Recent Publications

2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
July 24, 2024 — The United States faces a complex and ever-changing global environment. The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment is designed to guide the collective defense community to research and write about critical national security challenges to help the Army prepare for a wide range of potential conflicts and threats... MORE

The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment sets the foundation for cutting-edge research to understand the ever-evolving security environment domestically and internationally.

Comparing China’s Engagement in Africa and Latin America
October 21, 2023 — R. Evan Ellis | There are substantial commonalities in Beijing’s engagement between the two regions, but also differences that provide insights into how China-based entities make, and adapt, policies. On October 12-13, 2023, the Jack D. Gordon Institute of Florida International University (FIU) hosted an event bringing together Africa and Latin... MORE

Comparing China’s Engagement in Africa and Latin America
R. Evan Ellis
There are substantial commonalities in Beijing’s engagement between the two regions, but also differences that provide insights into how China-based entities make, and adapt, policies.
https://thediplomat.com/2023/10/comparing-chinas-engagement-in-africa-and-latin-america/

Image credits: Chinese flag from Pexels.com, world map overlay from FreePik.com

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
August 24, 2023 — The United States operates within a global context that is increasingly complex, interconnected, and unpredictable. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide to define broadly the contemporary security landscape and the diverse range of interests that shape our national security agenda... MORE

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/962/

Hidden Dragon, Crouching Lion: How China’s Advance in Africa is Underestimated and Africa’s Potential Underappreciated
September 1, 2012 — Author: Mr David E Brown The explosive growth of China’s economic interests in Africa—bilateral trade rocketed from $1 billion in 1990 to $150 billion in 2011—may be the most important trend in the continent’s foreign relations since the end of the Cold War. In 2010, China surpassed the United States as Africa’s top trading partner; its quest to... MORE

Cover for Hidden Dragon, Crouching Lion: How China's Advance in Africa is Underestimated and Africa's Potential Underappreciated

Security and Stability in Africa: A Development Approach
January 1, 2010 — Author: LTC Clarence J Bouchat (USAF, Ret) The security and stability of Africa has recently become an important national issue readily seen in the increased time, effort, and resources now devoted to the continent by such new organizations as the U.S. Africa Command (USAFRICOM). This paper seeks to overcome centuries of ignorance and... MORE

New Partnerships for a New Era: Enhancing the South African Army’s Stabilization Role in Africa
June 1, 2009 — Author: Prof Deane-Peter Baker Since emerging from the mire of its apartheid past, South Africa has become a key player in Sub-Saharan Africa. The challenge of creating a truly national military, during a period in which South Africa has also wrestled with tough internal socio-economic problems, has left the South African National Defence Force... MORE

AFRICOM’s Dilemma: The “Global War on Terrorism” “Capacity Building,” Humanitarianism, and the Future of U.S. Security Policy in Africa
November 1, 2007 — Author: Mr Robert G Berschinski Africa is a continent of growing economic, social, political, and geostrategic importance. The establishment of a new Combatant Command for Africa–AFRICOM–marks an important milestone in the evolution of relations between the United States and the governments of Africa. Through AFRICOM, the U.S. Department of Defense... MORE

Political Warfare in Sub-Saharan Africa: U.S. Capabilities and Chinese Operations in Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa
March 1, 2007 — Author: Dr Donovan C Chau Domestic and international terrorism aside, the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), are vying for influence over African governments and people. Not unlike the Cold War, the primary means of exerting influence in Africa is through the use of nonviolent instruments of grand strategy. The author considers... MORE

Counterterrorism in African Failed States: Challenges and Potential Solutions
April 1, 2006 — Author: COL Thomas A Dempsey Terrorist groups operating in Sub-Saharan Africa failed states have demonstrated the ability to avoid the scrutiny of Western counterterrorism officials, while supporting and facilitating terrorist attacks on the United States and its partners. The potential acquisition of nuclear weapons by terrorists makes terrorist... MORE

Stabilization and Post-Conflict Operations: The Role of the Military
January 27, 2005 — Author: Dr Dallas D Owens The Women In International Security (WIIS) and Georgetown University, in cooperation with the Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, sponsored a conference, "Stabilization and Post-Conflict Operations: The Role of the Military," on November 17, 2004. Over 80 people participated in the conference conducted at... MORE

Reconfiguring the American Military Presence in Europe
February 1, 2004 — Author: LTC Raymond A Millen The author examines America's options regarding the basing of ground troops in Europe and considers three major options available to the United States--complete withdrawal, annual rotations, and restructuring the Alliance to accommodate a smaller U.S. presence. While weighing the advantages and disadvantages of each... MORE

Funding Defense: Challenges of Buying Military Capability in Sub-Saharan Africa
September 1, 2001 — Authors: COL Daniel W Henk, Dr Martin Revayi Rupiya Martin Rupiya, Director of the University of Zimbabwe's Centre for Defence Studies, and Daniel Henk of the Air War College provide one of the first comprehensive studies of defense budgeting practices in Africa. They assess both the problems with these practices and fruitful avenues of reform. By... MORE