Recent Publications

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-Order
November 14, 2024 — The 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan solidified an anti-liberal «counter-order,» challenging the rules-based international system. With its expansion to 23 members, the bloc, financially led by China, seeks to evade global restrictions and advance its agendas, though it faces coordination challenges and diverse objectives among its members. ... MORE

Opidata #8: The BRICS Summit, China, and the Emerging Illiberal Counter-Order | Dr. R. Evan Ellis

“Water Wars of the Future – Myth or Reality”
April 25, 2022 — This article provides background and context for regional trends and historic agreements focused on the Nile River Basin, offers a comprehensive assessment of security challenges, and presents focus areas for future investment and cooperation. The policy recommendations will serve American interests better and improve agricultural practices in the region. Without a marked alteration of existing aid from Western countries, the water scarcity situation will continue without producing the required infrastructure improvements. ... MORE

“Hope versus Reality- The Efficacy of Using US Military Aid to Improve Human Rights in Egypt”
August 16, 2021 — Using US military aid as a lever to achieve human rights reforms has proven only marginally effective. This article examines the approaches employed by the Obama and Trump administrations to US military aid to Egypt and proposes practical steps that can be taken by policymakers and military personnel on the ground to advance US human rights values. ... MORE

The Gulf Moment: Arab Relations Since 2011
May 4, 2015 — Author: Dr Florence Gaub View the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines the impact that the “Arab Spring” has had on how Arab states relate to each other post-regime change and post-Islamist electoral victory. It shows that the region is undergoing a profound change as some traditional regional policy actors are paralyzed by internal turmoil... MORE

Assessing Egyptian Public Support for Security Crackdowns in the Sinai
February 10, 2015 — Author: Mr Gregory Aftandilian View the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines the terrorist groups in Egypt emanating from the Sinai and assesses the level of Egyptian public support for the government's security crackdown. These terrorist groups have not only targeted Egyptian security personnel and foreign tourists in the Sinai Peninsula but... MORE

Maneuvering the Islamist-Secularist Divide in the Arab World: How the United States Can Preserve its Interests and Values in an Increasingly Polarized Environment
October 1, 2014 — Author: Mr Gregory Aftandilian View the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines the Islamist-secularist divide in Arab countries, particularly in Egypt and Tunisia, and why it has become so intense and polarizing. It demonstrates that having Islamist parties in power or in domineering positions in Arab societies often provokes a backlash from... MORE

Egypt’s New Regime and the Future of the U.S.-Egyptian Strategic Relationship
April 11, 2013 — Author: Mr Gregory Aftandilian View the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines the strategic importance of Egypt for the United States by exploring Egypt's role in the Arab-Israeli peace process, its geographical role (providing air and naval access) for U.S. military assets heading to the Persian Gulf, and joint training programs. With so much... MORE

Breaking News Analysis: The Future of the U.S. Political and Military Relationship with Egypt
July 9, 2012 — Dr. W. Andrew Terrill The Egyptian political system is currently undergoing significant change, although the outcome of this process remains subject to a great deal of uncertainty. There are numerous influential players involved in the struggle for political power, but the two that are of greatest interest at the present time are the Muslim... MORE

The Saudi-Iranian Rivalry and the Future of Middle East Security
December 1, 2011 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill Saudi Arabia and Iran have often behaved as serious rivals for influence in the Middle East and especially the Gulf area since at least Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution and the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. While both nations define themselves as Islamic, the differences between their foreign policies could hardly be more... MORE

Presidential Succession Scenarios in Egypt and Their Impact on U.S.-Egyptian Strategic Relations
October 1, 2011 — Author: Mr Gregory Aftandilian Although this monograph was written before the pro-democracy demonstrations in Egypt in January 2011, it examines the important question as to who might succeed President Hosni Mubarak by analyzing several possible scenarios and what they would mean for U.S. strategic relations with Egypt. The monograph first... MORE

The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World
August 2, 2011 — Table of Contents Summary Introduction Tunisia Egypt Libya Bahrain Syria Yemen Algeria Jordan Morocco Oman Kuwait Lebanon Mauritania Saudi Arabia Conclusion EndnotesSummaryThe Arab Spring is an ongoing and deeply significant process occurring in the contemporary Middle East that will have important implications for the United States government. In... MORE

Egypt: Security, Political, and Islamist Challenges
September 1, 2007 — Author: Dr Sherifa D Zuhur This monograph approaches three issues in contemporary Egypt: failures of governance and political development, the continued strength of Islamism, and counterterrorism. The Egyptian government forged a truce with its most troublesome Islamist militants in 1999. However, violence emerged again from new sources of Islamist... MORE