Recent Publications

2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
July 24, 2024 — The United States faces a complex and ever-changing global environment. The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment is designed to guide the collective defense community to research and write about critical national security challenges to help the Army prepare for a wide range of potential conflicts and threats... MORE

The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment sets the foundation for cutting-edge research to understand the ever-evolving security environment domestically and internationally.

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
August 24, 2023 — The United States operates within a global context that is increasingly complex, interconnected, and unpredictable. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide to define broadly the contemporary security landscape and the diverse range of interests that shape our national security agenda... MORE

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/962/

Rotational Deployments vs. Forward Stationing: How Can the Army Achieve Assurance and Deterrence Efficiently and Effectively?
August 25, 2017 — Author: Dr John R DeniView the Executive Summary The Army’s force posture is out of balance, with a greater percentage of troops stationed in the United States than at any time since the late 1940s. This has forced an over-reliance on lengthy, continuous rotational deployments to achieve deterrence and assurance in theaters such as northeast Asia... MORE

Strategic Insights: Lost in Translation
August 17, 2017 — Author: Dr M Chris Mason In a change from the Vietnam War—where the U.S. military trained at least 45,000 deploying service members to speak Vietnamese and probably twice that number—for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, apart from some remotely-based intelligence specialists doing classified work, the U.S. military trained almost no deploying... MORE

Transforming the Force: The 11th Air Assault Division (Test) from 1963 to 1965
June 27, 2017 — Author: Brigadier General Thomas C. GravesView the Executive Summary This monograph will answer the question: Can the U.S. Army apply to the current “prototype brigade” the lessons that were learned during the development and experimentation of the 11th Air Assault Division (Test)? Having established that the criteria of DTLOMS is a valuable tool... MORE

Military Contingencies in Megacities and Sub-Megacities
December 1, 2016 — Authors: Mr Werner Selle, Dr Phil WilliamsUrbanization is one of the most important mega-trends of the 21st century. Consequently, the possibility of U.S. military involvement in a megacity or sub-megacity is an eventuality that cannot be ignored. After elucidating the nature of urbanization and developing a typology in terms of smart, fragile, and... MORE

The Hour of Truth: The Conflict in Ukraine–Implications for Europe’s Energy Security and the Lessons for the U.S. Army
November 25, 2015 — Authors: Mr Ivan Benovic, Dr Ariel CohenView the Executive Summary Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, a number of gas disputes between Russia and Central and Eastern European countries have unveiled the strategic dependence of Europe on Russian piped gas. The recent Ukrainian crisis demonstrated that Europe has a desperate need to improve the... MORE

Training Humans for the Human Domain
November 2, 2015 — Authors: Mr Keir Giles, Dr Steve TathamView the Executive Summary Experience from Afghanistan and Iraq has demonstrated the vital nature of understanding human terrain, with conclusions relevant far beyond counterinsurgency operations in the Islamic world. Any situation where adversary actions are described as “irrational” demonstrates a... MORE

A Shared Burden: The Military and Civilian Consequences of Army Pain Management Since 2001
August 4, 2015 — Author: COL Craig TrebilcockView the Executive Summary The Army has an opioid drug problem that is not going away under current personnel policies and medical practices. The survey results recorded here indicate that senior officers attending the U.S. Army War College recognize that the opioid problem is distinct in nature and origin from those of... MORE

NATO Missile Defense and the European Phased Adaptive Approach: The Implications of Burden-Sharing and the Underappreciated Role of the U.S. Army
October 18, 2013 — Authors: Dr John R Deni, Mr Steven J Whitmore View the Executive SummaryIn 2010, NATO decided to expand its ballistic missile defense program, in part because of the American offer to include its European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA) as the centerpiece of an expanded effort. For the Allies' part, few have actually contributed tangible ballistic... MORE

Cartel Car Bombings in Mexico
August 16, 2013 — Authors: Dr Robert J Bunker, Mr John P Sullivan View the Executive SummaryContemporary Mexican cartel use of car bombs began in mid-July 2010 and has since escalated. Given the proximity to the United States, some literally within miles of the border, the car bombings, with about 20 incidents identified over the last 2 1/2 years, should be of... MORE

Colloquium Brief: Learning By Doing: The PLA Trains at Home and Abroad
May 15, 2012 — Recent People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy exercises and operations, such as the Gulf of Aden (GOA) anti-piracy deployment, point to an increasing interest in developing a presence in distant seas and expeditionary naval capabilities. The PLA’s ground force exercises, rather than aiming to intimidate others by demonstrating the ability to project power beyond China’s borders, are most relevant to operations within mainland China; transmilitary region exercises contribute to China's deterrence posture by demonstrating a proven ability to project power to repel an attack while People's Armed Police (PAP) exercises and operations reveal increased capabilities to counter terrorism and control civil unrest... MORE