Recent Publications

Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future-Second Edition
August 22, 2018 — Author: Mr Henry D SokolskiUnderestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future, Second Edition explores what nuclear future we may face over the next three decades and how we currently think about this future. Will nuclear weapons spread in the next 20 years to more nations than just North Korea and possibly Iran? How dire will the consequences be?... MORE

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Strategic Insights: Nuclear Posture Review: Three Reasons the Army Should Care
February 14, 2018 — Author: Dr Michael FitzsimmonsDebate over the Trump administration’s new Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) is now in full and predictable bloom. While many of its conclusions demonstrate continuity with the Obama administration’s modernization plans, controversy has centered on two of the review’s recommendations: to deploy new low-yield weapons on... MORE

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Should We Let the Bomb Spread?
November 1, 2016 — Author: Mr Henry D SokolskiNuclear deterrence and nonproliferation no longer enjoy the broad support they once did during the Cold War. Academics and security experts now question the ability of either to cope or check nuclear rogue states or terrorists. On the one hand, America’s closest allies—e.g., Japan and South Korea—believe American nuclear... MORE

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India's Evolving Nuclear Force and Implications for U.S. Strategy in the Asia-Pacific
June 1, 2016 — Authors: Mr Yogesh Joshi, Dr Frank O'Donnell, Dr Harsh V PantSince India declared itself a nuclear weapon state in May 1998, its nuclear capabilities have grown significantly. India is now on the verge of acquiring a triad of nuclear delivery systems. Its increasing nuclear profile has also stirred a debate on its stated nuclear doctrine involving... MORE

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Nuclear Weapons Materials Gone Missing: What Does History Teach?
November 1, 2014 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski View the Executive SummaryIn 2009, President Obama spotlighted nuclear terrorism as one of the top threats to international security, launching an international effort to identify, secure, and dispose of global stocks of weapons-usable nuclear materials—namely highly enriched uranium and weapons-grade plutonium. Since... MORE

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Colloquium Brief: CBRNe: The Ongoing Challenge – Kingston Conference On International Security
September 29, 2014 — Dr. Robert J. Bunker Key Insights. Little ‘e’ (explosive events) suicide bombings have their conceptual origins in tactical actions (destructive) between military forces—including World War II Japanese Kamikazes—that, in time, evolved into acts of terrorism with strategic (disruptive) political outcomes. IED fatigue exists for troops in... MORE

Moving Beyond Pretense: Nuclear Power and Nonproliferation
June 1, 2014 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski View the Executive SummaryThe U.S. President and nearly all his critics agree that the spread of nuclear weapons and the possibility of their seizure and potential use is the greatest danger facing the United States and the world. Looking at the way government and industry officials downplay the risks of civilian nuclear... MORE

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Op-Ed: Can Sanctions Be More Effective Than Military Action In Iran?
December 7, 2012 — Dr. W. Andrew Terrill The United States and its allies are currently seeking to use international sanctions to prevent Iran from developing the technology leading to a nuclear weapons capability. It remains uncertain if the sanctions will be effective, and the U.S. leadership has correspondingly announced that all options—including military... MORE

The Next Arms Race
July 1, 2012 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski The New Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (New START) agreement was reached in 2011, and both Russia and the United States are bringing nuclear strategic warhead deployments down to roughly 1,500 on each side. In the next round of strategic arms reduction talks, though, U.S. officials hope to cut far deeper; perhaps as low... MORE

Tactical Nuclear Weapons and NATO
April 1, 2012 — Authors: Dr Jeffrey D McCausland, Dr Tom Nichols, Dr Douglas Stuart NATO has been a “nuclear” alliance since its inception. Nuclear weapons have served the dual purpose of being part of NATO military planning as well as being central to the Alliance’s deterrence strategy. For over 4 decades, NATO allies sought to find conventional and nuclear... MORE

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Nuclear Power’s Global Expansion: Weighing Its Costs and Risks
December 1, 2010 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski When security and arms control analysts list what has helped keep nuclear weapons technologies from spreading, energy economics is rarely, if ever, mentioned. Yet, large civilian nuclear energy programs can—and have—brought states quite a way towards developing nuclear weapons; and it has been market economics, more than... MORE

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Reviewing the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
April 1, 2010 — Author: Mr Henry D Sokolski As currently interpreted, it is difficult to see why the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) warrants much support as a nonproliferation convention. Most foreign ministries, including that of Iran and the United States, insist that Article IV of the NPT recognizes the “inalienable right” of all states to develop... MORE