Recent Publications

Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait
January 16, 2024 — The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This podcast introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete... MORE

Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait
January 5, 2024 — The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete... MORE

The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the monograph provides US military and policy practitioners new insights into ways to deter the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan without relying exclusively on the threat of great-power war.
Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris
Keywords
Taiwan, China, deterrence, cross-strait relations, Indo-Pacific, East Asia, US foreign policy, international security

Disciplines
Defense and Security Studies

https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/964

A Changing International Order? Implications for the Security Environment
October 1, 2020 — Dr. Carol Evans, Christopher Ankersen, William G. Braun III, Ferry de Kerckhove, Kathryn M. Fisher, 2020Each year, the Kingston Consortium on International Security (KCIS)—a partnership of the academy and the military—organize a conference on international security. This conference seeks to inform debate and advance knowledge in the field of... MORE

Cover for A Changing International Order? Implications for the Security Environment

The Quest for Military Cooperation in North Africa: Prospects and Challenges
October 1, 2016 — Author: Dr Mohammed El-KatiriNorth Africa's security landscape has worsened in the aftermath of the political events of the Arab Spring. Libya's dire state of affairs has had significant repercussions not only on its internal security and stability, but also on that of its neighboring countries, particularly the ones with long and exposed land... MORE

Cover for The Quest for Military Cooperation in North Africa: Prospects and Challenges

The Real Rebalancing: American Diplomacy and the Tragedy of President Obama’s Foreign Policy
October 26, 2015 — Author: Dr John R DeniView the Executive Summary American security policy rests on a three-legged stool consisting of defense, diplomacy, and development. As President Obama implied in his May 2014 speech at West Point, the United States is in the midst of a resurgence of diplomacy and development, as it seeks to leverage diplomatic influence,... MORE

Colloquium Brief: Robotics and Military Operations - Kingston Conference on International Security
August 14, 2015 — Dr. Robert J. Bunker Key Insights: A number of definitions for autonomous systems exist. One of the working definitions used at the colloquium was that in which their key feature is viewed as the ability of a given system to perform certain functions independently. Autonomous systems can support military operations by contributing to force... MORE

Does Anyone Really Know What’s Going On? Likely Not.
June 17, 2015 — Mr. Nathan P. FreierNational security elites have fallen into a funk over the recent course of U.S. policy. At first glance, it seems the mythical Midas Touch of the United States as indispensable to solving the world’s most compelling challenges is just that . . . myth. Even a cursory examination of current events betrays a veritable dog’s... MORE

Parsing Chinese-Russian Military Exercises
April 15, 2015 — Author: Dr Richard Weitz View the Executive SummaryChina and Russia have engaged in an increasing number of joint exercises in recent years. These drills aim to help them deter and, if necessary, defeat potential threats, such as Islamist terrorists trying to destabilize a Central Asian government, while at the same time reassuring their allies... MORE

Colloquium Brief: CBRNe: The Ongoing Challenge – Kingston Conference On International Security
September 29, 2014 — Dr. Robert J. Bunker Key Insights. Little ‘e’ (explosive events) suicide bombings have their conceptual origins in tactical actions (destructive) between military forces—including World War II Japanese Kamikazes—that, in time, evolved into acts of terrorism with strategic (disruptive) political outcomes. IED fatigue exists for troops in... MORE

Op-Ed: Between Conflicts: An Army Role That Sticks
January 17, 2014 — Prof. William G. Braun, III When war is looming, U.S. civilian leaders intuitively recognize and appreciate the flexibility, scalability, and decisiveness inherent in Army formations. When confronted by lesser conflicts, national leaders eventually come to value the Army’s ability to operate in hostile environments, shape outcomes, and maintain... MORE

Politics and Economics in Putin’s Russia
December 10, 2013 — Author: Dr Stephen J Blank View the Executive SummaryIn one way or another, the papers included in this monograph, from the Strategic Studies Institute’s annual conference on Russia in May 2012, all point to the internal pathologies that render Russian security a precarious affair at the best of times. As the editor suggests, the very fact of this... MORE

Central Asia After 2014
November 3, 2013 — Author: Dr Stephen J Blank View the Executive SummaryAs NATO and the United States proceed to withdraw their forces from Afghanistan, the inherent and preexisting geopolitical, security, and strategic challenges in Central Asia become ever more apparent. The rivalry among the great powers: the United States, China, Russia, India, and others to a... MORE