Recent Publications

“Avoiding the Escalatory Trap: Managing Escalation During the Israel-Hamas War”
November 6, 2024 — In this episode, Dr. C. Anthony Pfaff, interim director of the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College, discusses his work on managing escalation during the Israel-Hamas War. The conversation covers the complexities of Israel’s deterrence strategies, the proposed ceasefire, and the implications of Hamas’ potential power dynamics akin to Hezbollah. Pfaff highlights the delicate balance required in deterring Iranian support for Hamas and the importance ... MORE

Decisive Point Podcast 5-25 | C. Anthony Pfaff

Venezuela: The Path Forward
November 6, 2024 — Thanks to the courageous work of the Venezuelan opposition, including obtaining physical and photographic evidence of over 80% of the individual “acts” from Venezuela’s more than 30,000 polling places, the world generally knows that Edmundo Gonzalez received far more votes than Nicholas Maduro in the country’s July 28, 2024, Presidential election. Nonetheless, he is unlikely to successfully take control of the state apparatus that controls Venezuela’s territory on Inauguration Day, January 10, 2025. ... MORE

Venezuela: The Path Forward | R. Evan Ellis

Paraguay’s Security Challenges and the Government Response
October 28, 2024 — This article analyzes the security challenges in Paraguay and the government response under the administration of Santiago Peña. It argues that Paraguay, despite its strategic location and regional relevance, faces serious security problems due to organized crime, corruption and its role as a transit point for drugs and weapons. The country also... MORE

Nonstate Actors and Anti-Access/Area Denial Strategies: The Coming Challenge
February 6, 2020 — Author: Dr. Jean-Loup SamaanThis monograph explores the emerging challenge of nonstate actors’ anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) strategies and their implications for the United States and its allies by looking at two regions, the Middle East and Eastern Europe, with case studies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the Houthis... MORE

Cover for Nonstate Actors and Anti-Access/Area Denial Strategies: The Coming Challenge

From War to Deterrence? Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Since 2006
May 1, 2014 — Author: Dr Jean-Loup Samaan View the Executive SummaryOver the last 7 years, the border between Israel and Lebanon has remained quiet. Against all odds, in a Middle East experiencing tremendous challenges, Israel and Hezbollah did not trigger a new conflict. To understand this paradox, the monograph explores the mechanisms of deterrence in the... MORE

The 2006 Lebanon Campaign and the Future of Warfare: Implications for Army and Defense Policy
September 1, 2008 — Authors: Dr Stephen D Biddle, Mr Jeffrey A Friedman Many now see future warfare as a matter of nonstate actors employing irregular methods against Western states. This expectation has given rise to a range of sweeping proposals for transforming the U.S. military to meet such threats. In this context, Hezbollah’s 2006 campaign in southern Lebanon... MORE