Recent Publications

Book Review: Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power
December 18, 2025 — In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Poland has emerged as the strategic anchor of NATO’s eastern flank, reshaping the continent’s security landscape. Janusz Bugajski explores how Warsaw’s military modernization, economic resilience, and assertive diplomacy have positioned it as a rising power capable of countering Russian imperialism and leading regional defense efforts. This timely and incisive book reveals Poland’s transformation from a peripheral actor to a pivotal force in Europe’s evolving geopolitical order... MORE

Cover of Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power

The Economic Argument for Keeping US Forces in Europe
August 15, 2025 — NATO’s Hague summit earlier this summer has generally been viewed as a qualified success, despite — or perhaps because of — its unusually short and focused agenda. The new 5 percent defense spending commitment deserves most of the credit for this perception, but there’s no escaping the conclusion that the lack of major disruptions also explains why... MORE

Slide for The Economic Argument for Keeping US Forces in Europe

Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
July 9, 2025 — The United States faces a complex and ever-changing global environment. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment is designed to guide the collective defense community to research and write about critical national security challenges to help the Army prepare for a wide range of potential conflicts and threats... MORE

Slide for the Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

Don’t waste this crisis, Europe: consolidate your defense industry
April 15, 2025 — Turn your excess national defense champions into continental ones.Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and questions about the American commitment to NATO have cast a spotlight on European efforts to safeguard security on the continent. But today, the major hurdles confronting Europe are no longer defense spending and industrial capacity. At both the... MORE

Don’t waste this crisis, Europe: consolidate your defense industry | Dr. John R. Deni

It’s (Still) More Expensive to Rotate Military Forces Overseas than Base Them There
December 19, 2024 — In mid-2020, then-President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to withdraw roughly one-third of US forces from Germany, reportedly because of policy differences with Berlin. Given how long it would take to implement such a significant change in overseas posture, the clock ran out on his term before the Department of Defense could complete it. With... MORE

It’s (still) more expensive to rotate military forces overseas than base them there | By John R. Deni

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-Order
November 14, 2024 — The 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan solidified an anti-liberal «counter-order,» challenging the rules-based international system. With its expansion to 23 members, the bloc, financially led by China, seeks to evade global restrictions and advance its agendas, though it faces coordination challenges and diverse objectives among its members. ... MORE

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-Order | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

On Coalition of the unWilling and unAble: European Realignment and the Future of American Geopolitics
June 5, 2024 — In episode 8, COL Rich Butler and Dr. John Deni discuss Deni's book Coalition of the unWilling and unAble: European Realignment and the Future of American Geopolitics. The conversation addresses Europe's relationship with China and what it means for America and the rest of the world. ... MORE

75 years in, NATO Remains As Vital As Ever to American Life
April 4, 2024 — As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and insufficiently focused on America’s main adversary, China.These critiques are to some degree understandable. NATO’s age obscures the... MORE

As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and insufficiently focused on America’s main adversary, China.
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4572959-75-years-in-nato-remains-as-vital-as-ever-to-american-life/

At 75, NATO Is Still Worth the Price
April 4, 2024 — Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance.The North Atlantic Alliance should justifiably mark the seventy-fifth year since its founding, but this may not be the time to pop champagne corks.NATO has... MORE

Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance.

“Ukraine: The Case for Urgency”
March 27, 2024 — If the United States and its allies seek to deny Vladimir Putin an objective victory in the Russia-Ukraine War, they must commit to providing sufficient aid to the Ukrainian army soon because the window of opportunity to provide sufficient resources is narrow—and closing. This article argues that the West must articulate... MORE

Parameters | Spring 2024
March 7, 2024 — The Spring issue is out! In this edition: “Ukraine: A Case for Urgency” by Anthony L. Tingle and Rebecca W. Jensen and “Strategic Art for Sanctions” by David Katz; SRAD DIRECTOR’S CORNER “Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: A Report from NATO's COE-DAT”; For the latest on the Indo-Pacific, Strategic Thinking, the Middle East, and even the US Civil War check out the new issue... MORE

On The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
November 22, 2023 — The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic... MORE