Recent Publications

“The Challenges of Next-Gen Insurgency”
November 5, 2024 — In this episode, Steven Metz discusses his article, “The Challenges of Next-Gen Insurgency,” which was published in the Autumn 2024 issue of Parameters. We discuss how generational conflict may drive future insurgencies, particularly tensions between youth and older generations fueled by frustration and radical ideologies... MORE

Parameters | Autumn 2024
August 29, 2024 — Welcome to the Autumn 2024 issue of Parameters. The Autumn issue consists of a special piece from the US Army War College Commandant and Provost on their strategic vision for the college, two In Focus special commentaries, three forums (Cooperative Partnerships, Professional Development, and Historical Studies), two regular forums (A Major’s Perspective and the Civil-Military Relations Corner), and a... MORE

How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them
August 29, 2023 — Irregular Warfare Book Review: How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them Author: Barbara F. Walter | Reviewed by Dr. Robert J. Bunker, director of research and analysis, managing partner, C/O Futures LLC | How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them was written to acquaint readers with “the conditions that give rise to, and define, modern civil... MORE

Book Review by Robert J. Bunker: How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them

Author: Barbara F. Walter

Reviewed by Dr. Robert J. Bunker, director of research and analysis, managing partner, C/O Futures LLC

How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them was written to acquaint readers with “the conditions that give rise to, and define, modern civil war” to “[understand how] close modern America is to erupting into conflict” (xviii). The reviewer notes, “American military officers, sworn government agents, and officials will find the work troubling” and praises its “nonpartisan exploration and objective analysis” in tackling a difficult topic.

“Linking Trauma to the Prevalence of Civil War”
September 30, 2022 — This podcast argues the more trauma endured by a population, the more civil war the country will experience in the future. Drawing on mental health, trauma, and neurobiological research, it builds a new theory of civil war that fills existing gaps in current civil-war literature, and then tests the theory via statistical analysis of a large sample size (large-n statistical analysis). The conclusions will help policymakers and US military leadership better understand civil wars and the limits of American power to end them. ... MORE

The COIN Conundrum: The Future of Counterinsurgency and U.S. Land Power
December 1, 2016 — Author: Dr Thomas R MockaitisCounterinsurgency (COIN) continues to be a controversial subject among military leaders. Critics argue that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have made the U.S. military, particularly the Army, "COIN-centric." They maintain that equipping U.S. forces to combat insurgency has eroded their conventional war fighting... MORE

Old and New Insurgency Forms
March 1, 2016 — Author: Dr Robert J BunkerThis monograph creates a proposed insurgency typology divided into legacy, contemporary, and emergent and potential insurgency forms, and provides strategic implications for U.S. defense policy as they relate to each of these forms. The typology clusters, insurgency forms identified, and their starting dates are as... MORE

The Rise of iWar: Identity, Information, and the Individualization of Modern Warfare
October 16, 2015 — Author: COL Glenn J VoelzView the Executive Summary During a decade of global counterterrorism operations and two extended counterinsurgency campaigns, the United States was confronted with a new kind of adversary. Without uniforms, flags, and formations, the task of identifying and targeting these combatants represented an unprecedented... MORE

Terrorist and Insurgent Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: Use, Potentials, and Military Implications
August 27, 2015 — Author: Dr Robert J BunkerView the Executive Summary This manuscript focuses on the present threat posed by terrorist and insurgent use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) as well as associated future threat potentials. This work presents a counterintuitive analysis in the sense that armed drones are typically viewed as a component of America’s... MORE

Russia’s Counterinsurgency in North Caucasus: Performance and Consequences
March 1, 2014 — Author: Dr Ariel CohenView the Executive Summary The North Caucasus region has been a source of instability for the past several centuries. Most recently, Chechen aspirations to achieve full independence after the break-up of the Soviet Union led to two disastrous wars. While the active phase of the Chechen conflict ended in 2000 – more than a... MORE

Cover for Russia's Counterinsurgency in North Caucasus: Performance and Consequences

Op-Ed: Not Your Grandfather’s Insurgency — Criminal, Spiritual, and Plutocratic
February 20, 2014 — Dr. Robert J. Bunker The U.S. Army is facing both ongoing and projected austere economic times with deep troop and budget cuts. As a result, a concomitant rise in soul searching over the Army’s “strategic Landpower” contribution to national defense is increasingly evident. This is a natural and expected occurrence for a Service that has been in the... MORE

State Collapse, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency: Lessons from Somalia
November 14, 2013 — Author: Dr J Peter Pham View the Executive SummaryFor more than 2 decades, Somalia has been the prime example of a collapsed state, resisting multiple attempts to reconstitute a central government, with the current internationally-backed regime of the “Federal Republic of Somalia” struggling just to maintain its hold on the capital and the... MORE

War and Insurgency in the Western Sahara
May 13, 2013 — Author: Geoffrey Jensen View the Executive SummaryAt a crucial crossroads between Africa and Europe, the Mediterranean and the Atlantic, and the “Arab World” and the West, Morocco has long had a special place in U.S. diplomacy and strategic planning. Since September 11, 2001, Morocco’s importance to the United States has only increased, and the... MORE