Recent Publications

It’s (Still) More Expensive to Rotate Military Forces Overseas than Base Them There
December 19, 2024 — In mid-2020, then-President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to withdraw roughly one-third of US forces from Germany, reportedly because of policy differences with Berlin. Given how long it would take to implement such a significant change in overseas posture, the clock ran out on his term before the Department of Defense could complete it. With... MORE

It’s (still) more expensive to rotate military forces overseas than base them there | By John R. Deni

Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’
September 20, 2024 — Whether and how NATO might pull Ukraine closer attracted a great deal of attention at the 2024 Washington summit, with the Alliance settling on the formulation of an ‘irreversible path’ towards Kyiv’s membership and pledging to further institutionalise the NATO–Ukraine relationship. There has been comparatively little analysis of what should happen... MORE

Ukraine in NATO: Beyond the ‘Irreversible Path’ | Jorh R. Deni

Now It’s Up to Europe to Take the Lead in Ukraine
April 25, 2024 — Continental security can no longer be outsourced to the U.S., which may soon have other wars to fight.By John R. Deni and Lisa A. AronssonUkrainians are breathing a sigh of relief. Within days, desperately needed ammunition and military equipment should begin flowing to Kyiv’s beleaguered forces. But even the $60 billion approved by Congress won’t... MORE

Continental security can no longer be outsourced to the U.S., which may soon have other wars to fight.
By John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson

75 years in, NATO Remains As Vital As Ever to American Life
April 4, 2024 — As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and insufficiently focused on America’s main adversary, China.These critiques are to some degree understandable. NATO’s age obscures the... MORE

As NATO marks 75 years since its founding, there are serious questions among some Americans who doubt the value of the trans-Atlantic alliance. They argue that it’s anachronistic, full of burden-sharing slackers and insufficiently focused on America’s main adversary, China.
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4572959-75-years-in-nato-remains-as-vital-as-ever-to-american-life/

At 75, NATO Is Still Worth the Price
April 4, 2024 — Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance.The North Atlantic Alliance should justifiably mark the seventy-fifth year since its founding, but this may not be the time to pop champagne corks.NATO has... MORE

Despite achieving notable successes over its seventy-five years of existence, NATO today faces a major challenge. A change in the United States’ commitment could spell the demise of the alliance.

SSI Live 109 – Putin’s Reelection, Russia’s Trajectory, and the War in Ukraine
March 28, 2024 — SSI Live 109 – Vladimir Putin was recently reelected to an unprecedented fifth term. He faced no serious challenges, thanks to a strict crackdown on opposition and free speech. Relatedly, last month marked two years since Russia began its second and far more brutal invasion of Ukraine. As that war enters its third year, and as Putin basks in his... MORE

SSI Live 108 – Latin America and Caribbean Outlook for 2024
February 15, 2024 — SSI Live 108 – Latin America and Caribbean Outlook for 2024 – What is the outlook for security, defense, politics, and economics across Latin America and the Caribbean in 2024? How do far-away conflicts in Ukraine or Gaza impact the region? And what’s on the agenda(s) of extraterritorial actors like China, Russia, and Iran in Central America, the... MORE

SSI Live 107 – SSI Launches China Landpower Studies Center
January 31, 2024 — The Strategic Studies Institute has just launched a new initiative, the China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC). SSI Live host John Deni invited its Research Director, Josh Arostegui, to discuss the new Center, its research priorities, and how China’s actions across the Indo-Pacific make this an ideal – even vital – time to launch this important effort. Listen here, download to your device, or subscribe below. ... MORE

Is the Baltic Sea a NATO Lake?
December 20, 2023 — John R. Deni | This article is part of the Baltic Sea Region Security Initiative developed by the Carnegie Endowment’s Europe Program. | With the addition of Finland and soon Sweden into the NATO fold, nearly all of the Baltic Sea littoral states will be alliance members. This has prompted some observers to label the Baltic Sea a kind of “NATO... MORE

Is the Baltic Sea a NATO Lake?
John R. Deni

Alarm Grows Over Weakened Militaries and Empty Arsenals in Europe
December 12, 2023 — Budget cuts and an eroded weapons industry have hollowed out armed services; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals risks John R. Deni, as quoted in a recent article in the Wall Street Journal: “People may say the Russians have taken it on the chin, and we don’t need to worry. That’s a valid point, but it ignores residual Russian strength,” said John... MORE

Budget cuts and an eroded weapons industry have hollowed out armed services; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals risks

“People may say the Russians have taken it on the chin, and we don’t need to worry. That’s a valid point, but it ignores residual Russian strength,” said John Deni, a professor at the U.S. Army War College and an expert on European militaries. “If the Russians present us with a mass problem in Europe, the challenge is, can technology and advanced capabilities do it? And there we see some challenges.”

Article quote and background image from:
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/alarm-nato-weak-military-empty-arsenals-europe-a72b23f4

SSI Live 104 – Implications of Milei’s Election in Argentina –
December 5, 2023 — Libertarian Javier Milei recently won a landslide victory in Argentina’s presidential election on a platform of radical reform designed to solve the country’s major economic challenges. How did Milei pull it off? What came out of his post-election trip to the United States? How likely is he to achieve his policy aims at home and abroad? And what are the implications for the U.S.-Argentinian security relationship?... MORE

How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
December 4, 2023 — John R. Deni for POLITICO | It’s time to tear up the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. John R. Deni is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute. He’s the author of “NATO and Article 5.” The views expressed are his own.Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is... MORE

How to stop Ukraine’s NATO bid from derailing Washington summit
by John R. Deni
Marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, the alliance’s next summit in Washington is just months away, and allies are eagerly preparing the agenda.

This time around, several member countries are keen to avoid the kind of divisive discussions over Ukraine’s path to membership that publicly played out at last year’s summit in Vilnius — and none more so than hosting nation the United States.

Background image from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_%E2%80%93_NATO_Commission_chaired_by_Petro_Poroshenko_(2017-07-10)_48.jpg