Recent Publications

“Moscow in the Middle East”
April 10, 2021 — In 1971 Dr. John R. Thomas documented the involvement of the Soviet Union in the Middle East from the start of the Cold War. Like its name and borders, the motivations for that country’s involvement in the region have changed. Russia today promulgates relationships with the governments of the Middle East in a nonideological, more limited manner... MORE

Strategic Insights: The Great Purge and the Future of the Turkish Military
October 30, 2016 — Dr. W. Andrew Terrill The full story of the July 15-16, 2016, Turkish coup attempt may not be known for some time, but it is clear that a limited number of officers attempted to overthrow the government and either capture or kill elected President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The government has accused these officers of belonging to the Fethullah Gulen... MORE

Cover for Strategic Insights: The Great Purge and the Future of the Turkish Military

Strategic Insights: The Sinister Shadow of Escalating Middle Eastern Sectarianism
January 21, 2016 — Dr. W. Andrew Terrill In one of the opening scenes of the 1973 movie, The Exorcist, an older Catholic priest stands among the ruins of the ancient Mesopotamian city of Hatra.1 In the movie, he views an ancient statue of an Assyrian wind demon and stares directly into the stone representation of his enemy’s face. In the background, two extremely... MORE

Cover for Strategic Insights: The Sinister Shadow of Escalating Middle Eastern Sectarianism

Strategic Insights: Will the Russians Escalate in Syria?
November 6, 2015 — Dr. W. Andrew TerrillIn an unexpected effort to protect a key Middle Eastern ally, the Kremlin intervened in Syria with military forces in late September 2015. This effort was undertaken to protect the Bashar Assad regime from Islamist and secular rebels now threatening his regime. Moscow initiated this action with a limited force that may be... MORE

Strategic Insights: The Russian Intervention and the Internal Dynamics of Syria
October 1, 2015 — Dr. W. Andrew TerrillThe Syrian civil war began in March 2011 and has claimed nearly 250,000 lives so far. After over 4 years of internal fighting, the Kremlin has decided to expand its role in this conflict by moving combat aircraft and some ground troops to Syria to support the Bashar al-Assad government. These actions seem like a clear prelude... MORE

What is Next for Yemen?
April 24, 2015 — Dr. W. Andrew TerrillThe large and strategically located country of Yemen is again in crisis. The moderate government of President Abed Rabbu Hadi has been driven from several key cities, including the capital of Sanaa, by the military offensives of Shi’ite Houthi rebels and their allies from the former regime of ex-president Ali Abdullah Saleh... MORE

Strategic Insights: Would a Post-2011 Residual U.S. Force in Iraq Have Changed Anything?
February 9, 2015 — Dr. W. Andrew TerrillCurrently, U.S. policy analysts and governmental leaders are examining the rise of the Islamic State (IS) organization, particularly its seizure of vast expanses of Iraqi territory in the summer of 2014. People legitimately ask what could have been done and would a residual U.S. force in Iraq have prevented the spread of IS... MORE

What Will Happen to Syria’s Christians?
May 5, 2014 — Dr. W. Andrew Terrill The Syrian civil war is widely understood to have a strong sectarian component. In this conflict, Bashar Assad’s Alawite–dominated regime is seeking to crush an uprising led by majority Sunni Arabs. The Alawites are a branch of Shi’ite Islam and have been supported by Shi’ite allies including Iran, the Lebanese terrorist group... MORE

Op-Ed: Will the Syrian Civil War Last 10 More Years?
December 30, 2013 — Dr. W. Andrew TerrillThe Syrian civil war began in March 2011 when large numbers of peaceful protestors began demanding an end to the brutal autocratic rule of President Bashar Assad. Many Syrian demonstrators hoped that their dictatorship could be overthrown as easily as those in Tunisia and Egypt as part of the regional process now known as the... MORE

Op-Ed: Drones Are Making A Difference In Yemen
March 13, 2013 — Dr. W. Andrew TerrillUnmanned aerial vehicles (often known as drones) have recently been the subject of intense controversy due to their use in remote parts of the world to target individuals designated as terrorists. This concern is appropriate, because many aspects of their use are clearly in need of scrupulous legal and ethical consideration... MORE

Op-Ed: Can Sanctions Be More Effective Than Military Action In Iran?
December 7, 2012 — Dr. W. Andrew Terrill The United States and its allies are currently seeking to use international sanctions to prevent Iran from developing the technology leading to a nuclear weapons capability. It remains uncertain if the sanctions will be effective, and the U.S. leadership has correspondingly announced that all options—including military... MORE

Breaking News Analysis: The Future of the U.S. Political and Military Relationship with Egypt
July 9, 2012 — Dr. W. Andrew Terrill The Egyptian political system is currently undergoing significant change, although the outcome of this process remains subject to a great deal of uncertainty. There are numerous influential players involved in the struggle for political power, but the two that are of greatest interest at the present time are the Muslim... MORE