Recent Publications

China’s Next Step in Modernizing the People’s Liberation Army: A New Reserve Service System
December 5, 2024 — The Chinese Communist Party’s massive active-duty army—the largest in the world—understates the manpower available to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) during a future protracted war. Despite the hundreds of thousands of combat troops garrisoned around the country, a prolonged war of attrition will require more than movement of forces from one side of the country to another... MORE

China’s Next Step in Modernizing the People’s Liberation Army: A New Reserve Service System | Joshua M. Arostegui

“China, the Illiberal Counter-Order, and the Role of Values in the Strategic Response”
November 7, 2024 — Dr. R. Evan Ellis discusses his recent article written for the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs titled, “China, the Illiberal Counter-Order, and the Role of Values in the Strategic Response.” This illuminating discussion covers what China is doing differently than the Soviets during the Cold War, and how new technology is playing a role in enabling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) objectives... MORE

China in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A New Dynamic in Critical Mineral Procurement
October 17, 2024 — Critical minerals will continue to grow in importance across the globe in the coming decades as technological advancements require greater quantities of these materials. The 2023 US Department of Energy Critical Materials Assessment report listed seven materials as critical in the short term because of their uses for magnets, batteries, and fuel cells: dysprosium, neodymium, gallium, graphite, terbium, iridium, and cobalt... MORE

Understanding the PRC’s Selective Use of Military Hotlines
October 4, 2024 — Executive Summary: The PRC’s strategic use of and reluctance to establish military hotlines reflect a calculated approach to escalation risk, which can be seen in crises ranging from the accidental bombing of its embassy in Belgrade in 1999 to the present day. There is a recognition that hotlines offer tactical benefits, but they are not viewed as a solution... MORE

The PRC’s strategic use of and reluctance to establish military hotlines reflect a calculated approach to escalation risk, which can be seen in crises ranging from the accidental bombing of its embassy in Belgrade in 1999 to the present day. There is a recognition that hotlines offer tactical benefits, but they are not viewed as a solution to

Protracted War Series: A Discussion with Markus Garlauskas
August 26, 2024 — In episode 17 of CLSC Dialogues, Markus Garlauskas discusses why we should think about the potential for a protracted war in the Indo-Pacific and what lessons we should be learning from analyzing the topic. He talks about why we should think about the likelihood of a potential protracted war should peace break in a place like Taiwan and why preparedness... MORE

Protracted War Series: A discussion with Dr. Sheena Greitens
August 8, 2024 — In episode 15 of CLSC Dialogues, Dr. Sheena Greitens looks at the potential for a protracted war between the US and China by exploring how a conflict could start and variables the CCP leadership may be watching. She then addresses public perceptions, economic dimensions, and how much planning Beijing may have done in preparation for a protracted war. Keywords: China, CCP, Xi Jinping, PLA, decision making, landpower, protracted war, economic warfare, coalitions, DPRK, Russia... MORE

Protracted War Series: A Discussion with Josh Arostegui
July 18, 2024 — In episode 14 of CLSC Dialogues, Josh Arostegui discusses some of the more salient points regarding how prepared the PRC is for a protracted war. He describes how the PLA remains designed to execute large-scale combat operations through the existence of unique PLA reserve, militia-centric organizations, and deep military integration within the country’s civilian infrastructure... MORE

An Interview with Dennis Blasko
July 15, 2024 — In episode 13 of CLSC Dialogues, Josh Arostegui, and Rick Gunnell interview renowned China expert Dennis Blasko. They discuss the origins of Blasko's interest in China and the PLA, then delve into his research and writing on Chinese landpower. Blasko provides wisdom and insight China watchers as they continue the tradition of researching, analyzing, and educating. ... MORE

On "War with China: A View from Early 2024"
July 2, 2024 — Episode 12 of CLSC Dialogues: In 2012, the late diplomat and RAND Corporation Senior Fellow James Dobbins wrote an article titled “War with China,” which was published in the journal Survival. The article asserted that there were several potential cases for conflict with China, including North Korea’s collapse and an unrestrained Sino-Indian border war. ... ... MORE

Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as a Pacing Challenge – 2023 PLA Conference – Updated and Expanded
April 17, 2024 — The US Army War College’s 2023 Conference on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was held February 22 to 24, 2023, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference, entitled “Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as Pacing Challenge,” featured presentations on PRC global and regional strategy, and the PLA’s enabling role by experts from a wide range of academic, media, and government agencies and organizations... MORE

A Baseline Assessment of the PLA Army's Border Reinforcement Operations in the Aksai Chin in 2020 and 2021
April 9, 2024 — This report analyzes the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) border reinforcement operation throughout the Aksai Chin and adjacent areas from summer 2020 to early 2021. It is based largely on analysis of Google Earth imagery and provides a baseline for further analysis of the PLA deployment along the entire Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Aksai Chin. Chinese Army units appear ready to remain in a defensive posture near the LAC the Aksai Chin indefinitely. ... MORE

PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights
February 8, 2024 — PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights R. Evan Ellis Over the past twenty years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has expanded its political, institutional, economic, and other forms of engagement with all regions of the world. Not surprisingly, because engagement in Latin America and the... MORE

PRC Engagement with Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons and Insights | R. Evan Ellis