell you what that’s all about in a minute. I recruited students out of this year’s Army War College class, which includes resident students and US Army War College fellows who are operating in institutions and…
Deveraux
Other universities.
Lynch
Other universities. And what I did was, what I wanted them to do is based on their expertise. I wanted them to take a slice of the problem and, and identify, from that, what it looks like in a longitudinal fashion. For instance, I want medical people to look at medical issues, legal people to look at legal issues and that sort of thing.
Deveraux
And this is voluntary. So you don’t…
Lynch
It’s voluntary.
Deveraux
You don’t go to again, go up to the dean and say, “I’m taking all the lawyers who come this year.”
Lynch
That’s right, that’s right.
Deveraux
So you put together a pitch, you teamed up with another faculty member, you put it out to the students. How many students did you get to sign up?
Lynch
So I got eight total students, and fellow, Army War College fellows. But what is unique and different this year is I also got two students from the US Army Sergeant Major Academy. This is, again, serendipity plays a role in everything. This fall, as we were putting this together, the US Army War College was beginning its transition to the Army University.
And as we had the heads of all the schools here to discuss that, I mentioned to the commandant of the US Army NCO Academy that we would like to have an NCO perspective on this because, my thought was, how do we draft a large army without destroying the best NCO corps in the world? And so that, the commandant was very excited about that.
And I was quickly called by a student who’s interested in doing that, and he’s actually doing research. A couple of weeks later…
Deveraux
So I’m actually really curious, and you might not know it offhand, but the two sergeants major, if either of them were prior recruiters or prior drill sergeants, so really looking at that, you know, population that comes into the force, right?
Lynch
I don’t believe they were, and I actually, I have one Army master sergeant who’s looking at its effect on the NCO corps. But then I got a call a couple weeks later from a senior master sergeant from the Air Force who’s also in that Sergeant Major Academy class. And he is looking at how we would draft for the technical services. His background is all Air Force except for the last three years when he worked for the Space Force. So, he is going to bring in an interesting perspective. And that’s why I made it “Force Generation” and not just Army generation.
Deveraux
And that probably has echoes to what we talked about before with the medical draft, right? Can we find a niche capability, whether that capability is medical or skills with artificial intelligence or engineering? You could probably do a lot of research historically and try to apply that forward.
Lynch
That’s right. And that’s actually when one of the things that one of the, a couple of students are looking at, is how, what special skills do we need? And first, the first thing that has to happen is the Department of War has to define what those skills are. And then we have to figure out how many of them we need.
And then, it’s Selective Service’s mission to draft for those specific, skill sets. The problem is, remember that it’s supposed to be a fair, equitable, and transparent draft. If you go to specialization, that takes part of that out. So again, it’s back to Congress. Can we do this legally?
Deveraux
Well, I think you have the precedent with the medical draft. And I think that there’s still a medical-type plan on file, looking specifically at, you know, that aspect of it. I think there, and we’ve had this conversation before, I think there are different challenges because you would only be able to specialize through like a profession.
So it would be much easier to apply that plan to say, lawyers, who have a, you know, a database and certifications and things like that that you can pull versus, “hey, when I’m 18, I filled out my card. Also, by the way, I’m good at, you know, computer programing.” That’s not, there’s not a box to check for that.
How do you know that? So, I think that creates different aspects of it for identifying people, not just the legality to your point, but actually physically doing it. You know, unless there like “hey, be forthcoming. We’re looking for these people.” At that point, you might as well be recruiting for volunteers and throwing bonuses.
Lynch
And interesting you should mention that, because that’s exactly what one of the students who is a lawyer is, is working on is, first of all, can we adjust the registration system such that we can say, cyber qualified or whatever? Because if we do draft that person, we want that, you know, it’s then the Army’s problem to figure out, okay, we want him in the infantry. We don’t want him in the infantry. We want him in the, in the cyber domain somewhere or in Cyber Corps.
Deveraux
The problem is, when you’re registering versus what you’re doing in your life are potentially two very different points in time, right? So, the medical draft is not looking at getting 18- and 19-year-olds, right, when it was doing it. We’re looking at people who have gone to medical school and residency. You know, you’re a nurse. We’re doing, so things that aren’t when I’m initially filling out my document.
And I think that we don’t have to keep going on. But I think that’s a unique aspect when you say, I want someone who’s cyber trained, do we have or should we have some sort of government certification? A federal certification to conduct these unique skills provides an avenue to say, “here’s a list of people qualified to conduct these skills.” And maybe it’s incentivized, but if you have the federal certifications, you know, you get, a tax write off every year, you know, something that enables it, because convincing, or even if you can convince them, getting the 18-year old to give you his, you know, future qualifications just isn’t necessarily feasible.
Lynch
There’s also another challenge for that. The registration age group is 18 to 26, but Selective Service’s mission now under the current Military Selective Service Act, which would have to be amended or completely overturned, but the current mission is to draft 20-year-olds. So, after they draft all of the 20-year-olds in the next year, 20-year-olds.
So you’re right. You register at 18 and then at 26, you’re a doctor, but there might not be any visibility of that. Or you’re 20-years old headed for medical school. You know what? There are a lot of a, lot of things to work out with that. And you’re correct. It may be that you can keep updating that process as you go along.
You had no skills and you’re building skills. There’s an incentive for that in that maybe you get a bonus if you were going to enlist instead of being drafted, or maybe you go in as an officer or something like that. Funny you should mention doctors and nurses and lawyers. Those are the only three that have national…
Deveraux
Right! And that makes it hard. And I, I laugh at the age thing because, again, the, you know, the catalyst for a really hard conversation on this isn’t just an abstract paper that sparked imagination. It’s, there’s a giant large-scale conflict in Europe like we haven’t seen for 50 plus years.
Lynch
Exactly.
Deveraux
So you look to Ukraine and you could even look to Russia. Russia’s less open about it. But you look to Ukraine, and they’re not out there saying, “give me the 18- to 26-year-old men.” They’re saying, “give me the able and the willing,” and then maybe, “give me the able,” and it to the far end of “I’m taking who I can,” as they make it happen.
So as we look at the shift of what are we drafting for, I think really drives, you know, how the draft and what we need to study, versus an abstract.
Lynch
That’s right.
Deveraux
But I’ll shift it over to you. So, we talked about Selective Service System. We talked about the project you’re working with the school. What’s next for you in general? Any big projects or [things] listeners should be looking out for, as you’re kind of either moving stuff to completion or, you know, something that’s just you got it up here and you got to put it down on paper eventually.
Lynch
Well, with this, with this series of papers, we’re going to have, we’re going to publish this as a monograph, hopefully in the summer after, after the school year. And I need to add that I have a fellow faculty member here who’s working with me on this, Dr. Kasturi Kannan, who is our professor of data science here.
And what he is going to try to do is he’s doing research, writing a chapter on how you would model some of the really large number kinds of things, for instance, going back to that, how many are eligible versus how many we can get in uniform. How can we narrow that down and figure out exactly what the ratio is of inductee, or of Selectee to inductee?
I didn’t define that before, but Selective Service gives selectees, the Army, the military, has inductees. So how do you bridge that gap? So, we’re going to publish this in, as I said, in the summer when all the chapters are finished and, and, I hope that’ll, that’ll be a big thing. So that’s, that’s what’s related to this.
I have other things that are going on besides this.
Deveraux
So, so real quick on, on that. I think you’re very aspirational with the summer. So for listeners, I’m sure you’ll see it pop, but it’s probably going to pop late fall. I appreciate the hopes and aspirations, but it, it’s a process. It takes time. And I have at least one friend I know who is going to pick it up and give it a look because he’s going to work his dissertation on stuff about the Selective Service, and I’ll probably link him in with you. I will give you a 30-second shout out if you got any other projects you want to tell the world about, not Selective Service related, before I close it out here.
Lynch
Absolutely. It’s somewhat related to this, but slightly different. That paper on the selective, sort of the health care draft, actually grew out of another project that I’ve been working on. It’s coming to fruition right now, and it’s a monograph called
Beyond Capacity: How the Army Medical System Will Support Large-Scale Combat Operations.
And it looks specifically at Army, but we have a series of nine chapters in that one, in that monograph, in which medical professionals studied various aspects of, large-scale combat operations. The results, if we get what is projected to be as possibly as high as 1000 casualties a day, what does that do to the medical system in the United States?
So, looking at the military medical system, the veterans, Veterans Administration Health System, and the civilian medical system, so that is, it’s a pretty holistic view of what happens in the event that things get as bad as they can be and that, that is in final editing now and should come out this spring.
Deveraux
Okay. Something to look forward to. I’ll definitely check it out. And that’ll come on the US Army War College website. I hope that we are never in a situation where your research is directly applicable to anything we got going on. I would love to never have a draft again. I have three boys, and god a thousand casualties a day for us is unimaginable. That’s just not how our generation has lived. Scary to even think about.
But, Mike, thanks for the time. I think this is really great. It’s something we don’t talk about enough, and it’s something people need to at least be aware of. Maybe not overthink and spook themselves as we said at the beginning, there’s not a draft coming, do your form when you turn 18. But, you know, hopefully the next big war is still a long ways away or forever away.
Okay, listeners, thanks for the time. For more Army War College podcasts, check out
Decisive Point,
Conversations on Strategy,
CLSC Dialogues, and
A Better Peace.
Deni
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