Recent Publications

Corruption, Legitimacy, and Stability: Implications for the U.S. Army
June 6, 2017 — Author: Dr Shima D KeeneView the Executive Summary Corruption increases the level of instability and the risk of conflict by undermining the legitimacy and credibility of state institutions. It can be both a cause and effect of poor leadership and governance. States emerging from conflict are particularly vulnerable to corruption, due to the lack... MORE

Strategic Insights: Caribbean Security Issues
May 16, 2017 — Dr. R. Evan EllisINTRODUCTIONOutside of military, law enforcement, and some academic circles, security issues are rarely part of the discourse about the Caribbean. Yet, during the Cold War, the region’s contiguity with the United States made its largest island, Cuba, the focal point of the world’s closest publicly known approximation to nuclear... MORE

Strategic Insights: Syria Safe Zones
January 9, 2017 — Dr. Azeem IbrahimSummary. Diplomacy has all but failed in Syria, and it is difficult to envisage when and how diplomatic efforts could be restarted in light of the continued difficulties between Russia and the West. With these difficulties, it is imperative to change focus and tackle the one area where the United States might still be able to have... MORE

The Limits of Offshore Balancing
September 24, 2015 — Author: Dr Hal BrandsView the Executive Summary Is offshore balancing the right grand strategy for America? Is it time for Washington to roll back the vast system of overseas security commitments and forward military deployments that have anchored its international posture since World War II? This monograph argues that the answer to these questions... MORE

Strategic Insights: Fragile States Cannot Be Fixed With State-Building
July 27, 2015 — Dr. Robert D. LambThe problem with the way the international community thinks about and responds to fragile states is not that we do not understand “fragility,” its causes, and its cures, but that we think of them as “states,” as coherent units of analysis. As a result of this strategic level mistake, efforts to build state capacity to contain... MORE

Operationalizing Counter Threat Finance Strategies
December 1, 2014 — Author: Dr Shima D KeeneView the Executive Summary This Letort Paper describes effective Counter Threat Finance strategies as a specific area where the capability of U.S. and allied militaries can be augmented for the purpose of targeted action against adversaries. With appropriate analysis and exploitation, financial data can be used to reveal... MORE

Cover for Operationalizing Counter Threat Finance Strategies

The Causes of Instability in Nigeria and Implications for the United States
August 19, 2013 — Author: LTC Clarence J Bouchat (USAF, Ret) View the Executive SummaryAn understanding the political economy of Nigeria is needed to reveal the root causes of its many ethnic, religious, economic, and political problems and to address them for the long term. The pressures now weighing on Nigeria could literally fracture the state along deep fault... MORE

Return of the Balkans: Challenges to European Integration and U.S. Disengagement
May 31, 2013 — Author: Mr Janusz Bugajski View the Executive SummaryFor the first time in its modern history the entire Balkan Peninsula has the opportunity to co-exist under one security and developmental umbrella combining NATO and the European Union (EU). Unfortunately, European and American leaders have been unable to complete such a unique historic vision,... MORE

Venezuela as an Exporter of 4th Generation Warfare Instability
December 1, 2012 — Author: Dr Max G Manwaring Almost no one seems to understand the Marxist-Leninist foundations of Hugo Chavez’s political thought. It becomes evident, however, in the general vision of his “Bolivarian Revolution.” The abbreviated concept is to destroy the old foreign-dominated (U.S. dominated) political and economic systems in the Americas, to take... MORE

Cover for Venezuela as an Exporter of 4th Generation Warfare Instability

Drug Trafficking, Violence, and Instability
April 1, 2012 — Authors: Dr Vanda Felbab-Brown, Dr Phil Williams Although challenges posed by various kinds of violent armed groups initially appear highly diverse and unrelated to one another, in fact they all reflect the increasing connections between security and governance and, in particular, the relationship between poor governance and violent armed groups... MORE

Cover for Drug Trafficking, Violence, and Instability

Civilian Skills for African Military Officers to Resolve the Infrastructure, Economic Development, and Stability Crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa
March 1, 2011 — Author: Ms Diane E Chido For decades, a lack of economic opportunity has caused instability and violence in Sub-Saharan Africa. Fortunately, U.S. Africa Command (USAFRICOM) is in a unique position to increase stability and reduce the causes of violence and extremism through new partnerships and military-to-military training. The current training... MORE

Drug Trafficking, Violence, and Instability in Mexico, Colombia, and the Caribbean: Implications for U.S. National Security
January 1, 2010 — Authors: Mr Evan Brown, Dr Dallas D Owens Key Insights from the conference included:(1) The relationships between powerful criminal groups and states are complex and create transnational issues of corruption and the production, transportation, marketing, and consumption of illegal products and services that have national security implications for... MORE