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July 22, 2024

China, the Illiberal Counter-Order, and the Role of Values in the Strategic Response

By R. Evan Ellis

The dynamics of the international order in the third decade of the 21st Century are changing profoundly.  The magnitude and complexity of the change are illustrated by Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, in both its initial failure, and in the ability of the Putin administration in Russia to sustain its costly campaign.  The new international dynamics are further illustrated by Iran’s ability to sustain a proxy campaign against Israel and moderate Arab nations in the Middle East, as well as by the failure of actions by Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Israel to escalate into a broader conflict.  In Latin America, the new dynamics are highlighted by the ability of the authoritarian populist regime in Venezuela to threaten military action against its neighbor Guyana over the Essequibo territory, without a firm response by the United States, Venezuela’s neighbor Brazil, or other states in the region.  Finally, the new dynamics are illustrated by the increasingly aggressive posture by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) against Taiwan, as well as by its assertion of maritime territorial claims in the South and East China sea and its increasingly confrontational military posture toward the U.S. and allied militaries in the region.

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