Recent Publications

Don’t waste this crisis, Europe: consolidate your defense industry
April 15, 2025 — Turn your excess national defense champions into continental ones.Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and questions about the American commitment to NATO have cast a spotlight on European efforts to safeguard security on the continent. But today, the major hurdles confronting Europe are no longer defense spending and industrial capacity. At both the... MORE

Don’t waste this crisis, Europe: consolidate your defense industry | Dr. John R. Deni

A Drawdown of US Forces in Europe Is All but Certain
April 15, 2025 — Here’s how the Pentagon can rebalance its approach to the continent without sacrificing US interests.The Trump administration has only just begun to fill its ranks with the political appointees who will flesh out the future of US defense policy. One item sure to be on their agenda is a review of US military deployments around the world, known in... MORE

A Drawdown of U.S. Forces in Europe Is All but Certain | John R. Deni

It’s (Still) More Expensive to Rotate Military Forces Overseas than Base Them There
December 19, 2024 — In mid-2020, then-President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to withdraw roughly one-third of US forces from Germany, reportedly because of policy differences with Berlin. Given how long it would take to implement such a significant change in overseas posture, the clock ran out on his term before the Department of Defense could complete it. With... MORE

It’s (still) more expensive to rotate military forces overseas than base them there | By John R. Deni

Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’
September 20, 2024 — Whether and how NATO might pull Ukraine closer attracted a great deal of attention at the 2024 Washington summit, with the Alliance settling on the formulation of an ‘irreversible path’ towards Kyiv’s membership and pledging to further institutionalise the NATO–Ukraine relationship. There has been comparatively little analysis of what should happen... MORE

Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’ | Jorh R. Deni

Now It’s Up to Europe to Take the Lead in Ukraine
April 25, 2024 — Continental security can no longer be outsourced to the U.S., which may soon have other wars to fight.By John R. Deni and Lisa A. AronssonUkrainians are breathing a sigh of relief. Within days, desperately needed ammunition and military equipment should begin flowing to Kyiv’s beleaguered forces. But even the $60 billion approved by Congress won’t... MORE

Continental security can no longer be outsourced to the U.S., which may soon have other wars to fight.
By John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson

75 years in, NATO Remains As Vital As Ever to American Life
April 4, 2024 — As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and insufficiently focused on America’s main adversary, China.These critiques are to some degree understandable. NATO’s age obscures the... MORE

As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and insufficiently focused on America’s main adversary, China.
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4572959-75-years-in-nato-remains-as-vital-as-ever-to-american-life/

At 75, NATO Is Still Worth the Price
April 4, 2024 — Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance.The North Atlantic Alliance should justifiably mark the seventy-fifth year since its founding, but this may not be the time to pop champagne corks.NATO has... MORE

Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance.

SSI Live 109 – Putin’s Reelection, Russia’s Trajectory, and the War in Ukraine
March 28, 2024 — SSI Live 109 – Vladimir Putin was recently reelected to an unprecedented fifth term. He faced no serious challenges, thanks to a strict crackdown on opposition and free speech. Relatedly, last month marked two years since Russia began its second and far more brutal invasion of Ukraine. As that war enters its third year, and as Putin basks in his... MORE

SSI Live 108 – Latin America and Caribbean Outlook for 2024
February 15, 2024 — SSI Live 108 – Latin America and Caribbean Outlook for 2024 – What is the outlook for security, defense, politics, and economics across Latin America and the Caribbean in 2024? How do far-away conflicts in Ukraine or Gaza impact the region? And what’s on the agenda(s) of extraterritorial actors like China, Russia, and Iran in Central America, the... MORE

SSI Live 107 – SSI Launches China Landpower Studies Center
January 31, 2024 — The Strategic Studies Institute has just launched a new initiative, the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC). SSI Live host John Deni invited its Research Director, Josh Arostegui, to discuss the new Center, its research priorities, and how China’s actions across the Indo-Pacific make this an ideal – even vital – time to launch this important effort. Listen here, download to your device, or subscribe below. ... MORE

Is the Baltic Sea a NATO Lake?
December 20, 2023 — John R. Deni | This article is part of the Baltic Sea Region Security Initiative developed by the Carnegie Endowment’s Europe Program. | With the addition of Finland and soon Sweden into the NATO fold, nearly all of the Baltic Sea littoral states will be alliance members. This has prompted some observers to label the Baltic Sea a kind of “NATO... MORE

Is the Baltic Sea a NATO Lake?
John R. Deni

Alarm Grows Over Weakened Militaries and Empty Arsenals in Europe
December 12, 2023 — Budget cuts and an eroded weapons industry have hollowed out armed services; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals risks John R. Deni, as quoted in a recent article in the Wall Street Journal: “People may say the Russians have taken it on the chin, and we don’t need to worry. That’s a valid point, but it ignores residual Russian strength,” said John... MORE

Budget cuts and an eroded weapons industry have hollowed out armed services; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals risks

“People may say the Russians have taken it on the chin, and we don’t need to worry. That’s a valid point, but it ignores residual Russian strength,” said John Deni, a professor at the U.S. Army War College and an expert on European militaries. “If the Russians present us with a mass problem in Europe, the challenge is, can technology and advanced capabilities do it? And there we see some challenges.”

Article quote and background image from:
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/alarm-nato-weak-military-empty-arsenals-europe-a72b23f4