Recent Publications

Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait
January 5, 2024 — Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris | The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the... MORE

The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the monograph provides US military and policy practitioners new insights into ways to deter the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan without relying exclusively on the threat of great-power war.
Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris
Keywords
Taiwan, China, deterrence, cross-strait relations, Indo-Pacific, East Asia, US foreign policy, international security

Disciplines
Defense and Security Studies

https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/964

Parameters | Autumn 2022
August 26, 2022 — Download the Full IssueIn Focus From the Editor in Chief Antulio J. Echevarria II Why America’s Army Can’t Win America’s Wars John A. Nagl Sino-Russian Relations and the War in Ukraine Zenel Garcia and Kevin D. ModlinWar and Its Effects Deconstructing the Collapse of Afghanistan National Security and Defense Forces Thomas F. Lynch III Linking... MORE

Parameters | Autumn 2022
US Army War College Press

Parameters VOL. 51 NO. 2 Summer 2021
August 17, 2021 — Parameters Summer 2021Download the Full IssueIn Focus: "Senior Leader Dissent", Conrad C. Crane; "Two Sides of COIN", M. Chris Mason and Darren Colby; "Allies and Partners", Jean-Yves Haine, Cynthia Salloum, Tongifi Kim, Luis Simon; "Strategy and Doctrine", Austin C. Doctor, James Walsh, Ann Mezzell, J. Wesley Hutto, Robert S. Ehlers Jr., Partrick... MORE

Cover for Parameters VOL. 51 NO. 2 Summer 2021

China’s Growing Military Power: Perspectives on Security, Ballistic Missiles, and Conventional Capabilities
September 1, 2002 — Authors: Dr Andrew Scobell, Dr Larry M Wortzel This volume, comprised of papers originally presented at a conference held at Carlisle Barracks in September 2001, helps to put the Hainan Island incident in the broader context of China's strategic aspirations and its growing military capabilities. This conference's co-sponsors were the American... MORE

The Rise of China in Asia: Security Implications
January 1, 2002 — Author: Dr Carolyn Pumphrey In March 2001 the U.S. Army War College, the Triangle Institute for Strategic Studies, and Duke University's Program in Asian Security Studies cosponsored a conference which examined the security implications of the rise of China for the international community in general and for the United States in particular. This... MORE

Managing a Changing Relationship: China’s Japan Policy in the 1990s
September 1, 1996 — Author: Prof Robert S Ross In April 1996, the Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute held its Seventh Annual Strategy Conference. This year's theme was, "China into the 21st Century: Strategic Partner and…or Peer Competitor." The author of the following monograph, Dr. Robert S. Ross, of Harvard University's Fairbank Center for East Asian... MORE