Recent Publications

The Turning Point for Russian Foreign Policy
May 25, 2017 — Author: Mr Keir GilesView the Executive Summary This Letort Paper analyzes the drivers of assertive military action by Russia, as exemplified by interventions in Ukraine and Syria. It identifies key turning points in Russia’s perception of external threat, and the roots of Russian responses to this threat making use of a capacity for military,... MORE

The Quest for Military Cooperation in North Africa: Prospects and Challenges
October 25, 2016 — Author: Dr Mohammed El-KatiriView the Executive SummaryNorth Africa's security landscape has worsened in the aftermath of the political events of the Arab Spring. Libya's dire state of affairs has had significant repercussions not only on its internal security and stability, but also on that of its neighboring countries, particularly the ones with... MORE

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An Arab NATO in the Making? Middle Eastern Military Cooperation Since 2011
September 6, 2016 — Author: Dr Florence GaubView the Executive SummaryArab military cooperation has been, over the past century, mostly a history of failures. Whether the Arab League’s Defence Pact or the Middle East Command, ideas for collective security in the region all failed to move beyond the state of declarations. Most of the time, Arab states were either at... MORE

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Arab Threat Perceptions and the Future of the U.S. Military Presence in the Middle East
October 22, 2015 — Author: Dr W Andrew TerrillView the Executive Summary The threat perceptions of many Arab states aligned with the United States have changed significantly as a result of such dramatic events as the 2011 U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq, the emergence and then fading of the Arab Spring, the rise of Iranian power and Tehran’s nuclear agreement with... MORE

The Gulf Moment: Arab Relations Since 2011
May 4, 2015 — Author: Dr Florence Gaub View the Executive SummaryThis monograph examines the impact that the “Arab Spring” has had on how Arab states relate to each other post-regime change and post-Islamist electoral victory. It shows that the region is undergoing a profound change as some traditional regional policy actors are paralyzed by internal turmoil... MORE

United States-Gulf Cooperation Council Security Coopeeration in a Multipolar World
October 1, 2014 — Author: Dr Mohammed El-Katiri View the Executive SummaryMilitary and security cooperation with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states is of continuing importance for the United States, given the region's pivotal location in the Middle East and proximity to Iran. But recent developments in the defense posture of the United States, together with the... MORE

After the Spring: Reforming Arab Armies
September 11, 2014 — Author: Dr Florence Gaub View the Executive SummaryAs the Arab Spring has renewed Western interest in the political, as well as military, role of Arab armed forces, reform—rather than mere assistance—is crucial. In this monograph, the author focuses on the structural aspects of reform from which the Arab Spring forces would benefit. Seven features... MORE

Revival of Political Islam in the Aftermath of Arab Uprisings: Implications for the Region and Beyond
July 21, 2014 — Author: Dr Mohammed El-Katiri View the Executive SummaryRegime change during the Arab Spring allowed Islamist political forces that had long been marginalized to achieve political influence in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. Morocco’s first government led by an Islamist party has been in power since January 2012. This trend caused widespread concern... MORE

What Is Next for Mali? The Roots of Conflict and Challenges to Stability
November 20, 2013 — Author: Dr Dona J Stewart View the Executive SummaryIn March 2012, the government of Mali, one of the most touted symbols of Africa’s democratic potential, fell in a military-executed coup. At the same time, a 4-decades old rebellion among Tuaregs seeking autonomy or independence reached new heights fueled by weapons from Libya and the belief that... MORE

War and Insurgency in the Western Sahara
May 13, 2013 — Author: Geoffrey Jensen View the Executive SummaryAt a crucial crossroads between Africa and Europe, the Mediterranean and the Atlantic, and the “Arab World” and the West, Morocco has long had a special place in U.S. diplomacy and strategic planning. Since September 11, 2001, Morocco’s importance to the United States has only increased, and the... MORE

The Prospects for Security Sector Reform in Tunisia: A Year After the Revolution
September 1, 2012 — Author: Dr Querine Hanlon In the year since the revolution, Tunisia has achieved what no other Arab Spring country has managed: peaceful transition to democratic rule through national elections widely viewed to be free and fair. The legacy of the previous regime, however, remains. Dr. Querine Hanlon assesses the prospects for Security Sector Reform... MORE

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Lessons of the Iraqi De-Ba’athification Program for Iraq’s Future and the Arab Revolutions
May 1, 2012 — Author: Dr W Andrew TerrillThis monograph considers both the future of Iraq and the differences and similarities between events in Iraq and the Arab Spring states. The author analyzes the nature of Iraqi de-Ba’athification and carefully evaluates the rationales and results of actions taken by both Americans and Iraqis involved in the process. While... MORE

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