Recent Publications

“Avoiding the Escalatory Trap: Managing Escalation During the Israel-Hamas War”
November 6, 2024 — In this episode, Dr. C. Anthony Pfaff, interim director of the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College, discusses his work on managing escalation during the Israel-Hamas War. The conversation covers the complexities of Israel’s deterrence strategies, the proposed ceasefire, and the implications of Hamas’ potential power dynamics akin to Hezbollah. Pfaff highlights the delicate balance required in deterring Iranian support for Hamas and the importance ... MORE

Decisive Point Podcast 5-25 | C. Anthony Pfaff

Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termination
September 23, 2024 — As wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue with little end in sight, the sense of urgency to determine how they should end is increasing, given how the wars could end. A just war aims to establish a better state of peace, but a better state of peace may not always be achievable, and even when it is achievable, it may not be good enough. When that is the case, actors must determine on what terms to settle... MORE

Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termination | C. Anthony Pfaff

The Ethics of Trusting AI
August 15, 2023 — Based on the monograph Trusting AI: Integrating Artificial Intelligence into the Army’s Professional Expert Knowledge and the Parameters article “Minotaurs, Not Centaurs: The Future of Manned-Unmanned Teaming,” this episode focuses on the ethics of trusting AI. Who is responsible when something goes wrong? When is it okay for AI to make command decisions? How can humans and machines... MORE

Trusting AI: Integrating Artificial Intelligence into the Army’s Professional Expert Knowledge
June 22, 2023 — Integrating artificially intelligent technologies for military purposes poses a special challenge. In previous arms races, such as the race to atomic bomb technology during World War II, expertise resided within the Department of Defense. But in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race, expertise dwells mostly within industry and academia. Also, unlike the development of the bomb, effective employment of AI... MORE

Coercing Fluently: The Grammar of Coercion in the Twenty-first Century
October 31, 2022 — To illustrate the logic and grammar of coercion, this analysis relies on decision-theory methods, such as game theory, that examine the strategic decision-making process in interactions with adversaries and partners. The intent here is not to offer predictive models of rational-actor behavior. Rather, the intent is to use game theory and similar approaches to understand how coercion works better. This analysis considers competitive interactions between actors that have discrete and qualifiable, if not quantifiable, preferences and who behave rationally, though this analysis acknowledges the behavior that is considered rational is frequently informed by nonrational social, cultural, and psychological factors. Considering these competitive interactions allows one to identify “rules of thumb” that can orient and guide actors as they compete... MORE

Striking the Balance: US Army Force Posture in Europe, 2028—A Study Sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of the Army
June 24, 2020 — Authors: J.P. Clark and C. Anthony PfaffWithin the context of Europe, the US Army must develop a force posture that best navigates the tensions between deterring or defeating armed conflict at acceptable cost, successfully competing below armed conflict, and maintaining global responsiveness and institutional flexibility through the global... MORE

Cover for Striking the Balance: US Army Force Posture in Europe, 2028—A Study Sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of the Army

Parameters VOL. 46 NO. 3 Autumn 2016
September 30, 2016 — Editor: Dr Antulio J Echevarria II Special Commentary: Rebalancing Offshore BalancingMichael G. RoskinAdapting to Strategic ChangeBrian McAllister Linn, J. P. Clark, Charles Hornick, Daniel Burkhart, and Dave ShunkMyths about the Army ProfessionDon M. Snider, C. Anthony PfaffOn Strategic Communications TodayJames P. Farwell and Darby J... MORE

Cover for Parameters VOL. 46 NO. 3 AUTUMN 2016