Recent Publications

Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’
September 20, 2024 — Whether and how NATO might pull Ukraine closer attracted a great deal of attention at the 2024 Washington summit, with the Alliance settling on the formulation of an ‘irreversible path’ towards Kyiv’s membership and pledging to further institutionalise the NATO–Ukraine relationship. There has been comparatively little analysis of what should happen... MORE

Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’ | Jorh R. Deni

Now It’s Up to Europe to Take the Lead in Ukraine
April 25, 2024 — Continental security can no longer be outsourced to the U.S., which may soon have other wars to fight.By John R. Deni and Lisa A. AronssonUkrainians are breathing a sigh of relief. Within days, desperately needed ammunition and military equipment should begin flowing to Kyiv’s beleaguered forces. But even the $60 billion approved by Congress won’t... MORE

Continental security can no longer be outsourced to the U.S., which may soon have other wars to fight.
By John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson

75 years in, NATO Remains As Vital As Ever to American Life
April 4, 2024 — As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and insufficiently focused on America’s main adversary, China.These critiques are to some degree understandable. NATO’s age obscures the... MORE

As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and insufficiently focused on America’s main adversary, China.
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4572959-75-years-in-nato-remains-as-vital-as-ever-to-american-life/

At 75, NATO Is Still Worth the Price
April 4, 2024 — Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance.The North Atlantic Alliance should justifiably mark the seventy-fifth year since its founding, but this may not be the time to pop champagne corks.NATO has... MORE

Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance.

Is the Baltic Sea a NATO Lake?
December 20, 2023 — John R. Deni | This article is part of the Baltic Sea Region Security Initiative developed by the Carnegie Endowment’s Europe Program. | With the addition of Finland and soon Sweden into the NATO fold, nearly all of the Baltic Sea littoral states will be alliance members. This has prompted some observers to label the Baltic Sea a kind of “NATO... MORE

Is the Baltic Sea a NATO Lake?
John R. Deni

Alarm Grows Over Weakened Militaries and Empty Arsenals in Europe
December 12, 2023 — Budget cuts and an eroded weapons industry have hollowed out armed services; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals risks John R. Deni, as quoted in a recent article in the Wall Street Journal: “People may say the Russians have taken it on the chin, and we don’t need to worry. That’s a valid point, but it ignores residual Russian strength,” said John... MORE

Budget cuts and an eroded weapons industry have hollowed out armed services; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals risks

“People may say the Russians have taken it on the chin, and we don’t need to worry. That’s a valid point, but it ignores residual Russian strength,” said John Deni, a professor at the U.S. Army War College and an expert on European militaries. “If the Russians present us with a mass problem in Europe, the challenge is, can technology and advanced capabilities do it? And there we see some challenges.”

Article quote and background image from:
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/alarm-nato-weak-military-empty-arsenals-europe-a72b23f4

How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
December 4, 2023 — John R. Deni for POLITICO | It’s time to tear up the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. John R. Deni is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. He’s the author of “NATO and Article 5.” The views expressed are his own.Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is... MORE

How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
by John R. Deni
Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is just months away, and allies are eagerly preparing the agenda.

This time around, several member countries are keen to avoid the kind of divisive discussions over Ukraine’s path to membership that publicly played out at last year’s summit in Vilnius — and none more so than hosting nation the United States.

Background image from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_%E2%80%93_NATO_Commission_chaired_by_Petro_Poroshenko_(2017-07-10)_48.jpg

Expert Analysis on Latest Attacks in Ukraine
October 6, 2023 — John R. Deni | Military expert John Deni talks to CNN's Laila Harrak about Russian attacks on civilians, and the question of U.S. aid.Watch the video here: Expert analysis on latest attacks in Ukraine | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/07/exp-ukraine-laila-guest-fst-100702aseg1.cnn)CNN Host Laila Guest interviews John R. Deni on the... MORE

Expert Analysis on Latest Attacks in Ukraine
US Army War College | Strategic Studies Institute

Military expert John Deni talks to CNN's Laila Harrak about Russian attacks on civilians, and the question of U.S. aid.
Expert analysis on latest attacks in Ukraine | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/10/07/exp-ukraine-laila-guest-fst-100702aseg1.cnn)

CNN Host Laila Guest interviews John R. Deni on the current situation in Ukraine.

Photo is a screenshot of the CNN interview.

NATO’s Defense Demands Eastern Front Improvements
July 20, 2023 — John R. Deni The recent summit largely avoided urgent questions about the mismatch between available forces and the Russian threat. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s rather impolitic reaction to the news that his country would not receive a firm timetable for membership in NATO stole the show at the alliance’s summit in Vilnius last week... MORE

NATO Vilnius Summit could have been historic. Instead, it mostly kicked the can down the road.
July 14, 2023 — John R. Deni argues that at the NATO Summit, “there was little significant movement on several key issues, leaving much on the table for the alliance’s 75th birthday summit next year in Washington, DC.” With the Vilnius Summit concluded, NATO observers can take a breath — and take a step back to see what was really accomplished at the meeting,... MORE

NATO Vilnius Summit could have been historic. Instead, it mostly kicked the can down the road.
John R. Deni

We don’t really know which NATO allies are pulling their weight.
July 10, 2023 — Here’s how to fix that. John R. Deni The Defense Investment Pledge agreed to by NATO allies in 2014 is reaching its decade-long finish line. The Alliance’s own data indicate that not all allies will cross that line, as many still spend less than the equivalent of 2 percent of their gross domestic products on defense and several still devote less... MORE

Debate continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join NATO
July 10, 2023 — Podcast appearance. John R. Deni As leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, meet at the annual summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, the conversation continues over whether to invite Ukraine to join the alliance and if so, when.Here & Now‘s Celeste Headlee speaks with John Deni, research professor at the U.S. Army War College and a... MORE