Recent Publications

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-Order
November 14, 2024 — The 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan solidified an anti-liberal «counter-order,» challenging the rules-based international system. With its expansion to 23 members, the bloc, financially led by China, seeks to evade global restrictions and advance its agendas, though it faces coordination challenges and diverse objectives among its members. ... MORE

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-Order | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
July 24, 2024 — The United States faces a complex and ever-changing global environment. The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment is designed to guide the collective defense community to research and write about critical national security challenges to help the Army prepare for a wide range of potential conflicts and threats... MORE

The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment sets the foundation for cutting-edge research to understand the ever-evolving security environment domestically and internationally.

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
August 24, 2023 — The United States operates within a global context that is increasingly complex, interconnected, and unpredictable. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide to define broadly the contemporary security landscape and the diverse range of interests that shape our national security agenda... MORE

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/962/

Maneuvering the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry in the Middle East: How the United States Can Preserve and Protect Its Long-Term Interests in the Region
November 15, 2018 — Author: Mr Gregory AftandilianThis monograph examines the conflicts in the Middle East region between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the so-called proxy wars that are being fought between them, and discusses ways that the United States needs to maneuver carefully in this struggle to preserve its long-term interests in the area. Although Washington has... MORE

Cover for Maneuvering the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry in the Middle East: How the United States Can Preserve and Protect Its Long-Term Interests in the Region

What is Next for Yemen?
April 24, 2015 — Dr. W. Andrew TerrillThe large and strategically located country of Yemen is again in crisis. The moderate government of President Abed Rabbu Hadi has been driven from several key cities, including the capital of Sanaa, by the military offensives of Shi’ite Houthi rebels and their allies from the former regime of ex-president Ali Abdullah Saleh... MORE

The Future of the Arab Gulf Monarchies in the Age of Uncertainties
June 10, 2013 — Author: Dr Mohammed El-Katiri View the Executive SummarySeismic cultural and political shifts are under way in the Arab Gulf monarchies. The political upheavals and transitions that have swept through the Arab world over the last 2 years have not toppled the Arab Gulf rulers, but did not leave them untouched, either. Rulers of Gulf Cooperation... MORE

The Saudi-Iranian Rivalry and the Future of Middle East Security
December 1, 2011 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill Saudi Arabia and Iran have often behaved as serious rivals for influence in the Middle East and especially the Gulf area since at least Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution and the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. While both nations define themselves as Islamic, the differences between their foreign policies could hardly be more... MORE

The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World
August 2, 2011 — Table of Contents Summary Introduction Tunisia Egypt Libya Bahrain Syria Yemen Algeria Jordan Morocco Oman Kuwait Lebanon Mauritania Saudi Arabia Conclusion EndnotesSummaryThe Arab Spring is an ongoing and deeply significant process occurring in the contemporary Middle East that will have important implications for the United States government. In... MORE

The View from There
September 1, 2008 — Author: Dr Sherifa D Zuhur Each month a member of the SSI faculty writes an editorial for our monthly newsletter. This is the Op-Ed for the September 2008 newsletter.Read Now MORE

Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran
November 1, 2005 — Authors: Mr Patrick Clawson, Mr Henry D Sokolski As Iran edges closer to acquiring a nuclear bomb and its missiles extend an ever darker diplomatic shadow over the Middle East and Europe, Iran is likely to pose three threats. First, Iran could dramatically up the price of oil by interfering with the free passage of vessels in and through the... MORE

Saudi Arabia: Islamic Threat, Political Reform, and the Global War on Terror
March 1, 2005 — Author: Dr Sherifa D Zuhur This monograph examines the convergence of the war on terror on Saudi soil, calls for and modest programs of political reform, and heightened post-9/11 tensions with the United States. Saudi Arabia has been condemned for its Wahhabist version of Islam, and linked to the growth of salafist extremism operating locally,... MORE

Strategic Implications of Intercommunal Warfare in Iraq
February 1, 2005 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill In the post-Saddam era, differences among Iraqi ethnic and religious groups will either emerge as a barrier to political cooperation and national unity, or they will instead be mitigated as part of the struggle to define a new and more inclusive system of government. Should Iraqi ethnic and sectarian differences become... MORE