Recent Publications

The Dual-System Problem in Complex Conflicts
September 20, 2018 — Author: Ms. Melissa Gregg, Dr. Robert D. LambConflict and fragile environments are increasingly complex and unpredictable, but the U.S. policy system itself is much more complex and unpredictable than most leaders appreciate. In this monograph, the authors argue that until we get a grasp on this “dual-system problem,” the United States will fall... MORE

Does Anyone Really Know What’s Going On? Likely Not.
June 17, 2015 — Mr. Nathan P. FreierNational security elites have fallen into a funk over the recent course of U.S. policy. At first glance, it seems the mythical Midas Touch of the United States as indispensable to solving the world’s most compelling challenges is just that . . . myth. Even a cursory examination of current events betrays a veritable dog’s... MORE

Iraq’s Shia Warlords and Their Militias: Political and Security Challenges and Options
June 3, 2015 — Author: Dr Norman Cigar View the Executive SummaryAs America’s de facto co-belligerents who often share the same battlespace in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, the presence and activity of Iraq’s Shia warlords and their militias have an impact on U.S. interests and policies at both the strategic and operational levels. The... MORE

From Cooperation to Competition: The Future of U.S.-Russian Relations
May 28, 2015 — Authors: COL Gregory K Anderson, LTC Karen LT Briggman, Dr John R Deni, LTC Joseph E Hilbert, COL Gert-Jan Kooij, LTC Christopher T Lay, Dr James C McNaughtonRussian aggression in 2014 caught U.S. policy and strategy off guard, forcing reactive measures and reevaluation of the U.S. approach toward Russia. Moscow employed nonlinear methodologies and... MORE

The Growling Bear or “Why The Army Owes Mr. Putin a Favor”
March 2, 2015 — Lieutenant Colonel Michael A. AdelbergThe Army owes Mr. Vladimir Putin a “thank-you.” So does the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—because his reckless aggression is providing both institutions a resurgent identity. Russia’s current actions provide the United States a unique opportunity, as well as foreshadowing the future. This is because... MORE

Strategic Insights: Would a Post-2011 Residual U.S. Force in Iraq Have Changed Anything?
February 9, 2015 — Dr. W. Andrew TerrillCurrently, U.S. policy analysts and governmental leaders are examining the rise of the Islamic State (IS) organization, particularly its seizure of vast expanses of Iraqi territory in the summer of 2014. People legitimately ask what could have been done and would a residual U.S. force in Iraq have prevented the spread of IS... MORE

Turkey’s New Regional Security Role: Implications for the United States
September 1, 2014 — Author: Dr Richard Weitz View the Executive SummaryUntil a few years ago, the relationship between Washington and Ankara was perennially troubled and occasionally terrible. Turkey opposed the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq and complained that the Pentagon was allowing Iraqi Kurds too much autonomy, leading to deteriorating security along the... MORE

Nigerian Unity: In the Balance
June 14, 2013 — Authors: LTC Clarence J Bouchat (USAF, Ret), Mr Gerald McLoughlin View the Executive SummaryNigeria’s future as a unified state is in jeopardy. Those who make or execute U.S. policy will find it difficult to advance U.S. interests in Africa without an understanding of the pressures that tear and bind Nigeria. Despite this, the centrifugal forces... MORE

Arms Control and Proliferation Challenges to the Reset Policy
November 1, 2011 — Author: Dr Stephen J Blank The current U.S. reset policy with Russia involves efforts to blaze a path of mutual cooperation on arms control and proliferation. In arms control, we see determined administration attempts to promote greater nuclear reductions in the direction of nuclear zero, including reductions in tactical nuclear weapons. This... MORE

Understanding the North Korea Problem: Why It Has Become the “Land of Lousy Options”
July 1, 2011 — Author: COL William A Boik This monograph provides a timely analysis and thoughtful insights into the challenges faced by the United States in developing a strategy for North Korea. The author examines the complex history of U.S. policy toward North Korea over the last decade that has left the United States in a position of having virtually no... MORE

Improvised Explosive Devices in Iraq, 2003-09: A Case of Operational Surprise and Institutional Response

Dealing with Political Ferment in Latin America: The Populist Revival, the Emergence of the Center, and Implications for U.S. Policy
September 1, 2009 — Author: Dr Hal Brands The current political dynamics in Latin America is analyzed, and their meaning for the United States is evaluated. The author argues that references to a uniform “left turn” in the region are misleading, and that Latin America is actually witnessing a dynamic competition between two very different forms of governance... MORE

U.S. Counterterrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa: Understanding Costs, Cultures, and Conflicts
September 1, 2008 — Author: Dr Donovan C Chau Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has never been the centerpiece of U.S. foreign and defense policy. Yet the current struggle between the United States and its allies against terrorist groups and individuals motivated by Islamic extremism thrusts SSA forward as a front in the global conflict. The author asks, centrally, what is the... MORE