Recent Publications

The Approaching Implosion of Venezuela and Strategic Implications for the United States
July 10, 2015 — Dr. R. Evan EllisThe U.S. response to the ever deepening political and economic crisis in Venezuela, and the regime’s increasingly aggressive behavior toward its neighbors and the international community, is compelling evidence that the Barack Obama administration is sincere in respecting the sovereignty of nations of Latin America and the... MORE

The Strategic Importance of the Global Oil Market
June 4, 2015 — Author: Dr Leif Rosenberger View the Executive SummaryThis Letort Paper analyzes the new global oil market. It shows how the price of oil reflects the confluence of four interrelated factors. First, the Paper explores why the supply of oil has been soaring in the world. Second, it explains why the demand for oil has been relatively weak. Third, it... MORE

Regionalizing East Mediterranean Gas: Energy Security, Stability, and the U.S. Role
December 1, 2014 — Author: Ms Laura El-Katiri, Dr Mohammed El-KatiriView the Executive SummaryThe East Mediterranean has been witnessing an unparalleled natural resource boom since the late-2000s, when Israel, followed by Cyprus, made its first significant offshore hydrocarbon discoveries in many years. These discoveries have since proven to be substantially larger... MORE

Strategic Insights: Can the EU Declare Energy Independence From Russia?
November 4, 2014 — 2LT Scott CowmanSecond Lieutenant Scott Cowman is a reservist with the U.S. Army. From January to May 2014, during his last semester at Dickinson College, he was an intern with the Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College. The worsening situation in Ukraine has yet again reminded the European Union (EU) and the United States that Europe... MORE

Cover for Strategic Insights: Can the EU Declare Energy Independence From Russia?

Turkey-Kurdish Regional Government Relations After the U.S. Withdrawal From Iraq: Putting the Kurds on the Map?
March 1, 2014 — Author: Mr Bill Park View the Executive SummaryThe withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from Iraq at the end of 2011 left behind a set of unresolved problems in the relationship between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and the Federal Government in Baghdad—notably relating to the disputed boundaries of the KRG, and the extent of its autonomy... MORE

Cover for Turkey-Kurdish Regional Government Relations After the U.S. Withdrawal From Iraq: Putting the Kurds on the Map?

Africa’s Booming Oil and Natural Gas Exploration and Production: National Security Implications for the United States and China
December 30, 2013 — Author: Mr David E BrownView the Executive Summary Two key long-term energy trends are shifting the strategic balance between the United States and China, the world’s superpower rivals in the 21st century: first, a domestic boom in U.S. shale oil and gas is dramatically boosting America’s energy security; second, the frenetic and successful search... MORE

New Realities: Energy Security in the 2010s and Implications for the U.S. Military
December 30, 2013 — Dr. Robert J. Bunker, LTC John D. Colwell, JrRevolutionary changes among energy producers and dramatically altered patterns of energy consumption across the planet are having profound implications for American national security in general and the U.S. Army specifically. For example, the reduced saliency of Africa and the Middle East as energy... MORE

The Future of the Arab Gulf Monarchies in the Age of Uncertainties
June 10, 2013 — Author: Dr Mohammed El-Katiri View the Executive SummarySeismic cultural and political shifts are under way in the Arab Gulf monarchies. The political upheavals and transitions that have swept through the Arab world over the last 2 years have not toppled the Arab Gulf rulers, but did not leave them untouched, either. Rulers of Gulf Cooperation... MORE

The Conflicts in Yemen and U.S. National Security
January 1, 2011 — Author: Dr W Andrew Terrill Yemen is not currently a failed state, but it is experiencing huge political and economic problems that can have a direct impact on U.S. interests in the region. It has a rapidly expanding population with a resource base that is limited and already leaves much of the current population in poverty. The government obtains... MORE

Cover for Extremist Migration: A Foreign Jihadist Fighter Threat Assessment

Do Oil Exports Fuel Defense Spending?
February 1, 2010 — Author: Dr Clayton K S Chun This monograph explores the impact that oil revenue had on the national defense spending of five oil-exporting countries. Despite periods of falling oil revenues, these countries typically did not lower defense spending. In some cases, defense spending increased sharply, or the rate of decrease was much lower than the... MORE

Addicted to Oil: Strategic Implications of American Oil Policy
May 1, 2006 — Author: CMDR Thomas D Kraemer In his 2006 State of the Union address, President George W. Bush proclaimed that "America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world." He announced it was time for the United States to "move beyond a petroleum-based economy and make our dependence on Middle Eastern oil a thing of the... MORE

Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran
November 1, 2005 — Authors: Mr Patrick Clawson, Mr Henry D Sokolski As Iran edges closer to acquiring a nuclear bomb and its missiles extend an ever darker diplomatic shadow over the Middle East and Europe, Iran is likely to pose three threats. First, Iran could dramatically up the price of oil by interfering with the free passage of vessels in and through the... MORE