Recent Publications

It’s (Still) More Expensive to Rotate Military Forces Overseas than Base Them There
December 19, 2024 — In mid-2020, then-President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to withdraw roughly one-third of US forces from Germany, reportedly because of policy differences with Berlin. Given how long it would take to implement such a significant change in overseas posture, the clock ran out on his term before the Department of Defense could complete it. With... MORE

It’s (still) more expensive to rotate military forces overseas than base them there | By John R. Deni

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-Order
November 14, 2024 — The 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan solidified an anti-liberal «counter-order,» challenging the rules-based international system. With its expansion to 23 members, the bloc, financially led by China, seeks to evade global restrictions and advance its agendas, though it faces coordination challenges and diverse objectives among its members. ... MORE

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-Order | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment (Podcast)
October 2, 2024 — In this episode of Conversations on Strategy, Dr. C. Anthony Pfaff, Dr. Brian Carlson, Dr. Michael Lynch, Dr. John Deni, and analyze the 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment, led by Major Brennan Deveraux. The discussion covers the narrative’s impact on understanding military challenges, with regional perspectives from Carlson on the US-China rivalry, Deni on the Russia-Ukraine War’s... MORE

COVER Conversations on Strategy Podcast – Ep 49 – Darrin L. Frye – “Nanoweaponry and the Resolution Revolution: Making Danger Invisible”

2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
July 24, 2024 — The United States faces a complex and ever-changing global environment. The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment is designed to guide the collective defense community to research and write about critical national security challenges to help the Army prepare for a wide range of potential conflicts and threats... MORE

The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment sets the foundation for cutting-edge research to understand the ever-evolving security environment domestically and internationally.

On Coalition of the unWilling and unAble: European Realignment and the Future of American Geopolitics
June 5, 2024 — In episode 8, COL Rich Butler and Dr. John Deni discuss Deni's book Coalition of the unWilling and unAble: European Realignment and the Future of American Geopolitics. The conversation addresses Europe's relationship with China and what it means for America and the rest of the world. ... MORE

75 years in, NATO Remains As Vital As Ever to American Life
April 4, 2024 — As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and insufficiently focused on America’s main adversary, China.These critiques are to some degree understandable. NATO’s age obscures the... MORE

As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and insufficiently focused on America’s main adversary, China.
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4572959-75-years-in-nato-remains-as-vital-as-ever-to-american-life/

At 75, NATO Is Still Worth the Price
April 4, 2024 — Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance.The North Atlantic Alliance should justifiably mark the seventy-fifth year since its founding, but this may not be the time to pop champagne corks.NATO has... MORE

Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance.

“Ukraine: The Case for Urgency”
March 27, 2024 — If the United States and its allies seek to deny Vladimir Putin an objective victory in the Russia-Ukraine War, they must commit to providing sufficient aid to the Ukrainian army soon because the window of opportunity to provide sufficient resources is narrow—and closing. This article argues that the West must articulate... MORE

Parameters | Spring 2024
March 7, 2024 — The Spring issue is out! In this edition: “Ukraine: A Case for Urgency” by Anthony L. Tingle and Rebecca W. Jensen and “Strategic Art for Sanctions” by David Katz; SRAD DIRECTOR’S CORNER “Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: A Report from NATO's COE-DAT”; For the latest on the Indo-Pacific, Strategic Thinking, the Middle East, and even the US Civil War check out the new issue... MORE

On The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
November 22, 2023 — The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic... MORE

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
August 24, 2023 — The United States operates within a global context that is increasingly complex, interconnected, and unpredictable. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide to define broadly the contemporary security landscape and the diverse range of interests that shape our national security agenda... MORE

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/962/

What Ukraine Taught NATO about Hybrid Warfare
November 9, 2022 — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 forced the United States and its NATO partners to be confronted with the impact of hybrid warfare far beyond the battlefield. Targeting Europe’s energy security, Russia’s malign influence campaigns and malicious cyber intrusions are affecting global gas prices, driving up food costs, disrupting supply chains and... MORE