Recent Publications

Nonstate Actors and Anti-Access/Area Denial Strategies: The Coming Challenge
February 6, 2020 — Author: Dr. Jean-Loup SamaanThis monograph explores the emerging challenge of nonstate actors’ anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) strategies and their implications for the United States and its allies by looking at two regions, the Middle East and Eastern Europe, with case studies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the Houthis... MORE

Cover for Nonstate Actors and Anti-Access/Area Denial Strategies: The Coming Challenge

The New Arab Regional Order: Opportunities and Challenges for U.S. Policy
November 30, 2015 — Author: Mr Gregory AftandilianView the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines the new Arab regional order that has emerged over the past few years and analyzes opportunities and challenges for U.S. strategic interests. The regional order encompasses: 1) an anti-Islamist grouping of countries that came about largely in reaction to Muslim... MORE

Arab Threat Perceptions and the Future of the U.S. Military Presence in the Middle East
October 22, 2015 — Author: Dr W Andrew TerrillView the Executive Summary The threat perceptions of many Arab states aligned with the United States have changed significantly as a result of such dramatic events as the 2011 U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq, the emergence and then fading of the Arab Spring, the rise of Iranian power and Tehran’s nuclear agreement with... MORE

What is Next for Yemen?
April 24, 2015 — Dr. W. Andrew TerrillThe large and strategically located country of Yemen is again in crisis. The moderate government of President Abed Rabbu Hadi has been driven from several key cities, including the capital of Sanaa, by the military offensives of Shi’ite Houthi rebels and their allies from the former regime of ex-president Ali Abdullah Saleh... MORE

The Struggle for Yemen and the Challenge of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
June 21, 2013 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill View the Executive SummaryIn recent years, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has been widely recognized as a more dangerous regional and international terrorist organization than the original al-Qaeda led by Osama bin Laden until his death in 2011. In 2010-11, AQAP was able to present a strong challenge to Yemen's... MORE

Op-Ed: Drones Are Making A Difference In Yemen
March 13, 2013 — Dr. W. Andrew TerrillUnmanned aerial vehicles (often known as drones) have recently been the subject of intense controversy due to their use in remote parts of the world to target individuals designated as terrorists. This concern is appropriate, because many aspects of their use are clearly in need of scrupulous legal and ethical consideration... MORE

Op-Ed: The West and the Durability and Problems of Monarchies in the Arab Spring
December 14, 2011 — Dr. W. Andrew TerrillThe regional response to the Arab Spring has alarmed a number of international observers because a variety of ugly governments are displaying their ugliest side. No civilized person condones the nature of Libyan leader Muhammar Qadhafi’s final hour, but equally no one doubts that he worked hard to earn such a fate. Likewise, in... MORE

The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World
August 2, 2011 — Table of Contents Summary Introduction Tunisia Egypt Libya Bahrain Syria Yemen Algeria Jordan Morocco Oman Kuwait Lebanon Mauritania Saudi Arabia Conclusion EndnotesSummaryThe Arab Spring is an ongoing and deeply significant process occurring in the contemporary Middle East that will have important implications for the United States government. In... MORE

The Conflicts in Yemen and U.S. National Security
January 1, 2011 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill Yemen is not currently a failed state, but it is experiencing huge political and economic problems that can have a direct impact on U.S. interests in the region. It has a rapidly expanding population with a resource base that is limited and already leaves much of the current population in poverty. The government obtains... MORE

Cover for Extremist Migration: A Foreign Jihadist Fighter Threat Assessment

Preventing Yemen from Becoming Fallujah
November 1, 2010 — Dr. W. Andrew Terrill In the rapidly mutating world of international terrorist organizations, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has become one of the most serious threats facing the United States. The recent AQAP attempt to use parcel bombs against U.S.-bound aircraft is only the most recent manifestation of this problem. The Christmas... MORE

Strategic Implications of Intercommunal Warfare in Iraq
February 1, 2005 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill In the post-Saddam era, differences among Iraqi ethnic and religious groups will either emerge as a barrier to political cooperation and national unity, or they will instead be mitigated as part of the struggle to define a new and more inclusive system of government. Should Iraqi ethnic and sectarian differences become... MORE

Yemen and Stability in the Persian Gulf: Confronting the Threat from Within
May 1, 1996 — Author: Dr Stephen C Pelletiere Yemen is one of the oldest societies in the Middle East. It sits athwart one of the world's most strategic waterways, and hence, throughout the Cold War, the United States and Soviet Union contended for influence over it. With the end of the Cold War, Yemen's fortunes sank. Soviet support vanished, and the United... MORE