Recent Publications

Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait
January 5, 2024 — Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris | The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the... MORE

The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the monograph provides US military and policy practitioners new insights into ways to deter the People’s Republic of China from invading Taiwan without relying exclusively on the threat of great-power war.
Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris
Keywords
Taiwan, China, deterrence, cross-strait relations, Indo-Pacific, East Asia, US foreign policy, international security

Disciplines
Defense and Security Studies

https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/964

A Changing International Order? Implications for the Security Environment
October 1, 2020 — Dr. Carol Evans, Christopher Ankersen, William G. Braun III, Ferry de Kerckhove, Kathryn M. Fisher, 2020Each year, the Kingston Consortium on International Security (KCIS)—a partnership of the academy and the military—organize a conference on international security. This conference seeks to inform debate and advance knowledge in the field of... MORE

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The Quest for Military Cooperation in North Africa: Prospects and Challenges
October 1, 2016 — Author: Dr Mohammed El-KatiriNorth Africa's security landscape has worsened in the aftermath of the political events of the Arab Spring. Libya's dire state of affairs has had significant repercussions not only on its internal security and stability, but also on that of its neighboring countries, particularly the ones with long and exposed land... MORE

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Colloquium Brief: CBRNe: The Ongoing Challenge – Kingston Conference On International Security
September 29, 2014 — Dr. Robert J. Bunker Key Insights. Little ‘e’ (explosive events) suicide bombings have their conceptual origins in tactical actions (destructive) between military forces—including World War II Japanese Kamikazes—that, in time, evolved into acts of terrorism with strategic (disruptive) political outcomes. IED fatigue exists for troops in... MORE

Op-Ed: Between Conflicts: An Army Role That Sticks
January 17, 2014 — Prof. William G. Braun, III When war is looming, U.S. civilian leaders intuitively recognize and appreciate the flexibility, scalability, and decisiveness inherent in Army formations. When confronted by lesser conflicts, national leaders eventually come to value the Army’s ability to operate in hostile environments, shape outcomes, and maintain... MORE

Drug Trafficking, Violence, and Instability
April 1, 2012 — Authors: Dr Vanda Felbab-Brown, Dr Phil Williams Although challenges posed by various kinds of violent armed groups initially appear highly diverse and unrelated to one another, in fact they all reflect the increasing connections between security and governance and, in particular, the relationship between poor governance and violent armed groups... MORE

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PLA Missions Beyond Taiwan
November 1, 2008 — Author: Mr Marc Miller The interplay between China’s armed forces and its complex foreign policy and international security environment was examined in order to understand the requirements of several newly emerging PLA missions, and to consider how these specific interactions affect policy towards Taiwan and the wider Asia-Pacific region. Three... MORE

Leadership and National Security Reform: The Next President’s Agenda
October 1, 2008 — Authors: Dr Joseph R Cerami, Dr Robert H Dorff, Ms Lisa Moorman On March 20, 2008, the Bush School of Texas A&M University hosted a conference on “Leadership and National Security Reform: The Next President’s Agenda.” The participants examined the contemporary international environment and American national security policy for the next presidential... MORE

U.S. Army War College Guide to National Security Policy and Strategy, 2nd Edition
June 1, 2006 — Author: Dr J Boone Bartholomees Jr This edition of the U. S. Army War College Guide to National Security Policy and Strategy reflects to some extent recent changes in the structure of the core curriculum at the War College. The college broke its traditional core course, “War, National Policy and Strategy,” into two courses: “Theory of War and... MORE

The Proliferation Security Initiative as a New Paradigm for Peace and Security
April 1, 2006 — Author: Dr Mark R Shulman The author examines the Proliferation Security Initiative—a multinational activity launched in 2003 to enable the United States and like-minded countries to interdict the flow of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). This Initiative also may bring dramatic changes the international security system by enabling concerned states... MORE

Current and Future Challenges for Asian Nonproliferation Export Controls: A Regional Response
October 1, 2004 — Author: Dr Scott A Jones As Asia develops into a clearly demarcated economic "region," it is confronted by similar export control challenges as those faced in Europe with the advent of the Common Market. As such, a regional system of export control standards and practices emerged as a means to ensure not only economic parity, but regional and... MORE

Hemispheric Strategic Objectives for the Next Decade
May 11, 2004 — Author: Dr Max G Manwaring The Latin American and Caribbean Center of Florida International University, the U.S. Southern Command, and the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College held the seventh in a series of major annual conferences dealing with security matters in the Western Hemisphere, in Miami, Florida, on March 17-19, 2004... MORE