Recent Publications

Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future-Second Edition
August 22, 2018 — Author: Mr Henry D SokolskiUnderestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future, Second Edition explores what nuclear future we may face over the next three decades and how we currently think about this future. Will nuclear weapons spread in the next 20 years to more nations than just North Korea and possibly Iran? How dire will the consequences be?... MORE

Cover for Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future-Second Edition

Should We Let the Bomb Spread?
November 1, 2016 — Author: Mr Henry D SokolskiNuclear deterrence and nonproliferation no longer enjoy the broad support they once did during the Cold War. Academics and security experts now question the ability of either to cope or check nuclear rogue states or terrorists. On the one hand, America’s closest allies—e.g., Japan and South Korea—believe American nuclear... MORE

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Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future
December 22, 2015 — Author: Mr Henry D SokolskiView the Executive Summary With the world focused on the nuclear crisis in Iran, it is tempting to think that addressing this case, North Korea, and the problem of nuclear terrorism is all that matters and is what matters most. Perhaps, but if states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military... MORE

Nuclear Weapons Materials Gone Missing: What Does History Teach?
November 1, 2014 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski View the Executive SummaryIn 2009, President Obama spotlighted nuclear terrorism as one of the top threats to international security, launching an international effort to identify, secure, and dispose of global stocks of weapons-usable nuclear materials—namely highly enriched uranium and weapons-grade plutonium. Since... MORE

Cover for Nuclear Weapons Materials Gone Missing: What Does History Teach?

Moving Beyond Pretense: Nuclear Power and Nonproliferation
June 1, 2014 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski View the Executive SummaryThe U.S. President and nearly all his critics agree that the spread of nuclear weapons and the possibility of their seizure and potential use is the greatest danger facing the United States and the world. Looking at the way government and industry officials downplay the risks of civilian nuclear... MORE

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Nuclear Weapons Security Crises: What Does History Teach?
July 30, 2013 — Authors: Mr Henry D Sokolski, Dr Bruno Tertrais View the Executive SummaryAt the height of the Cultural Revolution a Chinese long-range nuclear missile is fired within the country, and the nuclear warhead it is carrying detonates. A French nuclear device is exploded in Algeria during a coup there. The Soviet empire has collapsed, and shots are... MORE

The Next Arms Race
July 1, 2012 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski The New Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (New START) agreement was reached in 2011, and both Russia and the United States are bringing nuclear strategic warhead deployments down to roughly 1,500 on each side. In the next round of strategic arms reduction talks, though, U.S. officials hope to cut far deeper; perhaps as low... MORE

Nuclear Power’s Global Expansion: Weighing Its Costs and Risks
December 1, 2010 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski When security and arms control analysts list what has helped keep nuclear weapons technologies from spreading, energy economics is rarely, if ever, mentioned. Yet, large civilian nuclear energy programs can—and have—brought states quite a way towards developing nuclear weapons; and it has been market economics, more than... MORE

Cover for Nuclear Power's Global Expansion: Weighing Its Costs and Risks

Reviewing the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
April 1, 2010 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski As currently interpreted, it is difficult to see why the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) warrants much support as a nonproliferation convention. Most foreign ministries, including that of Iran and the United States, insist that Article IV of the NPT recognizes the “inalienable right” of all states to develop... MORE

Pakistan’s Nuclear Future: Reining in the Risk
December 1, 2009 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski Unfortunately, a nuclear terrorist act is only one—and hardly the most probable—of several frightening security threats Pakistan now faces or poses. We know that traditional acts of terrorism and conventional military crises in Southwest Asia have nearly escalated into wars and, more recently, even threatened Indian and... MORE

Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter
January 1, 2009 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski, Mr Robert Zarate Pioneers of nuclear-age policy analysis, Albert Wohlstetter (1913-1997) and Roberta Wohlstetter (1912-2007) emerged as two of America's most consequential, innovative and controversial strategists. Through the clarity of their thinking, the rigor of their research, and the persistence of their... MORE

Falling Behind: International Scrutiny of the Peaceful Atom
February 1, 2008 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski If possible, it would be useful to enhance the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) ability to detect and prevent nuclear diversions. This would not only reduce the current risk of nuclear proliferation, it would make the further expansion of nuclear power much less risky. The question is what is possible? To... MORE