Recent Publications

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
August 24, 2023 — The United States operates within a global context that is increasingly complex, interconnected, and unpredictable. The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide to define broadly the contemporary security landscape and the diverse range of interests that shape our national security agenda... MORE

2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/962/

Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future
December 22, 2015 — Author: Mr Henry D SokolskiView the Executive Summary With the world focused on the nuclear crisis in Iran, it is tempting to think that addressing this case, North Korea, and the problem of nuclear terrorism is all that matters and is what matters most. Perhaps, but if states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military... MORE

The Energy and Security Nexus: A Strategic Dilemma
November 1, 2012 — Author: Dr Carolyn Pumphrey The relationship between energy and security has been receiving increasing attention over the last few years. Energy literally drives the global economy. Societies rely on it for everything from advanced medical equipment to heating, cooling, and irrigation. Whether it derives from advanced nuclear reactors in developed... MORE

Cover for The Energy and Security Nexus: A Strategic Dilemma

Resetting the Reset Button: Realism About Russia
December 1, 2009 — Author: Dr Stephen J Blank Each month a member of the SSI faculty writes an editorial for our monthly newsletter. This is the Op-Ed for the December 2009 newsletter.Read Now MORE

Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter
January 1, 2009 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski, Mr Robert Zarate Pioneers of nuclear-age policy analysis, Albert Wohlstetter (1913-1997) and Roberta Wohlstetter (1912-2007) emerged as two of America's most consequential, innovative and controversial strategists. Through the clarity of their thinking, the rigor of their research, and the persistence of their... MORE

Falling Behind: International Scrutiny of the Peaceful Atom
February 1, 2008 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski If possible, it would be useful to enhance the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) ability to detect and prevent nuclear diversions. This would not only reduce the current risk of nuclear proliferation, it would make the further expansion of nuclear power much less risky. The question is what is possible? To... MORE

Russian Nonproliferation Policy and the Korean Peninsula
December 1, 2006 — Authors: Dr Yong-Chool Ha, Dr Beom-Shik Shin Efforts to resolve the threat posed to Northeast Asia's security by North Korea's nuclear proliferation through six-party negotiations are proceeding with great difficulty. As in any multilateral process, a major problem is understanding the goals and perspectives of each of the participants. This... MORE

Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran
November 1, 2005 — Authors: Mr Patrick Clawson, Mr Henry D Sokolski As Iran edges closer to acquiring a nuclear bomb and its missiles extend an ever darker diplomatic shadow over the Middle East and Europe, Iran is likely to pose three threats. First, Iran could dramatically up the price of oil by interfering with the free passage of vessels in and through the... MORE

South Asia and the Nuclear Future: Rethinking the Causes and Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation
May 25, 2005 — Author: Dr Todd S Sechser On June 4-5, 2004, the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University hosted a workshop on the question of nuclear weapons and stability in South Asia. Cosponsored by CISAC and the U.S. Army War College, the workshop brought together approximately 75 scholars, military officers, civilian... MORE

Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice
November 1, 2004 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice is the first critical history of the intellectual roots and actual application of the strategic doctrine of nuclear mutual assured destruction or MAD. Written by the world's leading French, British, and American military policy planners and... MORE

Nuclear Asia
May 11, 2004 — Authors: Mr Joseph Ferguson, Rep Gael Tarleton On March 18-19, 2004, in Seattle, Washington, the National Bureau of Asian Research, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, U.S. Army War College, Central Intelligence Agency, Department of Energy, Nuclear Threat Initiative, and the Ploughshares Fund co-sponsored a conference to explore the complex... MORE

Strategic Implications of the U.S.-DPRK Framework Agreement
April 1, 1995 — Author: Dr Thomas L Wilborn The United States and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) signed an unprecedented framework agreement in October 1994 to halt the latter's nuclear weapons program, establish low-level diplomatic contacts between Washington and Pyongyang, and reduce tensions on the Korean peninsula. In this study, the author... MORE